Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on August 24?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x657042696b5077565888bcd48445dc15baf2425efb8ffc8e0ddb7b471532b2f4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,409
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,771
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,409 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet's whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7205…3377backed No | 53c | 554.31$293 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$261.46 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 53cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…cafebacked Yes | 43c | 236.98$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.96 | 265 | 56.2%149 W · 116 L | +16.2wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 74c | 235.71$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.81 | 1,901 | 55.9%1,062 W · 839 L | -33.7wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58b9…e12fbacked No | 61c | 229.2$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.27 | 243 | 49.4%120 W · 123 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 36c | 165.32$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.63 | 10,952 | 37.4%4,094 W · 6,858 L | +432.6wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +16%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 62c | 144.13$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.1 | 4,739 | 47.5%2,249 W · 2,490 L | -186.8wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -13%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 57c | 133.3$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.35 | 4,467 | 65.1%2,907 W · 1,560 L | +14.9wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf33c…488cbacked Yes | 41c | 121.95$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 114 | 45.6%52 W · 62 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x25ed…463ebacked Yes | 11c | 117.3$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.98 | 35 | 37.1%13 W · 22 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed Yes | 47c | 110$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.7 | 2,439 | 58%1,414 W · 1,025 L | -13.4wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed Yes | 47c | 106$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.82 | 997 | 57.2%570 W · 427 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc1…647abacked Yes | 39c | 89.15$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.07 | 632 | 47.3%299 W · 333 L | -9.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc39d…adafbacked Yes | 46c | 82.48$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.94 | 40 | 45%18 W · 22 L | -3.0wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 52c | 74.88$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.76 | 9,962 | 45.9%4,572 W · 5,390 L | -309.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 22c | 72.06$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.94 | 5,625 | 47.8%2,687 W · 2,938 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 51c | 69.5$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.2 | 4,009 | 47.3%1,897 W · 2,112 L | +71.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb530…3c03backed Yes | 28c | 66.9$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.73 | 79 | 13.9%11 W · 68 L | -7.4wins | -0.09per pick | 23cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8220…2d1ebacked No | 53c | 64.48$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.31 | 82 | 26.8%22 W · 60 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed No | 51c | 63$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.02 | 1,671 | 37.9%633 W · 1,038 L | +25.5wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2753…e28abacked Yes | 46c | 55.08$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.61 | 447 | 60%268 W · 179 L | +18.9wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ebb…405abacked Yes | 44c | 51.16$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.51 | 792 | 40.9%324 W · 468 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x250e…f17bbacked Yes | 47c | 50.49$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.73 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed Yes | 47c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 1,314 | 54%709 W · 605 L | -26.1wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4673…b24abacked Yes | 47c | 47.4$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.28 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | -2.3wins | -0.09per pick | 57cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x95d3…6effbacked Yes | 41c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.4 | 535 | 48.2%258 W · 277 L | +21.6wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 56c | 38.88$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.12 | 5,003 | 53.5%2,678 W · 2,325 L | +31.9wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked Yes | 48c | 37.93$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.02 | 2,340 | 58.7%1,373 W · 967 L | -4.1wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d7c…93b2backed No | 58c | 35$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.7 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -2.0wins | -0.12per pick | 47cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x53fb…e92abacked No | 59c | 32.2$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 170 | 58.8%100 W · 70 L | -7.4wins | -0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 71c | 30.44$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.96 | 2,233 | 56%1,250 W · 983 L | +47.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf361…08f6backed No | 54c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 99 | 59.6%59 W · 40 L | +4.4wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa15b…b4b5backed Yes | 47c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 58c | 28.85$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.19 | 3,725 | 33.8%1,258 W · 2,467 L | -194.2wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe58b…d6f5backed Yes | 36c | 27.41$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 75 | 32%24 W · 51 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 78c | 27.03$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.93 | 2,254 | 58.2%1,311 W · 943 L | +84.7wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed Yes | 47c | 26.61$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.43 | 665 | 21.8%145 W · 520 L | -27.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 78c | 26.47$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.82 | 2,216 | 56.8%1,258 W · 958 L | +65.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 80c | 23.22$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.76 | 2,223 | 56.1%1,247 W · 976 L | +54.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa589…9ec9backed No | 57c | 20.86$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.97 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b8a…9b28backed No | 59c | 20.1$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.24 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5503…1248backed No | 59c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -3.4wins | -0.24per pick | 60cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x065d…a672backed No | 57c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on August 24?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C on August 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 18°C on August 24?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 20°C on August 24?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
- The position was at least $10.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.