College Football · resolved market
Will Oregon beat Boise State?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x662e8f0559be62c746988a4eb36433b49a6daf3f223050b98dee7837ff88bbf8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Oregonof Oregon, Boise St
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- College Footballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $77,867
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $76,738
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $77,867 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in College Football is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in College Football | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2a14…0762backed Oregon | 67c | 25,712$17,226 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,485.97 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f91…907fbacked Boise St | 27c | 10,746$2,859 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,858.56 | 65 | 47.7%31 W · 34 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3102…406abacked Boise St | 40c | 9,632$3,848 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,848.29 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.15per pick | 55cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x741e…2f80backed Boise St | 43c | 7,855$3,405 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,404.6 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | 0%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a12…01cebacked Boise St | 7c | 5,000$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x88ca…84acbacked Boise St | 29c | 4,444$1,289 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,288.76 | 36 | 50%18 W · 18 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e82…64abbacked Oregon | 64c | 3,600$2,316 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,284.32 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7fea…8f74backed Boise St | 44c | 2,536$1,103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,103.16 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.10per pick | 41cpaid | -51.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xecbe…42ffbacked Oregon | 69c | 1,424$979 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$445.17 | 242 | 29.3%71 W · 171 L | +8.7wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x002e…ab83backed Oregon | 72c | 1,405$1,008 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$397.1 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +39.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4e1…0b47backed Boise St | 18c | 1,218$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221.54 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x542c…f12bbacked Oregon | 55c | 1,200$659 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$541 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +89.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3168…6734backed Oregon | 79c | 1,195$940 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255.74 | 45 | 53.3%24 W · 21 L | +3.1wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Boise St | 15c | 1,000$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 398 | 47.7%190 W · 208 L | -6.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe41a…a42dbacked Boise St | 8c | 1,000$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 64 | 42.2%27 W · 37 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x63dd…c15fbacked Boise St | 14c | 732.58$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4975…c492backed Boise St | 20c | 570.07$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.18 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -2.4wins | -0.15per pick | 52cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb27d…fc9cbacked Oregon | 68c | 550.59$374 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.19 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b55…02f8backed Boise St | 5c | 500$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 27 | 63%17 W · 10 L | +4.6wins | +0.17per pick | 46cpaid | +31.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa805…83dcbacked Boise St | 12c | 450$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 102 | 20.6%21 W · 81 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb49…97a0backed Oregon | 57c | 368.42$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.42 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -4.0wins | -0.31per pick | 47cpaid | -73.3%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xee00…cea1backed Boise St | 10c | 247.67$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.77 | 170 | 48.2%82 W · 88 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe3c5…e38abacked Oregon | 56c | 152.77$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.22 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -1.4wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x024f…2ec0backed Boise St | 9c | 125$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 27cpaid | -62.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf59e…39cfbacked Boise St | 11c | 100.23$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01ee…9b19backed Oregon | 75c | 93.45$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.36 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba3f…8b64backed Oregon | 61c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.7 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.20per pick | 55cpaid | +47.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd1c…e2d3backed Oregon | 60c | 25.15$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.15 | 31 | 61.3%19 W · 12 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2efc…5686backed Oregon | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -45.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in College Football and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Oregon beat Boise State?this page
- Will Oregon win by 19 or more points?No won
- Will there be 61 or more combined points scored?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.