Bundesliga · resolved market
SG Dynamo Dresden vs. SC Preußen Münster: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x057c80fe1ae8c9c5d799ed019f8efd31feef83868cf29281416d2c65ff4715ac
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $34,285
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $34,285 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Under | 52c | 3,407$1,771 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,771.46 | 332 | 44.6%148 W · 184 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 11c | 2,807$296 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$295.97 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a12…d3febacked Under | 48c | 2,584$1,240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,240.42 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 54c | 1,747$940 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$807.47 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x351e…de8abacked Over | 52c | 979.66$509 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$470.24 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Over | 48c | 900$432 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$468 | 565 | 47.8%270 W · 295 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Over | 48c | 658.34$316 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$342.39 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf5a7…63e7backed Over | 51c | 593.55$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$293.55 | 227 | 47.1%107 W · 120 L | +11.6wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1c86…15c0backed Over | 49c | 510.2$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260.2 | 176 | 52.3%92 W · 84 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…8525backed Under | 53c | 328.11$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.9 | 168 | 50%84 W · 84 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 49c | 322.55$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.05 | 1,355 | 50.9%690 W · 665 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6619…703ebacked Over | 47c | 223.4$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.4 | 189 | 58.2%110 W · 79 L | -6.5wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Under | 10c | 176.22$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.62 | 1,013 | 44.5%451 W · 562 L | -8.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 32c | 175.84$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.51 | 1,305 | 40.8%532 W · 773 L | -42.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x50e9…5efebacked Under | 54c | 100$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 128 | 43%55 W · 73 L | -9.9wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe704…7558backed Over | 48c | 97.71$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.78 | 178 | 55.6%99 W · 79 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0056…a7f7backed Over | 52c | 76.76$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.84 | 71 | 45.1%32 W · 39 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x849f…0665backed Over | 48c | 73.32$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.13 | 57 | 52.6%30 W · 27 L | +3.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b89…99e2backed Over | 48c | 63.62$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.08 | 258 | 50.4%130 W · 128 L | +6.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8632…4696backed Over | 52c | 59.04$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.34 | 82 | 52.4%43 W · 39 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f31…e2b6backed Over | 51c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.5 | 80 | 67.5%54 W · 26 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 64cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe293…d3edbacked Under | 53c | 42.78$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.67 | 26 | 65.4%17 W · 9 L | +3.3wins | +0.13per pick | 53cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa6af…b5efbacked Over | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.82 | 61 | 47.5%29 W · 32 L | -8.5wins | -0.14per pick | 62cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3a80…49bfbacked Over | 48c | 40$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.8 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1121…6604backed Over | 52c | 38$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.24 | 46 | 43.5%20 W · 26 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x15ee…512dbacked Over | 52c | 38$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.24 | 86 | 47.7%41 W · 45 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e0a…745dbacked Over | 52c | 38$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.24 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +1.8wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcf02…3a63backed Over | 52c | 38$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.24 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed Over | 49c | 35$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.85 | 82 | 50%41 W · 41 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd60c…2b06backed Over | 42c | 33$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.22 | 160 | 56.9%91 W · 69 L | +13.3wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 50c | 31.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.14 | 1,083 | 50.8%550 W · 533 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0466…b3a5backed Over | 47c | 27.53$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.53 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +99%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed Over | 43c | 26.28$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.98 | 57 | 29.8%17 W · 40 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc353…30a8backed Over | 49c | 22.65$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.55 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- SG Dynamo Dresden vs. SC Preußen Münster: O/U 2.5this page
- SG Dynamo Dresden vs. SC Preußen Münster: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- SG Dynamo Dresden vs. SC Preußen Münster: O/U 1.5Over won
- SG Dynamo Dresden vs. SC Preußen Münster: O/U 3.5Over won
- SG Dynamo Dresden vs. SC Preußen Münster: O/U 4.5Over won
- Spread: SC Preußen Münster (-1.5)SG Dynamo Dresden won
- Spread: SG Dynamo Dresden (-1.5)SG Dynamo Dresden won
- Spread: SG Dynamo Dresden (-2.5)SG Dynamo Dresden won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.