Asian League · resolved market

Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs. Nagoya Grampus: O/U 2.5

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7461398fe8aaa5a082feb8c77c63337954db8ba72bef3fe14c8b1bc7d9f4b156

Rebuilt 4 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Overof Over, Under
Resolved: May 23, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Asian Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $49,967
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $51,217

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $49,967 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 83 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Asian League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Asian League
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x38f0…2768backed Over	60c	34,717$20,787 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13,930.27	36	50%18 W · 18 L	-0.7wins	-0.02per pick	52cpaid	-5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed Under	40c	8,259$3,277 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,276.64	1,221	50.2%613 W · 608 L	+12.0wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+1.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Under	40c	3,995$1,596 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,596.23	2,522	42.3%1,067 W · 1,455 L	+54.6wins	+0.02per pick	40cpaid	-5.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under	40c	3,057$1,229 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,229.35	1,764	50.2%886 W · 878 L	+31.3wins	+0.02per pick	48cpaid	+6.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Under	40c	2,445$982 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$982.37	1,725	50.6%873 W · 852 L	+28.5wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+2.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Under	43c	2,355$1,013 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,012.78	5,946	46.1%2,743 W · 3,203 L	+50.5wins	+0.01per pick	45cpaid	-6.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa742…68c5backed Under	46c	2,000$920 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$919.99	28	53.6%15 W · 13 L	-0.4wins	-0.01per pick	55cpaid	-3.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7236…ea53backed Under	40c	1,600$640 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$640	183	53%97 W · 86 L	+3.2wins	+0.02per pick	51cpaid	+5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1d16…212ebacked Under	37c	1,334$500 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$500	11	54.5%6 W · 5 L	+0.9wins	+0.08per pick	47cpaid	+15.5%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x374a…03edbacked Under	40c	1,200$480 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$480	120	50%60 W · 60 L	-3.2wins	-0.03per pick	53cpaid	-8.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5cb4…4576backed Under	40c	875$350 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$350.4	117	64.1%75 W · 42 L	+11.7wins	+0.10per pick	54cpaid	+17.6%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0xe1a6…d584backed Under	40c	700$280 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$280	131	54.2%71 W · 60 L	+1.2wins	+0.01per pick	53cpaid	-0.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdc29…383bbacked Under	41c	600$246 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$246	94	41.5%39 W · 55 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	42cpaid	-7.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xfb13…5946backed Under	40c	600$240 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$240	172	47.1%81 W · 91 L	-8.2wins	-0.05per pick	52cpaid	-12.1%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x40d0…4415backed Under	40c	592$237 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$236.8	168	56%94 W · 74 L	+1.1wins	+0.01per pick	55cpaid	+2.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8987…02f3backed Under	40c	501.5$201 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200.6	52	50%26 W · 26 L	-1.8wins	-0.03per pick	53cpaid	-3.4%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xfe11…18cfbacked Under	40c	500$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	33	42.4%14 W · 19 L	-3.1wins	-0.09per pick	52cpaid	-26.7%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6e05…2ebcbacked Under	40c	500$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	28	39.3%11 W · 17 L	-3.1wins	-0.11per pick	50cpaid	-30.7%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xca89…7bc4backed Under	40c	500$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	153	49.7%76 W · 77 L	-5.9wins	-0.04per pick	54cpaid	-8.7%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x47fb…0c7bbacked Under	40c	500$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	28	46.4%13 W · 15 L	-1.9wins	-0.07per pick	53cpaid	-18.6%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x800a…0b4dbacked Over	59c	477.03$281 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$196.03	93	44.1%41 W · 52 L	+2.3wins	+0.02per pick	42cpaid	+8.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3388…61d7backed Under	40c	400$160 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$160	211	52.1%110 W · 101 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	52cpaid	+3.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x288a…0048backed Under	40c	400$160 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$160	144	53.5%77 W · 67 L	+0.8wins	+0.01per pick	53cpaid	-1.3%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0xc718…64a8backed Over	54c	371.06$200 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$170.69	304	64.8%197 W · 107 L	+6.1wins	+0.02per pick	63cpaid	-0.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3f6a…a7bfbacked Under	40c	300$120 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$120	154	54.5%84 W · 70 L	+2.5wins	+0.02per pick	53cpaid	+1.4%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe75e…4b67backed Under	40c	300$120 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$120	161	52.2%84 W · 77 L	-1.3wins	-0.01per pick	53cpaid	-4.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5d5a…4289backed Under	41c	292.68$120 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$120	32	46.9%15 W · 17 L	-1.0wins	-0.03per pick	50cpaid	-7.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x77bc…b91bbacked Over	60c	287.58$173 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$114.33	1,356	45.5%617 W · 739 L	+15.0wins	+0.01per pick	44cpaid	-13.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x97dc…d8a5backed Over	63c	285.71$180 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$105.71	22	77.3%17 W · 5 L	+3.4wins	+0.15per pick	62cpaid	+26.3%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x606f…b043backed Under	40c	260$104 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$104	150	50.7%76 W · 74 L	-3.6wins	-0.02per pick	53cpaid	-6.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8f8b…9e2dbacked Under	40c	260$104 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$104	144	52.1%75 W · 69 L	-2.2wins	-0.02per pick	54cpaid	-4.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3bdc…3a4ebacked Under	42c	250.99$105 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$105.42	6	0%0 W · 6 L	-2.8wins	-0.46per pick	46cpaid	-100%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed Under	42c	250.27$106 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$105.88	1,522	54.9%835 W · 687 L	+5.9wins	0.00per pick	54cpaid	-6.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x25c5…0031backed Under	42c	238.1$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	20	30%6 W · 14 L	-3.8wins	-0.19per pick	49cpaid	-39.8%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x9e3b…5a53backed Over	58c	208.62$121 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$87.62	15	40%6 W · 9 L	-1.9wins	-0.13per pick	53cpaid	-22.6%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x0a16…9d73backed Under	40c	200.62$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80.25	64	39.1%25 W · 39 L	-8.3wins	-0.13per pick	52cpaid	-25%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0xbd38…99d4backed Over	58c	200$116 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$84	14	78.6%11 W · 3 L	+2.8wins	+0.20per pick	59cpaid	+43%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0xbffb…a60ebacked Under	37c	200$74 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$74	66	43.9%29 W · 37 L	-7.9wins	-0.12per pick	56cpaid	-20.8%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0x0346…52a5backed Over	60c	191.17$115 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$76.17	2,491	40%997 W · 1,494 L	-18.8wins	-0.01per pick	41cpaid	-0.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x36e6…ad16backed Over	59c	170.55$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$70.55	5	40%2 W · 3 L	-0.9wins	-0.19per pick	59cpaid	-31.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x60ab…e297backed Under	40c	160$64 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$64	126	52.4%66 W · 60 L	+0.6wins	0.00per pick	52cpaid	-1.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf1e0…041bbacked Under	40c	156$62 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$62.4	182	56%102 W · 80 L	+1.4wins	+0.01per pick	55cpaid	+2.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6fa1…6edbbacked Under	40c	156$62 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$62.4	149	53.7%80 W · 69 L	-0.7wins	0.00per pick	54cpaid	-1.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6ed3…0a22backed Under	40c	140$56 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$56	161	54.7%88 W · 73 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	55cpaid	-0.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1c25…6bbcbacked Over	57c	131.89$75 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$57.11	11	36.4%4 W · 7 L	-1.6wins	-0.14per pick	51cpaid	-38.8%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2d46…3e2dbacked Under	37c	129$47 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$47.41	63	41.3%26 W · 37 L	+5.0wins	+0.08per pick	33cpaid	+53.3%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x52d9…fb1abacked Over	63c	126.31$80 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$46.4	892	45%401 W · 491 L	-5.6wins	-0.01per pick	46cpaid	-2.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf22b…8f84backed Over	49c	102.04$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$52.04	36	66.7%24 W · 12 L	+1.6wins	+0.04per pick	62cpaid	+3.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6f81…2bb7backed Under	40c	100$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	162	55.6%90 W · 72 L	+2.4wins	+0.01per pick	54cpaid	-0.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x04a5…d093backed Under	40c	100$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	129	51.9%67 W · 62 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	52cpaid	-2.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xdd59…2e2fbacked Under	40c	100$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	179	53.6%96 W · 83 L	-2.8wins	-0.02per pick	55cpaid	-4.1%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1716…72aabacked Under	41c	99.92$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$41.29	7	57.1%4 W · 3 L	+1.0wins	+0.14per pick	43cpaid	+2.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x140e…cf85backed Under	42c	97.75$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$41	54	51.9%28 W · 26 L	-2.1wins	-0.04per pick	56cpaid	-2.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb3e4…d6b2backed Under	40c	90$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36	143	49.7%71 W · 72 L	-7.0wins	-0.05per pick	55cpaid	-10.8%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x200f…7a96backed Under	40c	88.5$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35.4	1,970	54.4%1,071 W · 899 L	+32.9wins	+0.02per pick	53cpaid	+2.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa494…4a1fbacked Under	40c	80$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32	101	56.4%57 W · 44 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	56cpaid	-0.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8ce7…3150backed Under	38c	75.13$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.55	44	27.3%12 W · 32 L	-7.3wins	-0.17per pick	44cpaid	-40.2%equal weight	38-0.11 edge/pick
0x5f43…3a74backed Under	40c	65$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26	82	50%41 W · 41 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-4.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9df2…99f5backed Under	40c	62.5$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	188	38.8%73 W · 115 L	-0.7wins	0.00per pick	39cpaid	+0.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x86fb…03d4backed Over	61c	61.08$37 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$23.82	140	58.6%82 W · 58 L	+4.6wins	+0.03per pick	55cpaid	+9.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5d1d…afd2backed Over	61c	61.08$37 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$23.82	401	56.4%226 W · 175 L	+6.5wins	+0.02per pick	55cpaid	+1.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfa52…eababacked Under	43c	58.14$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	16	18.8%3 W · 13 L	-4.9wins	-0.30per pick	49cpaid	-64.2%equal weight	37-0.12 edge/pick
0x0d5f…1171backed Under	40c	51.15$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.46	166	59.6%99 W · 67 L	-3.5wins	-0.02per pick	62cpaid	-7.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf474…2775backed Under	40c	50$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	16	56.3%9 W · 7 L	-2.7wins	-0.17per pick	73cpaid	-26.4%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x0444…55a5backed Under	40c	49.22$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.64	9	55.6%5 W · 4 L	+0.6wins	+0.07per pick	48cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6e8d…3a3dbacked Over	44c	45.45$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$25.45	66	50%33 W · 33 L	-2.0wins	-0.03per pick	53cpaid	-0.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc0f9…92e3backed Under	42c	45$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.9	50	50%25 W · 25 L	-2.9wins	-0.06per pick	56cpaid	-8.3%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc56b…3afdbacked Under	47c	42$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.74	9	55.6%5 W · 4 L	+0.6wins	+0.07per pick	49cpaid	+8.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc45a…1565backed Under	39c	41.48$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.01	16	37.5%6 W · 10 L	-3.0wins	-0.18per pick	56cpaid	-32%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x4a84…4406backed Under	41c	40.36$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.42	10	50%5 W · 5 L	+0.8wins	+0.08per pick	42cpaid	+12.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8acc…cc29backed Under	40c	40$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16	123	54.5%67 W · 56 L	-1.7wins	-0.01per pick	56cpaid	-3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3d90…3bbdbacked Under	42c	36$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.94	23	60.9%14 W · 9 L	+0.4wins	+0.02per pick	59cpaid	+8.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1a29…16c5backed Over	58c	34.48$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$14.48	112	43.8%49 W · 63 L	-2.1wins	-0.02per pick	46cpaid	+3.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6e23…94b2backed Under	40c	34.16$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.66	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-1.2wins	-0.60per pick	60cpaid	-100%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xbaa8…a410backed Over	63c	31.75$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11.75	8	37.5%3 W · 5 L	-0.8wins	-0.10per pick	48cpaid	-23.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd2a1…4ca0backed Over	62c	31.63$19 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.13	3	66.7%2 W · 1 L	+0.4wins	+0.15per pick	52cpaid	-3.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xffc9…bf01backed Over	64c	30.91$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11.13	64	65.6%42 W · 22 L	+4.3wins	+0.07per pick	59cpaid	+4.5%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8935…7daabacked Under	45c	30.8$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.79	564	45.4%256 W · 308 L	-25.0wins	-0.04per pick	50cpaid	-18.3%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2c4a…8e5dbacked Under	40c	30$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	60	48.3%29 W · 31 L	-1.9wins	-0.03per pick	51cpaid	-8.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xef18…4d70backed Over	59c	29.25$17 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.02	375	62.7%235 W · 140 L	+61.4wins	+0.16per pick	46cpaid	+36.3%equal weight	67+0.15 edge/pick
0x0c3e…3c4cbacked Over	48c	29.17$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15.2	199	65.3%130 W · 69 L	+27.3wins	+0.14per pick	52cpaid	+39.5%equal weight	64+0.12 edge/pick
0x3e96…b306backed Under	42c	27.49$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.55	15	20%3 W · 12 L	-4.5wins	-0.30per pick	50cpaid	-58.2%equal weight	38-0.11 edge/pick
0xb435…b97cbacked Over	63c	25$16 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9.2	30	70%21 W · 9 L	+5.0wins	+0.17per pick	53cpaid	+31.7%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Asian League and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs. Nagoya Grampus: O/U 2.5this page
Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs. Nagoya Grampus: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs. Nagoya Grampus: O/U 1.5Over won
Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs. Nagoya Grampus: O/U 3.5Over won
Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs. Nagoya Grampus: O/U 4.5Over won
Spread: Nagoya Grampus (-1.5)Sanfrecce Hiroshima won
Spread: Sanfrecce Hiroshima (-1.5)Sanfrecce Hiroshima won
Spread: Sanfrecce Hiroshima (-2.5)Nagoya Grampus won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs. Nagoya Grampus: O/U 2.5

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event