Asian League · resolved market
Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs. Nagoya Grampus: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x668d15fa89fb3fceb30ae1d9188b8f0219d32793feeb1b5efdb62bdb9f703e45
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Asian Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,013
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,383
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,013 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 17 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Asian League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Asian League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3cec…d241backed Under | 21c | 730.9$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28e2…d3abbacked Under | 19c | 526.31$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 68 | 19.1%13 W · 55 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Under | 19c | 432.55$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.18 | 1,651 | 50.9%840 W · 811 L | +5.8wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked Under | 18c | 371.77$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.92 | 396 | 49.7%197 W · 199 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 18c | 231.85$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.73 | 1,764 | 50.2%886 W · 878 L | +31.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed Under | 18c | 204.53$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.82 | 388 | 49.5%192 W · 196 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Over | 79c | 203.46$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.73 | 934 | 46.1%431 W · 503 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Over | 79c | 158$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.18 | 1,117 | 46.2%516 W · 601 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 18c | 113.78$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.55 | 1,221 | 50.2%613 W · 608 L | +12.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 17c | 105.79$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.2 | 5,946 | 46.1%2,743 W · 3,203 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 13c | 94.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.35 | 2,522 | 42.3%1,067 W · 1,455 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e05…2ebcbacked Under | 18c | 67.78$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | -3.1wins | -0.11per pick | 50cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3e96…b306backed Under | 20c | 62.76$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.55 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -4.5wins | -0.30per pick | 50cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xbd93…56c0backed Over | 73c | 35.44$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.57 | 207 | 69.6%144 W · 63 L | +31.9wins | +0.15per pick | 54cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xd074…5a54backed Over | 74c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.16 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 72cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe05…ec89backed Over | 80c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c78…e29bbacked Over | 73c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.05 | 80 | 67.5%54 W · 26 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Asian League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs. Nagoya Grampus: O/U 1.5this page
- Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs. Nagoya Grampus: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs. Nagoya Grampus: O/U 2.5Over won
- Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs. Nagoya Grampus: O/U 3.5Over won
- Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs. Nagoya Grampus: O/U 4.5Over won
- Spread: Nagoya Grampus (-1.5)Sanfrecce Hiroshima won
- Spread: Sanfrecce Hiroshima (-1.5)Sanfrecce Hiroshima won
- Spread: Sanfrecce Hiroshima (-2.5)Nagoya Grampus won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.