Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on May 16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x65a7a899b4d9794335b8006b831f189a4bb053393de1cb9d2eb235b61cafd00e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,641
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,587
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,641 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 1c | 4,644$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.93 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x607c…8e7ebacked Yes | 3c | 866.67$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.79 | 960 | 15%144 W · 816 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10d5…33fdbacked Yes | 2c | 769.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 308 | 32.5%100 W · 208 L | +14.7wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 10c | 492.33$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc70a…d065backed Yes | 5c | 300$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 27cpaid | -69.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 7c | 269.74$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.88 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01ce…27a2backed Yes | 19c | 200$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.52 | 553 | 36.7%203 W · 350 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…deeabacked Yes | 20c | 190.72$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.58 | 1,072 | 36.6%392 W · 680 L | +25.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x942d…278ebacked Yes | 9c | 190.14$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.6 | 434 | 30.9%134 W · 300 L | +10.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +78.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes | 10c | 188.09$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.81 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x94da…25b5backed Yes | 8c | 187.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 370 | 7.8%29 W · 341 L | -5.2wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5024…3007backed Yes | 17c | 180.8$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.07 | 269 | 48.3%130 W · 139 L | +7.5wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +68.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f05…9b05backed Yes | 17c | 167.1$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.23 | 37 | 27%10 W · 27 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 18c | 164.4$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.37 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9686…1701backed Yes | 11c | 130.97$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 351 | 33.6%118 W · 233 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85d1…cde6backed Yes | 19c | 104.43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10fe…9af6backed No | 38c | 100$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.05 | 72 | 30.6%22 W · 50 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | 0%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1648…c24bbacked Yes | 34c | 99.98$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.99 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -11%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x71ec…e48cbacked Yes | 13c | 80$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 99 | 21.2%21 W · 78 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f60…2618backed No | 30c | 70$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +4.1wins | +0.27per pick | 26cpaid | +213%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x97b7…6843backed Yes | 22c | 69.68$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad58…7624backed Yes | 25c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 542 | 32.3%175 W · 367 L | +10.3wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 73c | 46.74$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.49 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01f2…c3debacked Yes | 29c | 44.86$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.82 | 125 | 38.4%48 W · 77 L | -18.5wins | -0.15per pick | 53cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked Yes | 62c | 40$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.8 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x62a8…2132backed No | 71c | 25.67$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.44 | 714 | 64.3%459 W · 255 L | -37.4wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5848…1e49backed Yes | 63c | 24$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.12 | 863 | 62.9%543 W · 320 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe2cc…740ebacked No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x194b…e572backed No | 75c | 14.9$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.67 | 193 | 53.9%104 W · 89 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on May 16?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 19°C or below on May 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 20°C on May 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 21°C on May 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 22°C on May 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on May 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on May 16?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on May 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on May 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C or higher on May 16?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.