TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Ncaa Basketball · resolved market

Spread: UMBC Retrievers (-2.5)

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Bryant Bulldogsof UMBC Retrievers, Bryant Bulldogs
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$6,554
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$6,765

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,554 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 17 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xe60a…6a47backed UMBC Retrievers48c5,441$2,590 inLost-$2,590.062,57947.3%1,221 W · 1,358 L-42.7wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-6.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Bryant Bulldogs52c2,437$1,272 inWon+$1,164.055,94649.3%2,932 W · 3,014 L+163.0wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-0.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa965…3565backed Bryant Bulldogs50c750$378 inWon+$372.549746.5%231 W · 266 L+0.2wins0.00per pick46cpaid+2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Bryant Bulldogs54c719.26$389 inWon+$330.054,84852.2%2,532 W · 2,316 L+139.2wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Bryant Bulldogs53c584.65$312 inWon+$272.3812,42249.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L+118.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1f3f…5878backed Bryant Bulldogs51c515.39$264 inWon+$251.326740.8%109 W · 158 L+4.9wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb9fc…da76backed Bryant Bulldogs54c250$135 inWon+$11540147.6%191 W · 210 L+7.6wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1a52…9ad6backed Bryant Bulldogs57c140.35$80 inWon+$60.353663.9%23 W · 13 L+2.2wins+0.06per pick58cpaid+9.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6008…a80bbacked UMBC Retrievers45c119.42$53 inLost-$53.444,55250.1%2,279 W · 2,273 L-36.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed UMBC Retrievers31c94.98$29 inLost-$29.062,25442.2%951 W · 1,303 L+3.4wins0.00per pick42cpaid-5.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf588…2b81backed UMBC Retrievers23c64.94$15 inLost-$14.942,12450.4%1,070 W · 1,054 L+40.6wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+0.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x114f…4602backed Bryant Bulldogs77c64.94$50 inWon+$14.943100%3 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+31.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x34fa…f491backed Bryant Bulldogs52c55.52$29 inWon+$26.651,07046.9%502 W · 568 L-0.1wins0.00per pick47cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa8f5…1caabacked Bryant Bulldogs55c53$29 inWon+$23.851,12446.4%521 W · 603 L-25.0wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9c76…c926backed Bryant Bulldogs54c50$27 inWon+$2389146.2%412 W · 479 L+9.8wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa4bd…e8a2backed Bryant Bulldogs54c26.35$14 inWon+$12.121,98564.1%1,273 W · 712 L+144.2wins+0.07per pick57cpaid+7.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x47ba…a503backed Bryant Bulldogs51c19.61$10 inWon+$9.6111841.5%49 W · 69 L-5.5wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-16.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.