Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on April 14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x66b8afc0c246812098696af99f89d7458e643310056f68470a0b08feb2a1fe78
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,812
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,159
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,812 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 31c | 2,592$802 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$802.47 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 72c | 392.48$281 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.11 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 77c | 362.28$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.52 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed Yes | 38c | 264.87$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.54 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8208…a737backed No | 71c | 232.24$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.43 | 226 | 75.7%171 W · 55 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 72cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 77c | 212.11$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.79 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f26…abbabacked Yes | 26c | 207.67$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.51 | 113 | 31.9%36 W · 77 L | -4.1wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb85…f401backed Yes | 28c | 207.32$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.25 | 311 | 24.1%75 W · 236 L | -8.2wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae47…638dbacked No | 72c | 197.53$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.35 | 525 | 71.2%374 W · 151 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed Yes | 19c | 157.82$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.99 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed No | 66c | 121.98$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.72 | 985 | 71%699 W · 286 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed No | 60c | 121.6$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.9 | 1,026 | 64%657 W · 369 L | +49.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 25c | 109.04$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.1 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x951c…d8c7backed Yes | 33c | 99.63$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.88 | 683 | 35.4%242 W · 441 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1230…8e43backed No | 80c | 91.96$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.44 | 151 | 55.6%84 W · 67 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x121f…4765backed Yes | 13c | 88.77$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.54 | 22 | 18.2%4 W · 18 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc52f…0981backed No | 73c | 84.7$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.97 | 146 | 71.2%104 W · 42 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb14…0da7backed Yes | 32c | 84.3$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.96 | 249 | 21.3%53 W · 196 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 29c | 79$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.27 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc52a…e37abacked No | 78c | 74.61$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.39 | 182 | 72%131 W · 51 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 73cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…3de8backed Yes | 22c | 74.02$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.51 | 685 | 21.5%147 W · 538 L | +12.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f6…eadabacked No | 77c | 73.61$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.94 | 165 | 75.8%125 W · 40 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 72cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9fd…1902backed Yes | 31c | 63.66$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.42 | 112 | 57.1%64 W · 48 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51bb…a919backed No | 67c | 61.29$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.07 | 53 | 56.6%30 W · 23 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87a2…2250backed No | 61c | 54.98$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.34 | 170 | 66.5%113 W · 57 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 71cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea0d…c1b6backed No | 78c | 54.41$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.92 | 216 | 76.4%165 W · 51 L | +12.5wins | +0.06per pick | 71cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf211…385dbacked No | 77c | 53.66$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 70 | 40%28 W · 42 L | -3.3wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x58e6…9ac7backed No | 67c | 50.05$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.45 | 197 | 53.8%106 W · 91 L | -12.7wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x356b…1c3fbacked Yes | 23c | 44.96$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.19 | 591 | 25.9%153 W · 438 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f18…5b28backed No | 77c | 42.06$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.68 | 265 | 66.4%176 W · 89 L | +13.0wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd04c…c640backed No | 69c | 41.26$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.63 | 233 | 49.8%116 W · 117 L | -15.7wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -27%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x65b6…129dbacked Yes | 38c | 39.7$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.09 | 42 | 54.8%23 W · 19 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -11%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39d6…62a5backed No | 71c | 38.87$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.2 | 20 | 75%15 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 70cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x47f7…0312backed No | 78c | 38.46$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.46 | 146 | 63%92 W · 54 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 68c | 35.36$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.48 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad65…b49ebacked No | 72c | 30.22$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.33 | 77 | 71.4%55 W · 22 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6363…aa9ebacked No | 77c | 30.09$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.06 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -2.4wins | -0.26per pick | 71cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x102f…f81ebacked Yes | 34c | 29.85$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39fa…0b7dbacked No | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 407 | 77.1%314 W · 93 L | +28.1wins | +0.07per pick | 70cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 78c | 24.16$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.22 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9da…ed70backed No | 67c | 21.61$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.13 | 763 | 71.4%545 W · 218 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 64c | 20.71$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2736…fdb9backed No | 73c | 19.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 19 | 78.9%15 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 74cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd2f7…af3ebacked No | 76c | 19.12$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.59 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a1e…9095backed No | 78c | 18.73$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.06 | 173 | 76.3%132 W · 41 L | +11.7wins | +0.07per pick | 70cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd72d…9e9ebacked No | 77c | 17.83$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.15 | 39 | 87.2%34 W · 5 L | +5.5wins | +0.14per pick | 73cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cf…464bbacked No | 79c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.15 | 1,115 | 63.4%707 W · 408 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x749b…9e7fbacked No | 78c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.35 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 73cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1802…9b20backed No | 79c | 14.85$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.1 | 18 | 83.3%15 W · 3 L | +2.0wins | +0.11per pick | 72cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4c35…2aaebacked No | 73c | 14.67$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.96 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…27cbbacked No | 76c | 13.16$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.16 | 975 | 70.6%688 W · 287 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on April 14?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be 74°F or higher on April 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 60-61°F on April 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 62-63°F on April 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 64-65°F on April 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 66-67°F on April 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on April 14?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on April 14?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.