Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Astini+5 vs Spirit Academy (BO3) - PREMIER SERIES Play-In Group B
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x65bd10522cb3a2a99a28a1feec46515b7a10f8c8a134961b1b1e13aeb814d979
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Spirit Academyof Astini+5, Spirit Academy
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,035
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,903
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,035 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa6d1…22d0backed Astini+5 | 1c | 5,624$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe4e6…7e67backed Astini+5 | 34c | 1,530$520 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$520.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5a…bf71backed Spirit Academy | 32c | 1,291$418 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$873.35 | 466 | 49.8%232 W · 234 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc0f5…3d04backed Astini+5 | 62c | 1,255$781 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$780.79 | 510 | 49%250 W · 260 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5641…116abacked Spirit Academy | 66c | 1,192$787 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$405.28 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +43.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed Spirit Academy | 34c | 942.1$318 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$624.16 | 2,828 | 43.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L | -39.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Spirit Academy | 52c | 784$406 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$377.51 | 2,012 | 44.2%889 W · 1,123 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x205a…0086backed Spirit Academy | 66c | 777$513 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$264.18 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +40.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x974f…cd80backed Spirit Academy | 29c | 699.99$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$495.59 | 551 | 47.5%262 W · 289 L | +22.3wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbe16…0621backed Astini+5 | 75c | 638$479 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$478.5 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.7wins | -0.42per pick | 67cpaid | -62.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe28e…bffbbacked Astini+5 | 34c | 624$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb346…37f6backed Spirit Academy | 25c | 491$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$368.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.75per pick | 25cpaid | +300%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x080b…d515backed Spirit Academy | 25c | 483$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$362.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.75per pick | 25cpaid | +300%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xecfa…3c6fbacked Spirit Academy | 11c | 346$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$307.48 | 38 | 28.9%11 W · 27 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc12…19a0backed Spirit Academy | 66c | 308$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.72 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d94…017dbacked Spirit Academy | 56c | 297.04$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.27 | 1,521 | 37.9%576 W · 945 L | -57.8wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ec3…47bcbacked Astini+5 | 34c | 285$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Spirit Academy | 31c | 271.24$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.49 | 1,272 | 45%572 W · 700 L | -40.5wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf64…7b37backed Astini+5 | 75c | 216$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82bf…de71backed Spirit Academy | 31c | 192.31$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.69 | 547 | 53.6%293 W · 254 L | +22.9wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb64…bfdcbacked Spirit Academy | 11c | 191.16$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.54 | 236 | 53%125 W · 111 L | +12.7wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe2de…30c5backed Spirit Academy | 66c | 161$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.74 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc332…59a9backed Astini+5 | 33c | 151.38$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf32d…bbbbbacked Astini+5 | 72c | 138.88$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.99 | 610 | 57.9%353 W · 257 L | +2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7627…4404backed Spirit Academy | 40c | 125$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 148 | 32.4%48 W · 100 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2d…fbf5backed Spirit Academy | 40c | 121.97$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.61 | 224 | 56.3%126 W · 98 L | +11.9wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked Spirit Academy | 23c | 118$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.86 | 35 | 28.6%10 W · 25 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa512…175cbacked Astini+5 | 15c | 110$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ee1…377abacked Spirit Academy | 68c | 96.54$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.89 | 82 | 61%50 W · 32 L | +3.8wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed Spirit Academy | 24c | 90$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.4 | 779 | 41.1%320 W · 459 L | -7.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05d3…c06abacked Astini+5 | 45c | 81.39$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 735 | 54.7%402 W · 333 L | -3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a06…31d8backed Astini+5 | 69c | 80.14$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 416 | 55.3%230 W · 186 L | -6.5wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Astini+5 | 28c | 73.72$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.52 | 616 | 9.7%60 W · 556 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5043…c922backed Astini+5 | 63c | 49.58$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.15 | 22 | 9.1%2 W · 20 L | -7.4wins | -0.34per pick | 43cpaid | -82.5%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x06d9…7cfbbacked Astini+5 | 61c | 49.18$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 201 | 51.2%103 W · 98 L | -4.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…8e7ebacked Spirit Academy | 59c | 42.01$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.22 | 338 | 54.1%183 W · 155 L | +11.7wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x92b5…2defbacked Astini+5 | 33c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 958 | 41.1%394 W · 564 L | +32.7wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc869…bc8dbacked Astini+5 | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 374 | 41.2%154 W · 220 L | -17.2wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xff95…3c1cbacked Astini+5 | 69c | 35$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.15 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.9wins | -0.27per pick | 42cpaid | -78%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xef0d…ef1cbacked Spirit Academy | 50c | 24.24$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.12 | 227 | 40.5%92 W · 135 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x81fe…4089backed Spirit Academy | 50c | 23.76$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.88 | 132 | 62.9%83 W · 49 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee59…e42abacked Spirit Academy | 54c | 22.01$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.12 | 288 | 46.9%135 W · 153 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9620…5052backed Astini+5 | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -2.7wins | -0.17per pick | 55cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1620…227bbacked Spirit Academy | 67c | 17.26$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.7 | 137 | 62.8%86 W · 51 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Astini+5 vs Spirit Academy (BO3) - PREMIER SERIES Play-In Group Bthis page
- Dota 2: Astini+5 vs Spirit Academy - Game 1 WinnerAstini+5 won
- Dota 2: Astini+5 vs Spirit Academy - Game 2 WinnerSpirit Academy won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.