TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Dota2 · resolved market

Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs Vici Gaming - Game 2 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Vici Gamingof Natus Vincere, Vici Gaming
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$201,520

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $201,520 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 202 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Dota2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xf9b5…09eebacked Vici Gaming50c27,781$13,927 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,853.755157%314 W · 237 L+17.4wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x533e…47f4backed Natus Vincere16c26,840$4,182 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,181.6811359.3%67 W · 46 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick58cpaid-2.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6ab4…96a5backed Natus Vincere56c6,401$3,595 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,594.7311854.2%64 W · 54 L+2.2wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x87da…53d1backed Natus Vincere45c6,231$2,820 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,820.4396557.4%554 W · 411 L+49.5wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+7.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd06c…cdafbacked Vici Gaming62c5,233$3,250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,983.211,18643.2%512 W · 674 L+42.2wins+0.04per pick40cpaid+1.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x66fb…9f72backed Natus Vincere62c4,844$3,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,00054556.5%308 W · 237 L+10.4wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+1.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd055…28d0backed Natus Vincere60c4,359$2,637 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,636.7426550.6%134 W · 131 L+12.0wins+0.05per pick46cpaid+6.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2775…3652backed Natus Vincere54c4,321$2,329 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,328.8633041.8%138 W · 192 L-9.4wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-16%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x60d0…e05fbacked Vici Gaming41c4,179$1,713 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,466.5141242.2%174 W · 238 L-0.4wins0.00per pick42cpaid-2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5e38…de0fbacked Vici Gaming43c3,604$1,563 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,041.076043.3%26 W · 34 L-2.5wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-14.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8310…8967backed Vici Gaming41c3,300$1,347 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,953.169657.3%55 W · 41 L+8.5wins+0.09per pick48cpaid+13.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xbc67…5286backed Vici Gaming52c2,810$1,451 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,359.266662.2%414 W · 252 L+60.2wins+0.09per pick53cpaid+10.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed Natus Vincere45c2,785$1,257 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,256.582,82843.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L-39.5wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-20.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb04b…e2d4backed Natus Vincere29c2,500$725 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$724.9916142.9%69 W · 92 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick42cpaid+0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb74c…b149backed Natus Vincere2c2,247$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.5450%0 W · 45 L-7.8wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x93bc…8ca3backed Vici Gaming39c2,000$780 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,219.9989440.3%360 W · 534 L+1.3wins0.00per pick40cpaid-2.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Natus Vincere52c1,790$932 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$932.482,01244.2%889 W · 1,123 L+36.6wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0438…9d98backed Natus Vincere66c1,592$1,043 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,042.820156.7%114 W · 87 L+0.9wins0.00per pick56cpaid-3.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x506b…3f70backed Natus Vincere51c1,536$786 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$786.126145.9%28 W · 33 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xefee…d2b3backed Natus Vincere59c1,519$896 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$896.0312256.6%69 W · 53 L-7.5wins-0.06per pick63cpaid-13.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xca1f…ed28backed Vici Gaming53c1,518$797 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$720.8260552.6%318 W · 287 L+15.0wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-0.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe6a4…4249backed Vici Gaming78c1,500$1,177 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$322.919664.8%127 W · 69 L+0.3wins0.00per pick65cpaid-4.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x786a…9cd5backed Natus Vincere10c1,438$147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$147.212142.9%9 W · 12 L+1.9wins+0.09per pick34cpaid-15.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x00ce…3f01backed Natus Vincere55c1,320$726 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72615345.8%70 W · 83 L-7.2wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-13.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2aad…88d4backed Natus Vincere32c1,286$414 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$414.414443.8%63 W · 81 L-6.5wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-25.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3c67…e40ebacked Natus Vincere24c1,283$302 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301.96434.4%22 W · 42 L-3.1wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-25.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe1f1…3a05backed Natus Vincere51c1,279$653 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$652.76346%29 W · 34 L+4.5wins+0.07per pick39cpaid+12.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Natus Vincere37c1,243$457 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$457.121,52137.9%576 W · 945 L-57.8wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-26.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9bcc…84c1backed Natus Vincere62c1,106$685 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$685.334440.9%18 W · 26 L-2.4wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-15.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb4f9…32b1backed Natus Vincere26c1,100$282 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$281.9131245.8%143 W · 169 L+10.2wins+0.03per pick43cpaid-5.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x168b…0acfbacked Vici Gaming68c1,048$709 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$339.3318362.8%115 W · 68 L+5.4wins+0.03per pick60cpaid-2.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x59c8…de83backed Natus Vincere11c1,015$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1119447.9%45 W · 49 L+4.2wins+0.04per pick43cpaid+9.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9e64…89c3backed Natus Vincere33c899.49$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3007342.5%31 W · 42 L-4.0wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-17.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x63ad…790cbacked Natus Vincere26c823.99$214 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$214.242450%12 W · 12 L+2.0wins+0.09per pick41cpaid+28.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6a06…31d8backed Vici Gaming44c817.94$358 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$460.0241655.3%230 W · 186 L-6.5wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-6.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xacf6…41fcbacked Vici Gaming49c815.88$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$415.8860646.9%284 W · 322 L+10.5wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+4.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcf0a…320abacked Vici Gaming65c800$520 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$280.1792056.4%519 W · 401 L+78.3wins+0.09per pick48cpaid+3.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xb5b7…7ffabacked Vici Gaming40c727.5$291 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$436.55642.9%24 W · 32 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-3.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2765…7ee4backed Vici Gaming37c700$259 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44155751.7%288 W · 269 L+16.7wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x256b…cd5dbacked Vici Gaming54c670.02$362 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$308.43154.8%17 W · 14 L+3.2wins+0.10per pick45cpaid+22.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xdc5a…bf71backed Natus Vincere51c652.74$335 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$334.7546649.8%232 W · 234 L+8.3wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-12.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0828…5cfebacked Vici Gaming46c638.86$291 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$347.916550.9%84 W · 81 L-6.1wins-0.04per pick55cpaid-9.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7576…3ff4backed Natus Vincere54c601.17$324 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$323.53158.1%18 W · 13 L-1.3wins-0.04per pick62cpaid-11.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1f2d…2b35backed Vici Gaming50c600$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30053652.6%282 W · 254 L-3.9wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-1.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2a8c…fd3dbacked Vici Gaming74c567.57$420 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$147.5748539.2%190 W · 295 L-8.4wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-10.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3741…517ebacked Natus Vincere54c550$295 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$295.2937047%174 W · 196 L-2.6wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-4.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x538e…c195backed Natus Vincere59c535.66$316 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$316.0412966.7%86 W · 43 L+2.5wins+0.02per pick65cpaid+4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7dde…9d98backed Natus Vincere57c526.32$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3003438.2%13 W · 21 L-1.1wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-20.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x363a…4a8dbacked Vici Gaming80c515.41$412 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$103.818258.5%48 W · 34 L-3.8wins-0.05per pick63cpaid-11%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1b12…5f8fbacked Vici Gaming37c504.08$187 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$317.5729548.5%143 W · 152 L+0.5wins0.00per pick48cpaid+1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x26d6…56efbacked Vici Gaming38c500$190 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31056542.8%242 W · 323 L+5.1wins+0.01per pick42cpaid+2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe76d…5a75backed Vici Gaming39c500$195 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3051,24844.4%554 W · 694 L+17.0wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7dfd…8d75backed Natus Vincere3c500$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1524251.7%125 W · 117 L+21.0wins+0.09per pick43cpaid+15.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x0d03…9a41backed Natus Vincere29c500$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14523050.9%117 W · 113 L-0.3wins0.00per pick51cpaid-10.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa97f…a818backed Vici Gaming38c499.99$190 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$309.9958744%258 W · 329 L+13.3wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdb2c…e9a0backed Natus Vincere60c499.97$302 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301.98875%6 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.11per pick64cpaid+14.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x01d4…33d8backed Natus Vincere55c495.15$271 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27111757.3%67 W · 50 L+4.0wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6cc8…67f7backed Natus Vincere63c479.11$302 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301.8419162.8%120 W · 71 L+3.1wins+0.02per pick61cpaid+1.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x3abf…b143backed Vici Gaming75c475.8$359 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$117.0833645.5%153 W · 183 L+4.2wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x736d…c635backed Natus Vincere52c470$247 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$246.597142.7%415 W · 556 L-20.4wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-9.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x79ac…9c87backed Natus Vincere27c439.47$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118.668040%32 W · 48 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2416…6e91backed Vici Gaming74c436.25$322 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$114.1638653.9%208 W · 178 L+10.1wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+1.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xcb5b…f243backed Natus Vincere42c434.65$182 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$182.321,27245%572 W · 700 L-40.5wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-17.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb97e…262bbacked Natus Vincere52c432.53$224 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$224.4952649.2%259 W · 267 L+21.1wins+0.04per pick45cpaid+1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xdcfe…44b5backed Vici Gaming41c426.95$175 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$251.932854.9%180 W · 148 L+11.8wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+2.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf457…d1a6backed Natus Vincere59c422.92$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25012459.7%74 W · 50 L+4.6wins+0.04per pick56cpaid+8.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6503…0c3dbacked Natus Vincere55c400$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2208461.9%52 W · 32 L+5.3wins+0.06per pick56cpaid+7.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5502…d440backed Vici Gaming48c400$192 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20845457.5%261 W · 193 L+39.5wins+0.09per pick49cpaid+14%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xae10…d0d9backed Natus Vincere31c400$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12417353.2%92 W · 81 L+8.6wins+0.05per pick48cpaid-4.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x953f…15e6backed Vici Gaming52c387.4$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$187.415064.7%97 W · 53 L+4.5wins+0.03per pick62cpaid+3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0c67…d062backed Vici Gaming41c365.85$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$215.851,13742.3%481 W · 656 L-27.5wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-9.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7b4c…e430backed Natus Vincere62c349.62$216 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$216.454949%24 W · 25 L-2.6wins-0.05per pick54cpaid-15.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc03e…da65backed Natus Vincere65c315.43$204 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203.846650%33 W · 33 L-5.3wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-15.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x860e…a06dbacked Natus Vincere6c315.01$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1916440.2%66 W · 98 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7f52…c525backed Natus Vincere26c300$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$789053.3%48 W · 42 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8725…eb10backed Vici Gaming39c300$116 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$183.977941.1%320 W · 459 L-7.9wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-4.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3fc7…62b9backed Vici Gaming37c299.99$111 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18965441.9%274 W · 380 L-1.3wins0.00per pick42cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe375…dadfbacked Vici Gaming39c298.92$117 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$182.3412948.1%62 W · 67 L-9.3wins-0.07per pick55cpaid-13.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x9317…6e69backed Vici Gaming41c297.56$122 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$175.56475%3 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.22per pick53cpaid+45.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf679…16acbacked Vici Gaming34c293.05$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$193.4122954.1%124 W · 105 L+8.2wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+7.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x368d…d853backed Natus Vincere63c290$183 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$182.761548.8%300 W · 315 L+8.2wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9c4a…4896backed Natus Vincere37c276.49$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.31233.3%4 W · 8 L-3.1wins-0.26per pick59cpaid-40.8%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xdca4…1c68backed Vici Gaming37c268.16$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$168.1664149.9%320 W · 321 L+1.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid-1.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5cab…a8cfbacked Vici Gaming57c266.89$152 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$114.7635370%247 W · 106 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick69cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd15e…db59backed Natus Vincere56c266.01$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15011845.8%54 W · 64 L-4.2wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-6.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x42b7…77dcbacked Natus Vincere5c260$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.7599844.4%443 W · 555 L+21.0wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-0.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0c57…bf46backed Vici Gaming39c256.41$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$156.414250%21 W · 21 L+2.2wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+16.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf3ce…a57abacked Vici Gaming40c250.79$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$150.791,20259.3%713 W · 489 L+64.6wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+10.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc6fa…6f25backed Natus Vincere20c250$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$502433.3%8 W · 16 L-3.4wins-0.14per pick48cpaid-36.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x00cb…3992backed Natus Vincere32c240.63$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$775139.2%20 W · 31 L-5.4wins-0.10per pick50cpaid-31.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xc327…c72abacked Natus Vincere58c240.01$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$140.2211753%62 W · 55 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2639…a9b6backed Vici Gaming45c225.17$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$123.8615549%76 W · 79 L-3.9wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-8.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x27db…2859backed Natus Vincere8c208.03$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.492147.6%10 W · 11 L+0.1wins0.00per pick47cpaid-3.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa3fb…19c0backed Vici Gaming45c200$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1106735.8%24 W · 43 L-0.2wins0.00per pick36cpaid-8.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xed10…15edbacked Natus Vincere56c200$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11288166.7%588 W · 293 L+76.3wins+0.09per pick58cpaid+12.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xfbc2…514cbacked Vici Gaming80c198.9$159 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.8433845.6%154 W · 184 L+6.4wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-5.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfdc0…4b85backed Vici Gaming42c194.83$82 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$112.481,57743.9%692 W · 885 L-10.4wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-8.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x79df…31d6backed Natus Vincere26c192.31$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5011239.3%44 W · 68 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x76fc…48fabacked Vici Gaming45c186.66$85 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102.0413247.7%63 W · 69 L-7.8wins-0.06per pick54cpaid-15%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5264…54cebacked Vici Gaming45c184.24$82 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101.7412348%59 W · 64 L-6.0wins-0.05per pick53cpaid-10.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.