TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Denver be 59°F or below on April 25?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$16,223
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$17,758

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,223 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 82 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x594e…1c11backed Yes62c1,231$757 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$473.3666144.5%294 W · 367 L+57.8wins+0.09per pick36cpaid+26.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xcbbc…b5d0backed No25c919.11$227 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$226.64,49619.6%882 W · 3,614 L+49.5wins+0.01per pick19cpaid-1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0a19…3c95backed Yes40c761.9$304 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$457.9142857%244 W · 184 L+8.9wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+7.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes42c591.61$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$341.269,79944.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L+256.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x309c…09b5backed Yes80c488.69$389 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100.0428839.9%115 W · 173 L-13.1wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-8.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No17c481.56$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.6312,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2e62…b22ebacked No25c416.41$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.174926.7%200 W · 549 L-20.6wins-0.03per pick29cpaid-32.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x01a6…59b0backed No26c342.44$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.041,67961.7%1,036 W · 643 L+6.3wins0.00per pick61cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3680…f087backed Yes62c328.59$202 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$126.1324432.8%80 W · 164 L+4.0wins+0.02per pick31cpaid+3.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7b20…bc23backed No70c285$199 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.581165.8%534 W · 277 L-37.1wins-0.05per pick70cpaid-6.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xba96…95a7backed Yes80c245.2$196 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.2224029.2%70 W · 170 L-15.8wins-0.07per pick36cpaid-20.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xae68…064abacked No31c241.68$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.772,55563.8%1,631 W · 924 L+38.4wins+0.02per pick62cpaid+8.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes27c197.64$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$144.6717,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf7a4…f148backed No22c184.45$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.121,42934.5%493 W · 936 L-6.8wins0.00per pick35cpaid-4.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed No19c148.53$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.827,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0x65df…6144backed Yes51c142.92$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.186137.7%23 W · 38 L-8.4wins-0.14per pick51cpaid-20.6%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xef6a…18e8backed No73c127.46$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.037360.3%44 W · 29 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-8.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x316f…ccebbacked Yes67c119.88$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.94850%4 W · 4 L+1.0wins+0.12per pick38cpaid-7.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xef98…b586backed No38c113.37$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.2890734.5%313 W · 594 L-5.9wins-0.01per pick35cpaid+3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe6c8…b8c0backed No71c107.87$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.3432830.5%100 W · 228 L+1.3wins0.00per pick30cpaid-1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes37c107.21$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.31,84037%681 W · 1,159 L-8.2wins0.00per pick37cpaid-18.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x906f…371abacked Yes71c103.57$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.072,49569.9%1,744 W · 751 L+80.3wins+0.03per pick67cpaid+5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x13e0…7465backed Yes72c99.69$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.3135233%116 W · 236 L-4.0wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-20.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd5ed…8b4bbacked Yes50c95.59$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.1111223.2%26 W · 86 L-2.4wins-0.02per pick25cpaid-18.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0b87…9414backed Yes67c89.51$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.542,00138.4%768 W · 1,233 L+1.7wins0.00per pick38cpaid-7.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xec25…dec6backed Yes73c82.7$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.411172.1%80 W · 31 L+7.6wins+0.07per pick65cpaid+8.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x5147…f078backed No49c75.78$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.386845.6%31 W · 37 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-15.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6606…4d70backed No67c69.48$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.588466.7%56 W · 28 L-2.2wins-0.03per pick69cpaid-4.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4179…cceebacked No74c66.11$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.6942976.5%328 W · 101 L+4.5wins+0.01per pick75cpaid+0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3ad5…8869backed Yes44c64.82$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.522100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.48per pick52cpaid+98.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8454…3587backed Yes77c64.5$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.6527376.6%209 W · 64 L+0.5wins0.00per pick76cpaid+0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x00b3…f08ebacked No18c62.68$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.181553.3%8 W · 7 L-0.8wins-0.05per pick59cpaid-14.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3d47…9383backed No22c60.75$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.37366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.07per pick59cpaid-14.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x69d2…2f75backed No47c59.66$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.073243.8%14 W · 18 L0.0wins0.00per pick44cpaid-4.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xadf5…20f8backed No32c57.86$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.82850%14 W · 14 L+1.0wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-15.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x607c…8e7ebacked No23c56.53$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.2896015%144 W · 816 L+9.2wins+0.01per pick14cpaid+4.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes59c55$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.753,93935.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L+35.4wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfed5…ee90backed Yes54c53.06$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.451844.4%8 W · 10 L+2.9wins+0.16per pick28cpaid+39.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xb964…927fbacked No46c50$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2318327.3%50 W · 133 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick26cpaid-11.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf2bb…ae21backed Yes80c49.43$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.9935362.9%222 W · 131 L+16.9wins+0.05per pick58cpaid+8.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc24f…81d3backed Yes76c49.11$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.9498571%699 W · 286 L+5.7wins+0.01per pick70cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked No29c46.6$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.652,11936.1%764 W · 1,355 L-12.1wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-26.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xde8a…a3fcbacked No68c46.45$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.6617355.5%96 W · 77 L+10.8wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+14.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x951c…d8c7backed Yes58c45.65$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.368335.4%242 W · 441 L-0.6wins0.00per pick36cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfba3…4e15backed No50c45$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.527851.8%144 W · 134 L+4.3wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+2.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5668…e477backed Yes65c44.41$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.45977.8%7 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.09per pick69cpaid+8.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9f8a…b076backed Yes45c43.22$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.920835.6%74 W · 134 L+6.6wins+0.03per pick32cpaid+8.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x94b1…27cbbacked Yes72c41.5$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.597570.6%688 W · 287 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick70cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xef2e…10c3backed Yes55c36.87$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.4840242.5%171 W · 231 L-12.4wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-12.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdc3f…f038backed No50c35$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.566141.8%276 W · 385 L-12.8wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-15.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x53bc…be7cbacked Yes73c34.25$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.2562770.5%442 W · 185 L-0.2wins0.00per pick71cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf55f…8e92backed No45c32.94$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.8216548.5%80 W · 85 L-13.3wins-0.08per pick57cpaid-19.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x1638…26b7backed No48c32.29$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.52646.2%12 W · 14 L-0.9wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-24%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc323…4408backed No42c31.8$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.4333567.5%226 W · 109 L-6.3wins-0.02per pick69cpaid-3.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x23d8…f6b9backed Yes60c31.68$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.6725175.7%190 W · 61 L+24.7wins+0.10per pick66cpaid+14%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xa98a…a5a8backed No64c30.53$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.412,01567.7%1,365 W · 650 L+1.8wins0.00per pick68cpaid+3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xce9a…8ea6backed Yes64c30.32$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.0518878.2%147 W · 41 L+19.4wins+0.10per pick68cpaid+17.2%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xd0cb…e91abacked Yes76c29.97$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.192100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+31.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcda7…2f51backed Yes68c29.41$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.41757.1%4 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.12per pick70cpaid-24.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd4a9…75f9backed No78c28.95$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.5826253.4%140 W · 122 L-2.9wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-9.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x35e6…7a4dbacked No55c28.92$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.891,69960.6%1,029 W · 670 L-24.7wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-6.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2cc7…54abbacked No46c28.18$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.8418650.5%94 W · 92 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeb54…d452backed No70c28$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.64,52565.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L-134.0wins-0.03per pick69cpaid-4.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc52a…e37abacked Yes77c27.36$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.2218272%131 W · 51 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick73cpaid-1.4%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x9770…d57dbacked Yes71c26.34$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.6648672%350 W · 136 L+9.4wins+0.02per pick70cpaid+1.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x34ab…4e36backed Yes74c26.32$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.8419772.6%143 W · 54 L+4.7wins+0.02per pick70cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xea0d…c1b6backed Yes68c25.75$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.2421676.4%165 W · 51 L+12.5wins+0.06per pick71cpaid+5.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xae47…638dbacked Yes72c23.77$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.6852571.2%374 W · 151 L+4.7wins+0.01per pick70cpaid+0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8891…b5fcbacked Yes74c23.61$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.234062.5%25 W · 15 L-2.2wins-0.05per pick68cpaid+6.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe386…4d91backed Yes72c22.86$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.44812.5%1 W · 7 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick12cpaid-82.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8208…a737backed Yes72c22.34$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.1922675.7%171 W · 55 L+9.0wins+0.04per pick72cpaid+6.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No79c22.25$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.54,96168.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L+65.6wins+0.01per pick67cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xecd5…ebdcbacked Yes74c21.06$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.486481.3%52 W · 12 L+6.2wins+0.10per pick71cpaid+13%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x7f7b…bc29backed Yes72c20.58$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.7114666.4%97 W · 49 L-3.0wins-0.02per pick69cpaid-4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2869…527dbacked No76c20.01$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.1493734.9%327 W · 610 L-203.5wins-0.22per pick57cpaid-43.2%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0xf028…c88cbacked Yes55c19.86$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.94955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.9wins+0.09per pick46cpaid+26%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc0da…4162backed Yes78c19.56$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.314953.7%80 W · 69 L+9.2wins+0.06per pick48cpaid+15.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf5dc…dec3backed Yes75c19.56$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.891,36069.3%943 W · 417 L+9.4wins+0.01per pick69cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf1c1…1bebbacked Yes77c19.54$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.4927648.6%134 W · 142 L+3.4wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2c08…724fbacked Yes69c15.57$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.836073.3%44 W · 16 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick72cpaid+0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xad65…b49ebacked Yes74c15.08$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.927771.4%55 W · 22 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick71cpaid-0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2dba…5b01backed Yes74c15.06$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.975766.7%38 W · 19 L-3.2wins-0.06per pick72cpaid-9.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.