TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Dota2 · resolved market

Game Handicap: Na`Vi (-1.5) vs Vici Gaming (+1.5)

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Vici Gamingof Natus Vincere, Vici Gaming
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$3,028

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,028 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Dota2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x5804…eba4backed Natus Vincere24c342$82 inLost-$82.0810%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc7ae…d849backed Natus Vincere25c335$84 inLost-$83.7510%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x30b4…2fbbbacked Natus Vincere25c333$83 inLost-$83.2510%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8b94…6379backed Vici Gaming75c265$199 inWon+$66.251100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x796f…44d1backed Vici Gaming76c260$198 inWon+$62.41100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+31.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x085f…4f48backed Vici Gaming75c259$194 inWon+$64.752100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.25per pick76cpaid+32.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5927…6a18backed Vici Gaming76c255$194 inWon+$61.21100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+31.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc1a1…131abacked Vici Gaming73c254$185 inWon+$68.581100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+37%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8e6c…a873backed Vici Gaming73c227$166 inWon+$61.291100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+37%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x29cb…73adbacked Vici Gaming75c214$161 inWon+$53.51100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x29b3…bd1ebacked Natus Vincere24c213$51 inLost-$51.12250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-35.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x32c8…772cbacked Natus Vincere27c209$56 inLost-$56.4310%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfe56…d412backed Vici Gaming76c203$154 inWon+$48.721100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+31.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe371…ec9abacked Natus Vincere27c200$54 inLost-$5420%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd41c…2402backed Natus Vincere25c197$49 inLost-$49.2520%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc697…dd32backed Vici Gaming76c181$138 inWon+$43.441100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+31.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xac80…f3d3backed Natus Vincere25c178$45 inLost-$44.510%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7a16…ddddbacked Natus Vincere27c171$46 inLost-$46.1710%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6d8d…0667backed Vici Gaming75c161$121 inWon+$40.252100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+34.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3320…17acbacked Natus Vincere27c158$43 inLost-$42.6610%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x708f…dd7dbacked Natus Vincere27c151$41 inLost-$40.7710%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcdc6…437cbacked Vici Gaming75c144$108 inWon+$362100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.25per pick76cpaid+32.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe50f…d7e9backed Vici Gaming73c143$104 inWon+$38.612100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.52per pick49cpaid+176.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x71dd…f838backed Natus Vincere24c79$19 inLost-$18.9610%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8232…d12fbacked Vici Gaming79c63.29$50 inWon+$13.2928062.9%176 W · 104 L+6.8wins+0.02per pick60cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5de7…5417backed Natus Vincere35c63.29$22 inLost-$22.1547951.8%248 W · 231 L+17.7wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+6.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa02b…70d6backed Natus Vincere21c60.76$13 inLost-$12.762147.6%10 W · 11 L+2.1wins+0.10per pick37cpaid+62.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.