Bundesliga · resolved market
SG Dynamo Dresden vs. SC Preußen Münster: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x65f9e03578cb6197915fd3fa09ae61809f3d81a0dfdc0a96fef725d932279c50
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,265
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,265 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 16c | 2,541$414 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$413.57 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed Over | 24c | 1,249$296 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$953.03 | 57 | 29.8%17 W · 40 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Under | 15c | 978.74$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.99 | 1,013 | 44.5%451 W · 562 L | -8.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5a7…63e7backed Over | 27c | 400$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$292 | 227 | 47.1%107 W · 120 L | +11.6wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Over | 31c | 381.46$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$263.61 | 481 | 46.4%223 W · 258 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c86…15c0backed Over | 66c | 303.03$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.03 | 176 | 52.3%92 W · 84 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6619…703ebacked Under | 75c | 293.33$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 189 | 58.2%110 W · 79 L | -6.5wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 35c | 120.44$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.15 | 1,305 | 40.8%532 W · 773 L | -42.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Over | 26c | 116.35$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.74 | 1,083 | 50.8%550 W · 533 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6af…b5efbacked Under | 74c | 81.08$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 61 | 47.5%29 W · 32 L | -8.5wins | -0.14per pick | 62cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb01d…46f0backed Over | 26c | 76.92$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.92 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +5.5wins | +0.29per pick | 34cpaid | +101.4%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x7c56…0615backed Under | 35c | 64$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.4 | 62 | 45.2%28 W · 34 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Over | 26c | 53.39$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.45 | 496 | 47.4%235 W · 261 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x726b…c72bbacked Over | 28c | 52.53$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.99 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.64per pick | 36cpaid | +194.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe824…65b4backed Over | 27c | 51.8$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.81 | 77 | 66.2%51 W · 26 L | +8.2wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +36.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xeb76…7ffebacked Over | 27c | 41$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.93 | 73 | 32.9%24 W · 49 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Over | 31c | 40.79$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 636 | 45.1%287 W · 349 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed Over | 27c | 38.86$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.45 | 82 | 50%41 W · 41 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef2e…10c3backed Over | 80c | 26.54$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.31 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +1.8wins | +0.14per pick | 63cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 61c | 24.84$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.16 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b89…99e2backed Under | 75c | 21.84$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.42 | 258 | 50.4%130 W · 128 L | +6.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb17…32b2backed Under | 75c | 15.96$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.89 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | +3.8wins | +0.12per pick | 46cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- SG Dynamo Dresden vs. SC Preußen Münster: O/U 3.5this page
- SG Dynamo Dresden vs. SC Preußen Münster: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- SG Dynamo Dresden vs. SC Preußen Münster: O/U 1.5Over won
- SG Dynamo Dresden vs. SC Preußen Münster: O/U 2.5Over won
- SG Dynamo Dresden vs. SC Preußen Münster: O/U 4.5Over won
- Spread: SC Preußen Münster (-1.5)SG Dynamo Dresden won
- Spread: SG Dynamo Dresden (-1.5)SG Dynamo Dresden won
- Spread: SG Dynamo Dresden (-2.5)SG Dynamo Dresden won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.