TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

South American Leagues · resolved market

LDU de Quito vs. Mirassol FC: O/U 2.5

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Underof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$35,645
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$44,874

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $35,645 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x74d0…de45backed Over50c3,504$1,764 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,764.049248.9%45 W · 47 L+2.9wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+4.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xfe02…dababacked Under38c3,096$1,163 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,933.331127.3%3 W · 8 L-2.1wins-0.19per pick47cpaid-36.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xf658…655ebacked Under50c2,936$1,455 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,481.7911055.5%61 W · 49 L-3.1wins-0.03per pick58cpaid-5.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd5b7…125cbacked Over5c1,801$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.31333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.07per pick26cpaid-45.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Over62c1,690$1,041 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,040.655,75745.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L+94.0wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-7.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9659…1ba2backed Under38c1,339$509 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$830.131100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.62per pick38cpaid+163.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb1ef…9fadbacked Over53c1,327$703 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$703.212354.5%67 W · 56 L-2.5wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-3.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbf1b…09aebacked Over80c1,235$988 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9882572%18 W · 7 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick69cpaid+3.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5155…7b9fbacked Under38c1,008$383 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$625.041100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.62per pick38cpaid+163.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0176…910ebacked Under20c952$190 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$761.62646.2%12 W · 14 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick49cpaid+3.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1384…2c75backed Under39c620.79$242 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$379.081100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.61per pick39cpaid+156.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xdb22…6478backed Under52c540.24$279 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$261.4229446.6%137 W · 157 L+0.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa0dc…586cbacked Under50c445.86$223 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$222.936555.4%36 W · 29 L+8.0wins+0.12per pick43cpaid+28.7%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Over39c419.91$165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$165.4672350.5%365 W · 358 L-24.9wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-9.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x77bc…b91bbacked Under48c315.56$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$165.262,17043.7%948 W · 1,222 L-53.8wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-19.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked Over48c259.77$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.643,40551.3%1,748 W · 1,657 L+21.3wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x44d5…1a5bbacked Over20c254.53$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.683630.6%11 W · 25 L-0.1wins0.00per pick31cpaid-8.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1b3d…7de0backed Under39c247.03$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$150.696753.7%36 W · 31 L+3.9wins+0.06per pick48cpaid+5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xec59…8151backed Over29c200$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$581020%2 W · 8 L-1.4wins-0.14per pick34cpaid-45.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xcc11…c87bbacked Under55c194.58$107 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.8519659.7%117 W · 79 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick59cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1966…da9ebacked Over50c193.39$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.019831.6%31 W · 67 L-11.2wins-0.11per pick43cpaid-24.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xc291…5d74backed Over58c193.37$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.563,74938.2%1,431 W · 2,318 L-33.3wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-8.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x85d8…3cbebacked Under52c186.77$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.6531745.1%143 W · 174 L-3.7wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-6.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa578…6702backed Over49c154.09$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.7517143.9%75 W · 96 L-9.2wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-11.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xdf68…ed10backed Over56c139.24$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.894156.1%23 W · 18 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick59cpaid-14.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe3dd…cdaebacked Under45c113.94$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.76666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick63cpaid+4.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6804…29e2backed Over61c99.21$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.0719356%108 W · 85 L-3.3wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-11.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc1eb…9d42backed Under26c95.56$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.71250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.21per pick29cpaid+92.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4a24…36ddbacked Under30c68.49$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.961241.7%5 W · 7 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick37cpaid+16.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2a69…d2f7backed Under43c59.43$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.882,51439%980 W · 1,534 L-32.2wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-14%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc353…30a8backed Over49c52.13$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.549936.4%36 W · 63 L-4.0wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-6.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb6d2…d67bbacked Over68c47.89$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.5729245.2%132 W · 160 L-24.0wins-0.08per pick53cpaid-23.2%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0xa3d4…6297backed Over36c47.11$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.963638.9%14 W · 22 L-1.8wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-13.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed Over53c45.95$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.511,36244.9%611 W · 751 L-22.0wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-19.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x134c…eeefbacked Over56c43.64$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.344930.6%15 W · 34 L-5.3wins-0.11per pick41cpaid-23.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x36f9…5445backed Over64c38.22$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.4617261%105 W · 67 L+4.8wins+0.03per pick58cpaid+3.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xef41…2473backed Under53c38.19$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.959240.2%37 W · 55 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-5.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xef5c…6ababacked Under59c36.94$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.156274.2%46 W · 16 L+8.7wins+0.14per pick60cpaid+19.6%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x129b…190abacked Under59c33.06$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.566753.7%36 W · 31 L+3.0wins+0.04per pick49cpaid-0.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd60c…2b06backed Over57c32.96$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.7933658.3%196 W · 140 L+32.4wins+0.10per pick49cpaid+19.2%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xef18…4d70backed Over57c28.57$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.2931355.6%174 W · 139 L+24.8wins+0.08per pick48cpaid+16.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x639f…6911backed Under43c26.16$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.02450%2 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.17per pick33cpaid+8.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1399…37e6backed Over61c24.01$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.65666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.08per pick58cpaid+19.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5bfe…0741backed Under52c20.92$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.048047.5%38 W · 42 L-3.6wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-10.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Under80c18.1$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.621,32857%757 W · 571 L+57.8wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+5.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.