South American Leagues · resolved market
Will CA Independiente vs. CA Unión end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1e9dcaed00d4dd06d083132446aaa9f6592c1701c62318730c8659dffb9a54b8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,937
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,937 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc686…5a55backed Yes | 12c | 1,477$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,299.83 | 465 | 30.3%141 W · 324 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 16c | 1,319$214 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,105.08 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked No | 79c | 1,258$995 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$994.89 | 1,091 | 55.6%607 W · 484 L | -19.8wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed Yes | 14c | 1,055$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$908.65 | 154 | 24%37 W · 117 L | -9.6wins | -0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -26%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2f31…e2b6backed Yes | 13c | 900$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$783 | 93 | 63.4%59 W · 34 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed No | 70c | 376.67$263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$262.55 | 1,487 | 48.7%724 W · 763 L | -17.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Yes | 7c | 367$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$341.31 | 1,537 | 45.2%695 W · 842 L | +21.3wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Yes | 30c | 278.69$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.08 | 3,405 | 51.3%1,748 W · 1,657 L | +21.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb5…2b6abacked Yes | 7c | 270.27$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250.27 | 391 | 27.1%106 W · 285 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked No | 69c | 249.15$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.95 | 1,355 | 49.7%674 W · 681 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6580…6fa8backed Yes | 31c | 235.6$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.56 | 43 | 20.9%9 W · 34 L | -3.8wins | -0.09per pick | 30cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Yes | 17c | 214.61$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.11 | 2,388 | 51.8%1,237 W · 1,151 L | -9.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0742…86a0backed Yes | 10c | 206.18$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.06 | 62 | 21%13 W · 49 L | -4.7wins | -0.08per pick | 29cpaid | -21%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa179…258ebacked Yes | 80c | 203.99$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.48 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4cd5…8afbbacked Yes | 13c | 200$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.65 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 20cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39fd…849ebacked Yes | 26c | 169.23$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.54 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d1e…6b94backed Yes | 30c | 166.15$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.15 | 111 | 40.5%45 W · 66 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 9c | 140.19$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.17 | 100 | 58%58 W · 42 L | +6.7wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x588b…8593backed Yes | 22c | 133.83$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.83 | 118 | 19.5%23 W · 95 L | -4.6wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd983…d92dbacked Yes | 23c | 128.67$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.67 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -1.3wins | -0.11per pick | 27cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xabfb…12e5backed Yes | 13c | 112.18$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.51 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | +1.8wins | +0.08per pick | 23cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1813…4dfebacked Yes | 30c | 110.95$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.61 | 270 | 53%143 W · 127 L | +8.2wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2dc0…e57dbacked Yes | 30c | 100.33$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.33 | 256 | 25%64 W · 192 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Yes | 30c | 99.99$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.99 | 836 | 42.9%359 W · 477 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2d…fbf5backed No | 68c | 94.65$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.02 | 105 | 50.5%53 W · 52 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0aee…bddfbacked Yes | 31c | 93.26$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.58 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa178…11a2backed Yes | 23c | 86.47$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.47 | 769 | 51.5%396 W · 373 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x56e6…45e9backed No | 70c | 74.82$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.37 | 73 | 52.1%38 W · 35 L | -3.5wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x53c5…cb95backed Yes | 16c | 67.4$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.68 | 31 | 54.8%17 W · 14 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf09b…5971backed Yes | 18c | 61.44$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.44 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 34cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c77…8f06backed No | 70c | 57.14$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 79 | 48.1%38 W · 41 L | -9.5wins | -0.12per pick | 60cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Yes | 30c | 54$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.8 | 2,611 | 54.2%1,415 W · 1,196 L | +25.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xceb7…391ebacked Yes | 53c | 42.5$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.87 | 65 | 72.3%47 W · 18 L | +7.7wins | +0.12per pick | 60cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed No | 74c | 30$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.05 | 948 | 48.1%456 W · 492 L | -18.5wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f8…5bf1backed No | 75c | 21$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.75 | 200 | 55%110 W · 90 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed3f…2d57backed No | 72c | 17.88$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.87 | 114 | 61.4%70 W · 44 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1624…bf63backed No | 79c | 14.29$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.29 | 211 | 32.7%69 W · 142 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will CA Independiente vs. CA Unión end in a draw?this page
- Will CA Independiente win on 2026-03-10?No won
- Will CA Unión win on 2026-03-10?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.