Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 3°C on March 3?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xddaeb5a2e7f153ac4539bd170ecbafb9941bb5547318ab5ac51bfdf2735b2a24
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,275
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,361
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,275 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 85 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 31c | 2,275$700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,575.19 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc778…8d85backed No | 75c | 781.9$583 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$583 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 24c | 775.04$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$588.34 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c78…42e6backed No | 16c | 544.14$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.97 | 597 | 42%251 W · 346 L | +96.8wins | +0.16per pick | 26cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xcd75…d07ebacked Yes | 53c | 484.66$256 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$229.07 | 154 | 33.8%52 W · 102 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99cb…4bc2backed No | 75c | 368.11$276 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$275.81 | 52 | 57.7%30 W · 22 L | -5.6wins | -0.11per pick | 68cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xecaa…34d2backed No | 73c | 327.28$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 66 | 74.2%49 W · 17 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 70cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 74c | 325.31$242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$242.24 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9a31…b2c2backed Yes | 79c | 298.77$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.03 | 38 | 31.6%12 W · 26 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 28c | 284.55$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.37 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6c8…d7c5backed No | 13c | 230.77$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.19 | 241 | 49.8%120 W · 121 L | -10.5wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x47af…3999backed No | 23c | 200$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 326 | 52.1%170 W · 156 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 66c | 158.01$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.1 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66aa…5203backed Yes | 39c | 153.99$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.96 | 50 | 42%21 W · 29 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x938d…8674backed Yes | 49c | 151.28$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.02 | 467 | 33.4%156 W · 311 L | +21.4wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x089b…c619backed No | 70c | 143.02$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 75 | 76%57 W · 18 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f6…628cbacked No | 76c | 129.12$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.49 | 67 | 55.2%37 W · 30 L | -5.3wins | -0.08per pick | 63cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2232…e889backed Yes | 33c | 121.92$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.92 | 165 | 29.1%48 W · 117 L | +12.9wins | +0.08per pick | 21cpaid | +62.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 35c | 119.86$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.79 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf465…8a3bbacked No | 75c | 116.92$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.3 | 40 | 80%32 W · 8 L | +3.4wins | +0.09per pick | 71cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf618…6a90backed No | 72c | 111.48$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 58 | 58.6%34 W · 24 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes | 34c | 109.04$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.05 | 1,022 | 30.6%313 W · 709 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb347…0b22backed Yes | 53c | 107.1$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.42 | 46 | 41.3%19 W · 27 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb581…0308backed Yes | 48c | 106.07$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.05 | 358 | 43.9%157 W · 201 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 29c | 103$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.01 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b22…8945backed No | 62c | 96.72$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.54 | 253 | 41.5%105 W · 148 L | -13.3wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8110…c1babacked Yes | 48c | 94.13$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.63 | 82 | 50%41 W · 41 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f0d…4ed5backed No | 76c | 90.09$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.45 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | -6.0wins | -0.21per pick | 72cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed No | 37c | 85.89$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.86 | 769 | 24.3%187 W · 582 L | -16.3wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x137f…1edebacked No | 72c | 79.75$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.36 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 72cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed Yes | 20c | 78.54$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.83 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b40…96e3backed No | 53c | 74.49$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.48 | 522 | 45%235 W · 287 L | -13.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 55c | 73.61$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.75 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8454…3587backed No | 73c | 71.5$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.26 | 273 | 76.6%209 W · 64 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 76cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a61…970ebacked Yes | 24c | 70.21$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.2 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 34c | 70$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.35 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc2e9…e288backed Yes | 66c | 69.99$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.13per pick | 51cpaid | -47.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0514…4fefbacked Yes | 25c | 66.8$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.27 | 195 | 31.3%61 W · 134 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 23c | 61.9$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.38 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf413…3f6cbacked Yes | 79c | 56$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 58 | 62.1%36 W · 22 L | +2.7wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x809c…4861backed No | 74c | 55$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.92 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | -4.8wins | -0.15per pick | 57cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe9cc…102abacked Yes | 27c | 54.42$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.96 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 49c | 53.81$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.51 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x5504…665dbacked No | 74c | 50$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 100 | 55%55 W · 45 L | -4.3wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x306d…7a38backed Yes | 52c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.1 | 667 | 35.4%236 W · 431 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa680…459bbacked Yes | 32c | 50$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.04 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x536d…3152backed No | 60c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 120 | 73.3%88 W · 32 L | +9.4wins | +0.08per pick | 65cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 58c | 49.63$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.85 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5409…44d8backed No | 39c | 46.68$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbac8…0837backed No | 72c | 39.94$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.56 | 29 | 75.9%22 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8817…ba5cbacked No | 70c | 39.46$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.62 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.11per pick | 62cpaid | +30%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x973e…15c2backed No | 78c | 38.46$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 173 | 64.7%112 W · 61 L | -10.3wins | -0.06per pick | 71cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd725…0ba3backed No | 69c | 36.2$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.99 | 22 | 72.7%16 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 76cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2cc0…b5f2backed No | 65c | 35$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.6 | 133 | 60.9%81 W · 52 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked No | 72c | 34.72$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1,002 | 60.9%610 W · 392 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb8…f7debacked Yes | 35c | 32.87$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.43 | 183 | 16.4%30 W · 153 L | +6.6wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x59fe…14fdbacked No | 36c | 32$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.52 | 572 | 32.9%188 W · 384 L | -104.6wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 31-0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x98c4…5d90backed No | 67c | 31.57$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.15 | 41 | 61%25 W · 16 L | -4.1wins | -0.10per pick | 71cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa043…09d1backed Yes | 34c | 31.04$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.51 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 27cpaid | -50.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x686c…b21dbacked No | 73c | 30.92$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.57 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.4wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0130…fb49backed Yes | 48c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 665 | 43.6%290 W · 375 L | +25.2wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed No | 56c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.65 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8a28…7f61backed No | 57c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.05 | 85 | 57.6%49 W · 36 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2bbe…e620backed No | 70c | 28.59$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 51 | 43.1%22 W · 29 L | -5.5wins | -0.11per pick | 54cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1b6c…d8cdbacked No | 77c | 27.42$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.02 | 73 | 75.3%55 W · 18 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 73cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c14…35b8backed No | 72c | 27$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.56 | 49 | 55.1%27 W · 22 L | -3.1wins | -0.06per pick | 62cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe5ee…269dbacked No | 76c | 26.66$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.29 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.76per pick | 76cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36c2…2b8cbacked No | 76c | 26.3$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 707 | 70.2%496 W · 211 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0b4…5d53backed No | 79c | 25.51$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.79per pick | 79cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d11…71a2backed No | 43c | 24.29$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.55 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b30…5fdabacked No | 72c | 24.24$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.45 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x67f9…eaf4backed No | 70c | 23.71$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9770…d57dbacked No | 67c | 22.86$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.26 | 486 | 72%350 W · 136 L | +9.4wins | +0.02per pick | 70cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d2b…815abacked No | 72c | 22.64$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.25 | 102 | 64.7%66 W · 36 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd41f…bb32backed No | 70c | 21.43$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 32 | 75%24 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 74cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x407f…d62abacked Yes | 73c | 19.26$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b43…33cebacked No | 62c | 18.42$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.42 | 343 | 69.4%238 W · 105 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 57c | 18.04$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.34 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9bb8…c6f5backed No | 70c | 17.91$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.14per pick | 68cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x81a2…5cdabacked No | 70c | 17.86$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 58 | 72.4%42 W · 16 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 73cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked No | 79c | 15.69$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.46 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2f98…e397backed No | 78c | 15$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 331 | 54.4%180 W · 151 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9be2…cba5backed No | 78c | 14.57$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.3 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | -4.1wins | -0.15per pick | 74cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfa3a…f171backed No | 78c | 14.19$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.11 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 75cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 3°C on March 3?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 0°C on March 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 1°C on March 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 2°C on March 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 4°C on March 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 5°C on March 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 6°C or higher on March 3?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.