Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on May 16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa4e2b4311fa901556e9bfebe41d29538aa762ae81b882661058cf0bd0cfa3139
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $43,374
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $36,965
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $43,374 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 78 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xae2e…40adbacked Yes | 1c | 3,095$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.55 | 295 | 20.7%61 W · 234 L | +7.8wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1851…ae47backed Yes | 1c | 2,376$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.08 | 73 | 13.7%10 W · 63 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -68%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 12c | 830.46$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.66 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca65…f06fbacked Yes | 2c | 829.63$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x607c…8e7ebacked Yes | 10c | 640.58$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.62 | 960 | 15%144 W · 816 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cff…e0b6backed Yes | 10c | 600$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 202 | 30.2%61 W · 141 L | +4.8wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4dd…cfc6backed Yes | 20c | 500.5$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.6 | 72 | 40.3%29 W · 43 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x64e7…7d78backed Yes | 36c | 418.11$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e21…04ffbacked Yes | 49c | 408.48$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.88 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd3…ccacbacked Yes | 13c | 376.05$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.65 | 346 | 24.3%84 W · 262 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked No | 62c | 296.65$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.54 | 722 | 22.3%161 W · 561 L | -37.3wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6e0f…9a05backed Yes | 12c | 200$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 206 | 31.1%64 W · 142 L | -5.8wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8cc1…b9f8backed Yes | 20c | 199.99$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 349 | 22.9%80 W · 269 L | +9.3wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01ce…27a2backed Yes | 36c | 191.74$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.28 | 553 | 36.7%203 W · 350 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 7c | 181.17$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.07 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f05…9b05backed Yes | 39c | 169.54$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.36 | 37 | 27%10 W · 27 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 60c | 162.68$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.95 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 67c | 159$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.56 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb7…91c4backed No | 68c | 151.46$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.17 | 45 | 71.1%32 W · 13 L | +5.1wins | +0.11per pick | 60cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb1…9319backed Yes | 9c | 150$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 496 | 22.2%110 W · 386 L | +26.1wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2851…6b8cbacked No | 70c | 147.92$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.02 | 683 | 38.8%265 W · 418 L | +36.1wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9188…e046backed Yes | 26c | 140.75$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.97 | 569 | 21.8%124 W · 445 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4174…18fabacked No | 72c | 140.41$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.99 | 1,079 | 61.2%660 W · 419 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed No | 8c | 140.03$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.91 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51f6…9f18backed Yes | 16c | 132.3$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.17 | 146 | 59.6%87 W · 59 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…deeabacked Yes | 43c | 125.12$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.27 | 1,072 | 36.6%392 W · 680 L | +25.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc4…7ae7backed Yes | 16c | 124.76$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 236 | 33.5%79 W · 157 L | -9.0wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 73c | 117.74$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.06 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79d0…4dffbacked Yes | 33c | 112.48$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 64 | 26.6%17 W · 47 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes | 43c | 109.14$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.24 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x662e…4b20backed Yes | 30c | 108$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.32 | 120 | 55%66 W · 54 L | +16.4wins | +0.14per pick | 41cpaid | +48.3%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x3808…8b90backed Yes | 42c | 106.94$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 85 | 63.5%54 W · 31 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1648…c24bbacked Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -11%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x10fe…9af6backed No | 14c | 100$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86 | 72 | 30.6%22 W · 50 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | 0%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13eb…e57ebacked Yes | 28c | 94.39$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.22 | 116 | 24.1%28 W · 88 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b1…30b2backed No | 66c | 92$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.28 | 503 | 73.2%368 W · 135 L | +25.3wins | +0.05per pick | 68cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xddef…ea08backed Yes | 35c | 83.78$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.92 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3972…a677backed No | 67c | 81.4$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.73 | 817 | 56.4%461 W · 356 L | -23.0wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 21c | 80.21$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.54 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 18c | 77$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.01 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7554…0b84backed Yes | 37c | 73.69$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.25 | 140 | 40.7%57 W · 83 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc0b…a782backed Yes | 37c | 70.4$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.94 | 515 | 37.5%193 W · 322 L | +9.2wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7c…b00dbacked No | 63c | 70$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.9 | 786 | 63.6%500 W · 286 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 24c | 68.71$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.42 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x98d1…019abacked Yes | 46c | 67.05$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.95 | 255 | 36.9%94 W · 161 L | +17.3wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c2…d53dbacked No | 63c | 66.36$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.51 | 137 | 55.5%76 W · 61 L | -6.4wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf6aa…8484backed Yes | 35c | 63.61$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -2.5wins | -0.16per pick | 43cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…3af4backed Yes | 41c | 63.19$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.22 | 42 | 50%21 W · 21 L | +2.4wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb392…d481backed Yes | 43c | 58.34$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 36cpaid | -47.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x87ba…da46backed Yes | 40c | 56.8$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.91 | 146 | 35.6%52 W · 94 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x55d0…a380backed Yes | 32c | 54.48$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.2 | 42 | 38.1%16 W · 26 L | -4.5wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2869…527dbacked Yes | 30c | 52.11$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.89 | 937 | 34.9%327 W · 610 L | -203.5wins | -0.22per pick | 57cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xc77b…cc24backed Yes | 37c | 50.8$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdfd4…7a38backed Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9807…d228backed Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | -2.2wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed Yes | 69c | 48.33$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.14 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed Yes | 67c | 47.54$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.92 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb80d…4ba6backed No | 67c | 44.46$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.58 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +63.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd540…f3dbbacked Yes | 41c | 44.22$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 81 | 34.6%28 W · 53 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked Yes | 64c | 44$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.32 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f2c…8099backed Yes | 35c | 38.97$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.73 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -2.2wins | -0.25per pick | 58cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x13f4…03b0backed Yes | 34c | 36.2$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.41 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 61c | 31.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.48 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf10b…d88dbacked Yes | 38c | 31.63$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 84 | 46.4%39 W · 45 L | -4.0wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x27ca…b9bebacked No | 64c | 27.92$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.92 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -49.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5024…3007backed No | 71c | 27.43$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.05 | 269 | 48.3%130 W · 139 L | +7.5wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +68.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfe…aef2backed Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 102 | 28.4%29 W · 73 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c9e…8d54backed No | 80c | 24$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 276 | 69.2%191 W · 85 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 72cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5848…1e49backed No | 63c | 24$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.88 | 863 | 62.9%543 W · 320 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 69c | 23.22$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.17 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ed8…cad8backed No | 66c | 21.37$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.27 | 62 | 66.1%41 W · 21 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcaaa…da37backed Yes | 70c | 21$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 446 | 59%263 W · 183 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x81ab…5f31backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 289 | 46.4%134 W · 155 L | -14.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x11a9…4182backed No | 67c | 19.57$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.52 | 92 | 60.9%56 W · 36 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbbf…a7bebacked No | 61c | 19.5$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.55 | 8 | 100%8 W · 0 L | +2.5wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +45.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfa9e…2264backed No | 71c | 19.31$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.52 | 103 | 51.5%53 W · 50 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 63c | 16$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc12c…da6ebacked No | 67c | 14.97$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.94 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on May 16?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 19°C or below on May 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 20°C on May 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 21°C on May 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 22°C on May 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on May 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on May 16?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on May 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on May 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C or higher on May 16?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.