Premier League · resolved market
FA Cup: Aston Villa vs. Tottenham (To Advance)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x65feddd3f225b634f7602629f14b2fab5be821f89915ba8802d8c3cd05b26ddb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Aston Villaof Aston Villa, Tottenham
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,015
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,024
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,015 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb0e0…68a8backed Tottenham | 32c | 3,455$1,106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,105.62 | 43 | 39.5%17 W · 26 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe626…2fe6backed Aston Villa | 73c | 3,425$2,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$925.21 | 42 | 64.3%27 W · 15 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad18…0b4fbacked Tottenham | 30c | 3,382$1,014 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,014.46 | 92 | 38%35 W · 57 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2765…7ee4backed Aston Villa | 70c | 2,164$1,519 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$644.65 | 342 | 51.8%177 W · 165 L | +21.9wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x38f1…9ff1backed Aston Villa | 68c | 2,000$1,360 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$639.99 | 321 | 58.9%189 W · 132 L | +13.6wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x07dd…ed9dbacked Tottenham | 17c | 1,741$291 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$291 | 184 | 33.7%62 W · 122 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaeb5…58e2backed Tottenham | 32c | 1,000$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320 | 449 | 39.6%178 W · 271 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5314…910cbacked Tottenham | 27c | 839.9$227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.48 | 97 | 54.6%53 W · 44 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6834…2bd2backed Aston Villa | 71c | 788.83$560 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$228.83 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf00f…711abacked Aston Villa | 68c | 774.46$530 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244.72 | 56 | 50%28 W · 28 L | -4.0wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4dc2…0933backed Aston Villa | 70c | 765.51$538 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$227.51 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.26per pick | 51cpaid | -64.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked Aston Villa | 67c | 588$397 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.12 | 834 | 59.4%495 W · 339 L | +25.1wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf25…224cbacked Tottenham | 30c | 499.99$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x519f…2af7backed Tottenham | 33c | 454.55$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c46…be29backed Tottenham | 33c | 421.14$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.78 | 327 | 36.4%119 W · 208 L | -21.2wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Aston Villa | 68c | 261.25$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.6 | 245 | 66.1%162 W · 83 L | +24.5wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8c76…477abacked Tottenham | 30c | 250$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 253 | 39.1%99 W · 154 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x20da…e704backed Tottenham | 31c | 223.54$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.03 | 91 | 11%10 W · 81 L | -7.4wins | -0.08per pick | 19cpaid | -46%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf01d…4864backed Tottenham | 32c | 211.59$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.71 | 38 | 28.9%11 W · 27 L | -4.9wins | -0.13per pick | 42cpaid | -21%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5327…3b80backed Tottenham | 24c | 151.2$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 57 | 40.4%23 W · 34 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd44c…ab91backed Aston Villa | 76c | 149.79$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.33 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb43c…d43bbacked Aston Villa | 70c | 142.86$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.86 | 40 | 55%22 W · 18 L | +3.7wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Aston Villa | 71c | 141.72$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.72 | 296 | 53%157 W · 139 L | -23.0wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Aston Villa | 71c | 140.85$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.85 | 427 | 55%235 W · 192 L | -23.4wins | -0.05per pick | 61cpaid | -11%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbfe8…fcabbacked Tottenham | 31c | 102.26$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcef7…e7d7backed Aston Villa | 72c | 100$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 369 | 54.5%201 W · 168 L | +50.1wins | +0.14per pick | 41cpaid | +91.7%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x8b21…41fabacked Aston Villa | 69c | 100$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 178 | 37.6%67 W · 111 L | -6.2wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -16%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7bbf…2760backed Tottenham | 28c | 100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 72 | 41.7%30 W · 42 L | -3.7wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7657…4fa6backed Tottenham | 31c | 96.77$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5179…2b29backed Tottenham | 29c | 92.17$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.66 | 655 | 57.7%378 W · 277 L | +26.0wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8c65…3b35backed Tottenham | 22c | 89.66$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.04 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca65…3dbbbacked Tottenham | 30c | 87.74$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.32 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.4wins | -0.30per pick | 55cpaid | -66.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2453…28e2backed Tottenham | 29c | 70$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.3 | 256 | 37.9%97 W · 159 L | -7.0wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdd4…7696backed Tottenham | 31c | 64.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 146 | 43.2%63 W · 83 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad9d…9b95backed Tottenham | 29c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 160 | 60%96 W · 64 L | +15.0wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x96e3…83d2backed Tottenham | 31c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 31 | 19.4%6 W · 25 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e46…37d3backed Aston Villa | 70c | 28.57$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.57 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf92…37eabacked Aston Villa | 72c | 27.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.78 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -4.6wins | -0.20per pick | 55cpaid | -41.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf641…7b6fbacked Aston Villa | 73c | 14$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.78 | 697 | 72.6%506 W · 191 L | +83.8wins | +0.12per pick | 61cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.