Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 18°C or higher on April 9?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6632d9dec7b85e5d4cd70ed0abbb1ce05daa215bc1deead7da2d4df6b2686567
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $35,081
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $36,721
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $35,081 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4e5c…d892backed No | 75c | 4,653$3,476 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,475.71 | 570 | 44.9%256 W · 314 L | +36.5wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +13%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1729…11afbacked Yes | 3c | 2,000$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,939.96 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.47per pick | 3cpaid | +1,566.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85bd…7f75backed Yes | 26c | 1,570$414 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,156.11 | 253 | 62.8%159 W · 94 L | +16.0wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8103…23a1backed Yes | 3c | 1,334$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,293.46 | 576 | 14.9%86 W · 490 L | +14.1wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8817…cda8backed No | 31c | 1,263$385 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$385.24 | 248 | 41.1%102 W · 146 L | -13.5wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 22c | 1,133$251 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$882.43 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9532…6bc1backed No | 4c | 1,078$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.05 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 27cpaid | -74%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c0f…99d0backed Yes | 30c | 1,014$305 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$709.52 | 864 | 20.1%174 W · 690 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x19e1…976dbacked No | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 191 | 1%2 W · 189 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdfb1…baffbacked No | 2c | 910.93$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.66 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1775…85b0backed Yes | 26c | 676.51$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$498.96 | 366 | 48.4%177 W · 189 L | +25.4wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x48ec…8f36backed No | 15c | 662$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.96 | 69 | 43.5%30 W · 39 L | +12.2wins | +0.18per pick | 26cpaid | +201.5%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed No | 6c | 586.71$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.13 | 621 | 9.8%61 W · 560 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6b2…8e12backed Yes | 10c | 524.16$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$472.56 | 474 | 42.4%201 W · 273 L | -9.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed22…6450backed Yes | 17c | 401.52$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$334.08 | 431 | 39.2%169 W · 262 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2be6…e054backed Yes | 13c | 316.26$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$275.9 | 343 | 19.5%67 W · 276 L | +22.4wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | +19%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x08ce…f301backed Yes | 19c | 306.77$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$249.88 | 353 | 23.2%82 W · 271 L | -16.4wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -54.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 4c | 251.41$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$241.35 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 71c | 221.14$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.23 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 15c | 200$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0877…6770backed Yes | 7c | 160$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.28 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 70c | 133.59$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.34 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xdad6…0d14backed Yes | 26c | 132.11$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.3 | 148 | 29.7%44 W · 104 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 67c | 130.16$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.5 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5191…0c35backed Yes | 9c | 112.8$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.31 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | +2.2wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4c8e…b38fbacked Yes | 29c | 99.8$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.15 | 185 | 30.3%56 W · 129 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc81…1cf8backed Yes | 15c | 93.34$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.47 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.85per pick | 15cpaid | +573%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 12c | 92.65$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.46 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba2d…2f32backed No | 15c | 86.33$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.29 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 27cpaid | -75%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a8…9f68backed Yes | 13c | 83.12$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.72 | 346 | 33.8%117 W · 229 L | +17.3wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaad7…cf8fbacked No | 77c | 82.3$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.26 | 861 | 73.2%630 W · 231 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbecc…f560backed No | 17c | 75.98$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.99 | 51 | 29.4%15 W · 36 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -19%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa739…e31abacked No | 74c | 71.7$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.82 | 49 | 53.1%26 W · 23 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 30c | 69.69$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.95 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0676…3b27backed No | 75c | 64.96$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.74 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 71cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 37c | 57.9$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.55 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa0b1…6754backed No | 71c | 48.55$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.47 | 354 | 65%230 W · 124 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef0d…ef1cbacked No | 57c | 35.24$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.02 | 218 | 48.6%106 W · 112 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb211…10b3backed No | 76c | 29.27$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.1 | 94 | 53.2%50 W · 44 L | -6.0wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x840a…7ababacked No | 61c | 20.05$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.13 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x13f3…d427backed No | 76c | 19.94$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.15 | 326 | 69%225 W · 101 L | -10.2wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x23d8…f6b9backed No | 72c | 19.44$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 251 | 75.7%190 W · 61 L | +24.7wins | +0.10per pick | 66cpaid | +14%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfff1…12e4backed No | 52c | 19.32$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 45 | 35.6%16 W · 29 L | -5.2wins | -0.12per pick | 47cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbfe8…6d0abacked No | 52c | 19.32$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 37 | 51.4%19 W · 18 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf4b7…91f8backed No | 78c | 17.65$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.69 | 77 | 77.9%60 W · 17 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 75cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x34ab…4e36backed No | 64c | 16.57$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 197 | 72.6%143 W · 54 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 70cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x920d…af4bbacked No | 72c | 15.72$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.24 | 199 | 70.4%140 W · 59 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 70cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Busan be 18°C or higher on April 9?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Busan be 13°C on April 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Busan be 14°C on April 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Busan be 15°C on April 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Busan be 16°C on April 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Busan be 17°C on April 9?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.