Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on May 16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0fe580ea9be6ceb435e15e1cbc657b04fd44b4c256d0e9a82d61c9590b7fe53a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $82,493
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $108,532
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $82,493 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 93 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8103…23a1backed No | 2c | 5,325$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.93 | 576 | 14.9%86 W · 490 L | +14.1wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1851…ae47backed No | 0c | 3,000$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 73 | 13.7%10 W · 63 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -68%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x762a…0322backed No | 51c | 1,250$638 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$638.37 | 58 | 24.1%14 W · 44 L | -4.4wins | -0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3b2c…ecdcbacked Yes | 32c | 1,089$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$739.9 | 154 | 33.8%52 W · 102 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01ce…27a2backed Yes | 33c | 1,050$348 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$701.73 | 553 | 36.7%203 W · 350 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked No | 1c | 1,040$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked No | 29c | 708.5$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.76 | 722 | 22.3%161 W · 561 L | -37.3wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 34c | 672.72$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226.27 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f05…9b05backed Yes | 11c | 657.15$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$588.14 | 37 | 27%10 W · 27 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4dd…cfc6backed Yes | 63c | 643$402 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240.81 | 72 | 40.3%29 W · 43 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6243…e014backed No | 7c | 627.87$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.24 | 232 | 43.5%101 W · 131 L | +24.3wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | +25%equal weight | 61+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8f42…cd3cbacked No | 3c | 548.22$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.95 | 128 | 51.6%66 W · 62 L | -13.1wins | -0.10per pick | 62cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8cc1…b9f8backed Yes | 7c | 489.09$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$456.44 | 349 | 22.9%80 W · 269 L | +9.3wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…deeabacked Yes | 31c | 437.84$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$303.98 | 1,072 | 36.6%392 W · 680 L | +25.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa1f5…78a8backed No | 70c | 399.77$282 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$281.56 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes | 28c | 387.97$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$278.18 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc0b…a782backed Yes | 17c | 359.21$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$297.21 | 515 | 37.5%193 W · 322 L | +9.2wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 4c | 334$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$319.8 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10d5…33fdbacked Yes | 71c | 315.15$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.32 | 308 | 32.5%100 W · 208 L | +14.7wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 44c | 306.36$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.25 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xd4d1…1733backed No | 28c | 303.04$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.21 | 213 | 38.5%82 W · 131 L | -9.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2851…6b8cbacked Yes | 50c | 263.3$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.4 | 683 | 38.8%265 W · 418 L | +36.1wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x24da…4c6dbacked No | 72c | 250.18$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.19 | 30 | 70%21 W · 9 L | +2.3wins | +0.08per pick | 62cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed No | 69c | 249.99$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.49 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 18c | 239.76$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.37 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a59…8e5cbacked Yes | 12c | 228.28$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.43 | 303 | 33%100 W · 203 L | +16.1wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 35c | 227$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.39 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0482…6b0abacked Yes | 14c | 215.37$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.63 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.86per pick | 14cpaid | +624.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad7…347abacked Yes | 13c | 209.05$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.22 | 729 | 52.4%382 W · 347 L | +34.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5be3…27a5backed Yes | 7c | 203.26$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.48 | 44 | 9.1%4 W · 40 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | +40%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4174…18fabacked No | 47c | 187.42$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.19 | 1,079 | 61.2%660 W · 419 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…3af4backed Yes | 36c | 184.56$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.67 | 42 | 50%21 W · 21 L | +2.4wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 66c | 176.6$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.8 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd3…ccacbacked No | 15c | 172.78$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.61 | 346 | 24.3%84 W · 262 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd30c…ada7backed Yes | 57c | 172.25$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.52 | 29 | 58.6%17 W · 12 L | +3.1wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x904c…4172backed No | 18c | 171.52$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.62 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | -3.4wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xddef…ea08backed Yes | 48c | 161.7$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.47 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x958a…9f65backed No | 38c | 156.31$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.91 | 558 | 55.2%308 W · 250 L | -10.0wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 46c | 151.09$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.33 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x662e…4b20backed Yes | 15c | 149.75$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.4 | 120 | 55%66 W · 54 L | +16.4wins | +0.14per pick | 41cpaid | +48.3%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xa1cb…af17backed Yes | 13c | 149.56$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.74 | 84 | 42.9%36 W · 48 L | +4.8wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 20c | 142.1$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.78 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 50c | 142$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.89 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f73…b6f9backed Yes | 7c | 139.77$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.77 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +2.6wins | +0.13per pick | 42cpaid | +68.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xea6b…5ac2backed Yes | 12c | 139.04$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.52 | 534 | 37.3%199 W · 335 L | -29.9wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8cc4…4ef0backed Yes | 34c | 131.29$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.45 | 49 | 46.9%23 W · 26 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdacf…3c74backed Yes | 22c | 121$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.71 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +161.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x39ca…ce0abacked Yes | 9c | 118.64$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.2 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +3.5wins | +0.35per pick | 15cpaid | +299.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xbc4e…7dbbbacked Yes | 54c | 116.3$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.99 | 386 | 55.7%215 W · 171 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5024…3007backed Yes | 53c | 111.34$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.47 | 269 | 48.3%130 W · 139 L | +7.5wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +68.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe256…0408backed Yes | 12c | 103.75$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.75 | 36 | 41.7%15 W · 21 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x865d…47aabacked No | 12c | 100.45$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.34 | 164 | 32.9%54 W · 110 L | +12.7wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0020…16b9backed No | 63c | 92.45$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.62 | 183 | 33.3%61 W · 122 L | -17.7wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0729…5f54backed No | 70c | 89.99$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.93 | 671 | 58.6%393 W · 278 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ef0…62e0backed No | 69c | 86$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.42 | 190 | 52.1%99 W · 91 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f39…3c00backed Yes | 20c | 85.08$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.43 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -48.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed No | 67c | 84.88$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.18 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed Yes | 70c | 82.04$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.81 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87ba…da46backed Yes | 22c | 80$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.4 | 146 | 35.6%52 W · 94 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 13c | 80$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.28 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 56c | 80$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.18 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x194b…e572backed No | 26c | 78.29$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.27 | 193 | 53.9%104 W · 89 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6409…9411backed No | 17c | 77.77$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 825 | 62.2%513 W · 312 L | -23.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4184…c863backed No | 36c | 76.96$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.35 | 899 | 51.6%464 W · 435 L | -40.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7c…b00dbacked No | 63c | 69.99$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.09 | 786 | 63.6%500 W · 286 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1867…a2e1backed Yes | 38c | 65.11$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.11 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 32c | 62.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.94 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 73c | 62.28$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.68 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 60$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64ca…67d7backed Yes | 21c | 58.32$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.32 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36e6…ad16backed Yes | 70c | 57.03$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.03 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed No | 23c | 56.36$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.94 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x658b…84bfbacked Yes | 28c | 50$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.95 | 204 | 45.1%92 W · 112 L | +14.8wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 32c | 48.59$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.1 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2845…b637backed No | 68c | 40.06$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.15 | 853 | 30.7%262 W · 591 L | +28.2wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 41c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.4 | 1,271 | 47.6%605 W · 666 L | -25.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3972…a677backed No | 65c | 38.6$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.96 | 817 | 56.4%461 W · 356 L | -23.0wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4077…01abbacked No | 68c | 35$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.96 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.38per pick | 63cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x228e…08efbacked No | 59c | 34.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4629…8541backed Yes | 45c | 33$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.15 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01f2…c3debacked Yes | 54c | 32.01$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.77 | 125 | 38.4%48 W · 77 L | -18.5wins | -0.15per pick | 53cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 61c | 32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.52 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0786…df1dbacked No | 60c | 30$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 230 | 60.9%140 W · 90 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1bd0…046fbacked No | 34c | 30$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 253 | 35.2%89 W · 164 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed Yes | 76c | 29.26$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.97 | 1,034 | 51.3%530 W · 504 L | +69.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xec54…3181backed No | 60c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.98 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x14fd…50afbacked Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.97 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5848…1e49backed No | 63c | 23.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.11 | 863 | 62.9%543 W · 320 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd48f…2327backed No | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 39 | 46.2%18 W · 21 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8cd…0d51backed No | 76c | 16.2$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 142 | 50.7%72 W · 70 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x13e0…82f9backed No | 70c | 15.01$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.51 | 305 | 65.9%201 W · 104 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe62e…917cbacked No | 72c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.77 | 155 | 58.7%91 W · 64 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on May 16?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 19°C or below on May 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 20°C on May 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 21°C on May 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 22°C on May 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on May 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on May 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on May 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on May 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C or higher on May 16?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.