Tennis · resolved market
Set 1 Winner: Cilic vs Shapovalov
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x65c795d9c20cdc68498c30d4754d23c8f0a94825a485ef7bebae040b24bdd0f3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Shapovalovof Cilic, Shapovalov
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,192
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,101
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,192 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Cilic | 38c | 1,030$389 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$388.89 | 4,921 | 38.7%1,905 W · 3,016 L | -20.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3db7…375cbacked Cilic | 2c | 948.16$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.93 | 159 | 31.4%50 W · 109 L | +15.3wins | +0.10per pick | 22cpaid | +35.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd2…f868backed Shapovalov | 61c | 821.94$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$321.94 | 61 | 65.6%40 W · 21 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Cilic | 57c | 708$404 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$403.56 | 1,227 | 53.2%653 W · 574 L | -5.2wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7547…d158backed Shapovalov | 43c | 600$258 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$342 | 7,049 | 39.7%2,795 W · 4,254 L | -20.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Cilic | 43c | 389.12$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.91 | 9,286 | 44.3%4,110 W · 5,176 L | -245.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ca6…6a20backed Cilic | 52c | 384.62$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 325 | 54.2%176 W · 149 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17e2…d472backed Shapovalov | 58c | 245.84$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.25 | 155 | 32.9%51 W · 104 L | -4.5wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x55ab…4f88backed Shapovalov | 47c | 209.53$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.38 | 637 | 46%293 W · 344 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29b1…ca10backed Shapovalov | 53c | 192.59$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.59 | 155 | 44.5%69 W · 86 L | -3.3wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8492…f17cbacked Shapovalov | 56c | 186.93$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.63 | 632 | 52.8%334 W · 298 L | -9.6wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d0…a1c5backed Shapovalov | 49c | 184.46$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.46 | 1,566 | 40%627 W · 939 L | -32.0wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Cilic | 43c | 128.45$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.8 | 5,416 | 48.6%2,633 W · 2,783 L | +14.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2374…a426backed Cilic | 47c | 111.43$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.37 | 873 | 37.1%324 W · 549 L | -3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2529…548abacked Cilic | 58c | 109.57$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.96 | 346 | 50.6%175 W · 171 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdaf9…fc07backed Shapovalov | 52c | 100$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 150 | 46%69 W · 81 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52be…801ebacked Shapovalov | 57c | 92.1$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.43 | 307 | 49.8%153 W · 154 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72aa…90e0backed Cilic | 53c | 91.26$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.76 | 432 | 50.5%218 W · 214 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Shapovalov | 44c | 91.25$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.22 | 6,449 | 46.3%2,987 W · 3,462 L | -42.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05d3…c06abacked Cilic | 58c | 88.84$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.51 | 1,639 | 55.1%903 W · 736 L | +10.8wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Cilic | 58c | 84.21$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.68 | 4,765 | 47%2,238 W · 2,527 L | -82.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Cilic | 33c | 53.84$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.83 | 1,008 | 43.8%442 W · 566 L | -2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x91ac…5ff3backed Shapovalov | 22c | 51.76$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.47 | 601 | 41.1%247 W · 354 L | -11.4wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d08…6e9bbacked Cilic | 53c | 49.06$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 282 | 49.3%139 W · 143 L | +12.0wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Shapovalov | 40c | 48.11$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.8 | 7,724 | 47.8%3,691 W · 4,033 L | +41.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e25…db26backed Cilic | 60c | 41.67$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 825 | 60.5%499 W · 326 L | -11.2wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Cilic | 44c | 39$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.16 | 1,870 | 16%299 W · 1,571 L | -314.3wins | -0.17per pick | 33cpaid | -65.6%equal weight | 32-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x0009…5497backed Cilic | 48c | 31.46$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.1 | 1,880 | 48.5%912 W · 968 L | +8.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Shapovalov | 41c | 26.47$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.62 | 1,510 | 37.7%569 W · 941 L | +24.5wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9991…36b8backed Cilic | 50c | 25.44$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.72 | 391 | 61.4%240 W · 151 L | -8.9wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Set 1 Winner: Cilic vs Shapovalovthis page
- Libema Open: Marin Cilic vs Denis ShapovalovMarin Cilic won
- Marin Cilic vs. Denis Shapovalov: Total Sets O/U 2.5Over 2.5 won
- Set Handicap: Cilic (-1.5) vs Shapovalov (+1.5)Shapovalov won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.