Tennis · resolved market
ITF Roehampton: Mark Ceban vs George Loffhagen
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x66742e9349d321256123c96ffba4575b2d707b9fc2517cf62d5e6a13bde27787
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Mark Cebanof Mark Ceban, George Loffhagen
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,312
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,738
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,312 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe907…cff6backed George Loffhagen | 0c | 9,668$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.63 | 2,854 | 39.5%1,126 W · 1,728 L | -83.5wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked George Loffhagen | 23c | 349.86$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.77 | 11,435 | 43.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L | +17.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d79…9e95backed Mark Ceban | 64c | 313.21$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.21 | 148 | 52.7%78 W · 70 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Mark Ceban | 25c | 293.99$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220.99 | 1,227 | 53.2%653 W · 574 L | -5.2wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed George Loffhagen | 75c | 270$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.5 | 8,828 | 36.1%3,190 W · 5,638 L | -193.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed George Loffhagen | 25c | 225.76$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.95 | 8,505 | 42.6%3,619 W · 4,886 L | -166.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1747…4afcbacked George Loffhagen | 47c | 215.83$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.44 | 221 | 52%115 W · 106 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefbc…b344backed Mark Ceban | 19c | 140.06$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.45 | 301 | 47.5%143 W · 158 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93cb…3485backed George Loffhagen | 58c | 111$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.38 | 306 | 39.9%122 W · 184 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x402a…624fbacked Mark Ceban | 53c | 93$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.71 | 250 | 48.8%122 W · 128 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2326…b627backed Mark Ceban | 54c | 90.69$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.72 | 1,256 | 65.4%821 W · 435 L | +11.4wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb11a…a5d9backed George Loffhagen | 23c | 65.71$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 127 | 48.8%62 W · 65 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc02…ce2abacked Mark Ceban | 79c | 47.11$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.89 | 215 | 72.6%156 W · 59 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 73cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa55c…1066backed Mark Ceban | 56c | 45.67$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.14 | 443 | 49%217 W · 226 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8e4…3b32backed Mark Ceban | 52c | 43.75$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.14 | 429 | 46.4%199 W · 230 L | -7.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca9…424abacked George Loffhagen | 33c | 42.91$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.22 | 1,710 | 53.7%918 W · 792 L | +30.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d38…cc4ebacked George Loffhagen | 78c | 24.18$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.86 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -3.2wins | -0.27per pick | 69cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x04fc…eba1backed Mark Ceban | 54c | 23.02$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.59 | 124 | 67.7%84 W · 40 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5974…5c32backed George Loffhagen | 47c | 22.34$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 455 | 66.4%302 W · 153 L | +10.7wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2996…fd9dbacked Mark Ceban | 68c | 21.14$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.66 | 89 | 62.9%56 W · 33 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.