Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 2°C on March 3?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x65dcfa3f09a6e2f0ac83256dda3bc1b73c499c523ae3fc944d131971d12cce1f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $33,052
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $38,330
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $33,052 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9a31…b2c2backed Yes | 0c | 14,160$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.33 | 38 | 31.6%12 W · 26 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37ab…32e0backed Yes | 35c | 2,720$952 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$952 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdff6…36b1backed Yes | 35c | 2,684$939 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$939.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb5d6…cecabacked No | 65c | 1,372$892 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$480.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xceb0…57f3backed No | 65c | 1,362$885 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$476.7 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79f0…0d09backed No | 65c | 1,348$876 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$471.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xddbc…5f6fbacked No | 65c | 1,322$859 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$462.7 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa96a…1377backed No | 64c | 459.99$294 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.81 | 541 | 43.6%236 W · 305 L | -12.9wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2232…e889backed Yes | 32c | 318.5$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.94 | 165 | 29.1%48 W · 117 L | +12.9wins | +0.08per pick | 21cpaid | +62.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcd75…d07ebacked Yes | 49c | 311$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.25 | 154 | 33.8%52 W · 102 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 9c | 300$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed Yes | 30c | 261.62$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.16 | 769 | 24.3%187 W · 582 L | -16.3wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc676…f35cbacked No | 72c | 227$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.46 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 27c | 223.33$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.15 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x938d…8674backed Yes | 38c | 177.13$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.05 | 467 | 33.4%156 W · 311 L | +21.4wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa5a…8ab5backed Yes | 40c | 175.73$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5de8…f004backed No | 70c | 150$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.61 | 157 | 49.7%78 W · 79 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed Yes | 12c | 130$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 1,242 | 16.7%207 W · 1,035 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed Yes | 19c | 129.8$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf24e…9903backed Yes | 49c | 121.46$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66aa…5203backed Yes | 39c | 111.54$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.31 | 50 | 42%21 W · 29 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 29c | 103$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.17 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa67d…c6f9backed Yes | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 250 | 29.2%73 W · 177 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8110…c1babacked Yes | 51c | 84.27$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.06 | 82 | 50%41 W · 41 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed Yes | 27c | 83.61$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.16 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 68c | 83.05$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.2 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb347…0b22backed Yes | 50c | 80.74$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 46 | 41.3%19 W · 27 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b40…96e3backed No | 63c | 74.49$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.56 | 522 | 45%235 W · 287 L | -13.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf413…3f6cbacked Yes | 48c | 71.91$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.32 | 58 | 62.1%36 W · 22 L | +2.7wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 58c | 71.89$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.14 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb581…0308backed Yes | 31c | 66.39$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.53 | 358 | 43.9%157 W · 201 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 33c | 63.23$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.96 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0514…4fefbacked Yes | 34c | 61$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.54 | 195 | 31.3%61 W · 134 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes | 32c | 59.98$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.06 | 1,022 | 30.6%313 W · 709 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed No | 52c | 56$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.8 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x70c6…8c6dbacked No | 71c | 54.07$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.59 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e61…3f5ebacked Yes | 39c | 51.72$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 55 | 27.3%15 W · 40 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 29c | 50.76$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.66 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa680…459bbacked Yes | 36c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.08 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x536d…3152backed No | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 120 | 73.3%88 W · 32 L | +9.4wins | +0.08per pick | 65cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xeaaa…1d0ebacked Yes | 38c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -4.7wins | -0.22per pick | 46cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7d8d…a96cbacked Yes | 48c | 48.77$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.4 | 810 | 29.1%236 W · 574 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 23c | 46.92$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed5b…a76abacked No | 66c | 44.61$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.02 | 190 | 47.4%90 W · 100 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2205…8089backed No | 79c | 44.5$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.5 | 290 | 56.2%163 W · 127 L | -5.6wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe9cc…102abacked Yes | 34c | 40.86$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1c1…1bebbacked Yes | 36c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 276 | 48.6%134 W · 142 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c78…42e6backed No | 50c | 39.7$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.7 | 597 | 42%251 W · 346 L | +96.8wins | +0.16per pick | 26cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x2517…87d9backed Yes | 32c | 35.73$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.44 | 75 | 40%30 W · 45 L | +4.2wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked No | 70c | 35.71$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.71 | 1,002 | 60.9%610 W · 392 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x514f…2be0backed No | 58c | 33.9$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.17 | 51 | 51%26 W · 25 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed No | 72c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8a28…7f61backed Yes | 46c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.75 | 85 | 57.6%49 W · 36 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36c2…2b8cbacked No | 70c | 28.6$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.58 | 707 | 70.2%496 W · 211 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e2…a410backed No | 68c | 28$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.06 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 62cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbc13…5eb6backed No | 65c | 27.7$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.69 | 517 | 62.3%322 W · 195 L | -15.5wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0bd1…dff6backed No | 68c | 20.66$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.66 | 58 | 37.9%22 W · 36 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea65…d381backed No | 70c | 19.98$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.03 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf18…f5c3backed No | 73c | 19.62$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.3 | 110 | 44.5%49 W · 61 L | +6.3wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf03d…2bcfbacked No | 70c | 14.7$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.46 | 32 | 78.1%25 W · 7 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 72cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 2°C on March 3?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 0°C on March 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 1°C on March 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 3°C on March 3?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 4°C on March 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 5°C on March 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 6°C or higher on March 3?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.