TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 3°C on March 3?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$18,275
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$21,361

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,275 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 85 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes31c2,275$700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,575.194,49619.6%882 W · 3,614 L+49.5wins+0.01per pick19cpaid-1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc778…8d85backed No75c781.9$583 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58340%0 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes24c775.04$187 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$588.341,29833.1%430 W · 868 L+39.5wins+0.03per pick30cpaid+4.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1c78…42e6backed No16c544.14$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.9759742%251 W · 346 L+96.8wins+0.16per pick26cpaid+31.7%equal weight67+0.16 edge/pick
0xcd75…d07ebacked Yes53c484.66$256 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$229.0715433.8%52 W · 102 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-10.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x99cb…4bc2backed No75c368.11$276 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$275.815257.7%30 W · 22 L-5.6wins-0.11per pick68cpaid-20.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xecaa…34d2backed No73c327.28$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2406674.2%49 W · 17 L+3.0wins+0.04per pick70cpaid+4.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x906f…371abacked No74c325.31$242 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$242.242,49569.9%1,744 W · 751 L+80.3wins+0.03per pick67cpaid+5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9a31…b2c2backed Yes79c298.77$235 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.033831.6%12 W · 26 L-2.0wins-0.05per pick37cpaid-28.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes28c284.55$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$205.3717,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc6c8…d7c5backed No13c230.77$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.1924149.8%120 W · 121 L-10.5wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-10.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x47af…3999backed No23c200$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4632652.1%170 W · 156 L+7.6wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xad13…7ed6backed No66c158.01$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.191967%616 W · 303 L-10.6wins-0.01per pick68cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x66aa…5203backed Yes39c153.99$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93.965042%21 W · 29 L-2.4wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-26.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x938d…8674backed Yes49c151.28$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.0246733.4%156 W · 311 L+21.4wins+0.05per pick29cpaid+12%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x089b…c619backed No70c143.02$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1007576%57 W · 18 L+1.7wins+0.02per pick74cpaid+2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd7f6…628cbacked No76c129.12$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.496755.2%37 W · 30 L-5.3wins-0.08per pick63cpaid-8.2%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x2232…e889backed Yes33c121.92$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.9216529.1%48 W · 117 L+12.9wins+0.08per pick21cpaid+62.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x1408…b4f8backed No35c119.86$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.791,60542.9%689 W · 916 L-86.9wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-23.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf465…8a3bbacked No75c116.92$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.34080%32 W · 8 L+3.4wins+0.09per pick71cpaid+14.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf618…6a90backed No72c111.48$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$805858.6%34 W · 24 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick57cpaid-6.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes34c109.04$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.051,02230.6%313 W · 709 L+17.2wins+0.02per pick29cpaid+0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb347…0b22backed Yes53c107.1$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.424641.3%19 W · 27 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-8.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb581…0308backed Yes48c106.07$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.0535843.9%157 W · 201 L+8.2wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe5a1…3840backed Yes29c103$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.011,15327.1%312 W · 841 L+16.9wins+0.01per pick26cpaid-0.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1b22…8945backed No62c96.72$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.5425341.5%105 W · 148 L-13.3wins-0.05per pick47cpaid+27.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x8110…c1babacked Yes48c94.13$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.638250%41 W · 41 L-3.4wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-15.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9f0d…4ed5backed No76c90.09$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.452951.7%15 W · 14 L-6.0wins-0.21per pick72cpaid-31.1%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x8d88…1e28backed No37c85.89$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.8676924.3%187 W · 582 L-16.3wins-0.02per pick26cpaid-40.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x137f…1edebacked No72c79.75$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.361163.6%7 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.09per pick72cpaid-12.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5368…2d62backed Yes20c78.54$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.831,80427.4%494 W · 1,310 L+27.6wins+0.02per pick26cpaid+14.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4b40…96e3backed No53c74.49$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.4852245%235 W · 287 L-13.2wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-14.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No55c73.61$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.7512,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8454…3587backed No73c71.5$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.2627376.6%209 W · 64 L+0.5wins0.00per pick76cpaid+0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0a61…970ebacked Yes24c70.21$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.2425%1 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick29cpaid+3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes34c70$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.353,93935.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L+35.4wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc2e9…e288backed Yes66c69.99$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24837.5%3 W · 5 L-1.1wins-0.13per pick51cpaid-47.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0514…4fefbacked Yes25c66.8$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.2719531.3%61 W · 134 L-2.1wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaa28…090bbacked Yes23c61.9$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.382,23915%335 W · 1,904 L+54.6wins+0.02per pick13cpaid+24%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf413…3f6cbacked Yes79c56$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.55862.1%36 W · 22 L+2.7wins+0.05per pick57cpaid+3.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x809c…4861backed No74c55$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.923342.4%14 W · 19 L-4.8wins-0.15per pick57cpaid-37.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xe9cc…102abacked Yes27c54.42$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.962123.8%5 W · 16 L-0.9wins-0.04per pick28cpaid-7.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No49c53.81$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.5112,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x5504…665dbacked No74c50$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3710055%55 W · 45 L-4.3wins-0.04per pick59cpaid-4.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x306d…7a38backed Yes52c50$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.166735.4%236 W · 431 L+14.2wins+0.02per pick33cpaid+11.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa680…459bbacked Yes32c50$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.042642.3%11 W · 15 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-15.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2986…b3a9backed No30c50$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152,99531.4%940 W · 2,055 L+41.6wins+0.01per pick30cpaid+4.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x536d…3152backed No60c50$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3012073.3%88 W · 32 L+9.4wins+0.08per pick65cpaid+14.3%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x993f…35cbbacked No58c49.63$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.851,84263.5%1,170 W · 672 L-42.5wins-0.02per pick66cpaid-6.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5409…44d8backed No39c46.68$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-47.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbac8…0837backed No72c39.94$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.562975.9%22 W · 7 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick74cpaid+6.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8817…ba5cbacked No70c39.46$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.621172.7%8 W · 3 L+1.2wins+0.11per pick62cpaid+30%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x973e…15c2backed No78c38.46$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3017364.7%112 W · 61 L-10.3wins-0.06per pick71cpaid-10.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd725…0ba3backed No69c36.2$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.992272.7%16 W · 6 L-0.8wins-0.04per pick76cpaid-4.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2cc0…b5f2backed No65c35$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.613360.9%81 W · 52 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-6.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3865…fcbebacked No72c34.72$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$251,00260.9%610 W · 392 L-26.2wins-0.03per pick63cpaid-7.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdbb8…f7debacked Yes35c32.87$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.4318316.4%30 W · 153 L+6.6wins+0.04per pick13cpaid-14.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x59fe…14fdbacked No36c32$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.5257232.9%188 W · 384 L-104.6wins-0.18per pick51cpaid-45.9%equal weight31-0.18 edge/pick
0x98c4…5d90backed No67c31.57$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.154161%25 W · 16 L-4.1wins-0.10per pick71cpaid-18.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xa043…09d1backed Yes34c31.04$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.511118.2%2 W · 9 L-0.9wins-0.09per pick27cpaid-50.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x686c…b21dbacked No73c30.92$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.5720%0 W · 2 L-1.4wins-0.68per pick68cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x0130…fb49backed Yes48c30$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.666543.6%290 W · 375 L+25.2wins+0.04per pick40cpaid-10.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x35c4…d144backed No56c30$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.651,25562.5%785 W · 470 L+99.5wins+0.08per pick55cpaid+16.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x8a28…7f61backed No57c30$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.058557.6%49 W · 36 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2bbe…e620backed No70c28.59$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$205143.1%22 W · 29 L-5.5wins-0.11per pick54cpaid-30.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x1b6c…d8cdbacked No77c27.42$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.027375.3%55 W · 18 L+1.9wins+0.03per pick73cpaid+2.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7c14…35b8backed No72c27$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.564955.1%27 W · 22 L-3.1wins-0.06per pick62cpaid-19.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe5ee…269dbacked No76c26.66$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.2910%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.76per pick76cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x36c2…2b8cbacked No76c26.3$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.9970770.2%496 W · 211 L-4.2wins-0.01per pick71cpaid-2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc0b4…5d53backed No79c25.51$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.210%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.79per pick79cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5d11…71a2backed No43c24.29$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.551656.3%9 W · 7 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8b30…5fdabacked No72c24.24$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.4520%0 W · 2 L-1.3wins-0.66per pick66cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x67f9…eaf4backed No70c23.71$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.610%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.70per pick70cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9770…d57dbacked No67c22.86$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.2648672%350 W · 136 L+9.4wins+0.02per pick70cpaid+1.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3d2b…815abacked No72c22.64$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.2510264.7%66 W · 36 L+0.2wins0.00per pick65cpaid-3.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd41f…bb32backed No70c21.43$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$153275%24 W · 8 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick74cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x407f…d62abacked Yes73c19.26$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.251100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+37.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9b43…33cebacked No62c18.42$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.4234369.4%238 W · 105 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick68cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8971…809dbacked No57c18.04$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.341,95946%901 W · 1,058 L-51.3wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-9.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9bb8…c6f5backed No70c17.91$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.51154.5%6 W · 5 L-1.5wins-0.14per pick68cpaid-23.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x81a2…5cdabacked No70c17.86$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.55872.4%42 W · 16 L-0.2wins0.00per pick73cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf51b…ca1bbacked No79c15.69$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.461,27434%433 W · 841 L+46.9wins+0.04per pick30cpaid+4.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2f98…e397backed No78c15$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.733154.4%180 W · 151 L+7.9wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+1.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9be2…cba5backed No78c14.57$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.32759.3%16 W · 11 L-4.1wins-0.15per pick74cpaid-22.4%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xfa3a…f171backed No78c14.19$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.111968.4%13 W · 6 L-1.2wins-0.06per pick75cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.