Fifa International · resolved market
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Iceland?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x66a3acec27ffc96f7e2d34ec5f3b0bd8a81229b6bb5e4a97b227a718b9a1e004
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,681
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,119
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,681 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 14 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc291…5d74backed No | 79c | 2,007$1,582 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,581.74 | 4,457 | 37.2%1,657 W · 2,800 L | +31.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4a2…b646backed Yes | 33c | 445.45$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$298.45 | 224 | 21.9%49 W · 175 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e4a…c29fbacked Yes | 19c | 263.16$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213.16 | 39 | 53.8%21 W · 18 L | +4.2wins | +0.11per pick | 43cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed Yes | 14c | 250$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215 | 42 | 35.7%15 W · 27 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe8b…517cbacked Yes | 15c | 225.13$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.36 | 186 | 14.5%27 W · 159 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0b8…5278backed Yes | 28c | 178.57$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.57 | 48 | 43.8%21 W · 27 L | -4.2wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe340…3adcbacked Yes | 14c | 107.14$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.14 | 56 | 25%14 W · 42 L | -2.9wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf79c…94eabacked Yes | 15c | 106.67$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.67 | 75 | 41.3%31 W · 44 L | +5.0wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe81b…f35abacked Yes | 33c | 106.06$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.06 | 401 | 45.4%182 W · 219 L | -9.4wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65f4…5222backed Yes | 15c | 102.38$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.38 | 268 | 35.4%95 W · 173 L | -8.4wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb2d6…90aabacked Yes | 14c | 100$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86 | 170 | 38.2%65 W · 105 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f3c…78a5backed Yes | 16c | 95.31$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.31 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.9wins | +0.38per pick | 22cpaid | +172.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 14c | 91.47$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.47 | 8,614 | 29.2%2,518 W · 6,096 L | -166.6wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5857…4297backed Yes | 14c | 82.79$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.2 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.36per pick | 39cpaid | +193.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Iceland?this page
- Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 0 Iceland?No won
- Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 1 Iceland?No won
- Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Iceland?No won
- Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Iceland?No won
- Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 2 Iceland?No won
- Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Iceland?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.