Asian League · resolved market
Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs. Nagoya Grampus: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa44887844fd8ef7b1de084c1effc039172014caba818b88a8df87e5f7fef55ca
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Asian Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,968
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,940
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,968 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 17 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Asian League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Asian League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8fb7…02d8backed Over | 40c | 736.05$294 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$441.63 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdebb…eedbbacked Over | 35c | 509.61$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$331.56 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +15%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Under | 62c | 315.63$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.6 | 2,491 | 40%997 W · 1,494 L | -18.8wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 62c | 258.35$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.54 | 5,946 | 46.1%2,743 W · 3,203 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 66c | 177.5$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.86 | 1,522 | 54.9%835 W · 687 L | +5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x27ca…e628backed Over | 40c | 101.77$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.06 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +1.9wins | +0.10per pick | 32cpaid | +20%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x02bc…1fd2backed Under | 66c | 99.99$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.99 | 340 | 50.9%173 W · 167 L | +19.3wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9df2…99f5backed Over | 35c | 71.42$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.42 | 188 | 38.8%73 W · 115 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 65c | 60$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 1,970 | 54.4%1,071 W · 899 L | +32.9wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6474…7ab8backed Over | 34c | 58.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.82 | 65 | 32.3%21 W · 44 L | -5.6wins | -0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1399…48c8backed Over | 32c | 50$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.25 | 345 | 60%207 W · 138 L | +49.3wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 65c | 48.88$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.86 | 1,221 | 50.2%613 W · 608 L | +12.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d5e…c32abacked Under | 65c | 41.32$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.86 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.29per pick | 51cpaid | +258.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked Under | 61c | 39.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.4 | 423 | 51.3%217 W · 206 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0bb1…daf7backed Over | 39c | 28.21$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.21 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +4.7wins | +0.31per pick | 29cpaid | +95.3%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xc45a…1565backed Under | 69c | 25$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.13 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -3.0wins | -0.18per pick | 56cpaid | -32%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Under | 67c | 25$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.75 | 564 | 45.4%256 W · 308 L | -25.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Asian League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs. Nagoya Grampus: O/U 3.5this page
- Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs. Nagoya Grampus: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs. Nagoya Grampus: O/U 1.5Over won
- Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs. Nagoya Grampus: O/U 2.5Over won
- Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs. Nagoya Grampus: O/U 4.5Over won
- Spread: Nagoya Grampus (-1.5)Sanfrecce Hiroshima won
- Spread: Sanfrecce Hiroshima (-1.5)Sanfrecce Hiroshima won
- Spread: Sanfrecce Hiroshima (-2.5)Nagoya Grampus won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.