Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: VP.Prodigy vs Zero Tenacity - Game 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x66e615a1ea4b2f66c7265d7a2682c320d4399d5a91e68288ecd4ddb66dc0e2c3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Zero Tenacityof VP.Prodigy, Zero Tenacity
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,764
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,764 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x913c…39b3backed VP.Prodigy | 3c | 3,501$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.38 | 714 | 54.5%389 W · 325 L | +55.6wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ce…a57abacked VP.Prodigy | 44c | 1,131$497 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$497 | 1,202 | 59.3%713 W · 489 L | +64.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfe3f…0fcfbacked Zero Tenacity | 61c | 871.1$530 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$341.56 | 866 | 59.6%516 W · 350 L | -8.6wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Zero Tenacity | 61c | 805.18$494 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$311.51 | 2,012 | 44.2%889 W · 1,123 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x567e…e8fbbacked VP.Prodigy | 33c | 504.44$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.76 | 187 | 46.5%87 W · 100 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2133…7903backed VP.Prodigy | 11c | 456.73$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 344 | 43.9%151 W · 193 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb3…76a9backed Zero Tenacity | 52c | 376.35$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.65 | 517 | 51.3%265 W · 252 L | +21.8wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Zero Tenacity | 76c | 283.84$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.73 | 1,272 | 45%572 W · 700 L | -40.5wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked VP.Prodigy | 34c | 255.9$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.01 | 562 | 43.2%243 W · 319 L | +14.0wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61fa…7f62backed Zero Tenacity | 69c | 218.03$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.03 | 464 | 51.5%239 W · 225 L | -12.1wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb79…6274backed Zero Tenacity | 66c | 191.48$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.1 | 171 | 52%89 W · 82 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2454…89cbbacked VP.Prodigy | 39c | 169.23$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.22per pick | 42cpaid | -67.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb150…236dbacked VP.Prodigy | 18c | 142$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7627…4404backed VP.Prodigy | 39c | 129.07$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 148 | 32.4%48 W · 100 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe6d…9d6abacked Zero Tenacity | 67c | 98.37$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.66 | 40 | 65%26 W · 14 L | +3.1wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbbdf…b8a0backed Zero Tenacity | 66c | 64.42$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.9 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed Zero Tenacity | 72c | 48.64$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.69 | 2,828 | 43.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L | -39.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc67…5286backed VP.Prodigy | 41c | 32.56$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.28 | 666 | 62.2%414 W · 252 L | +60.2wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1ff2…cf14backed Zero Tenacity | 57c | 21.93$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.43 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | -2.4wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa74a…4893backed Zero Tenacity | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.73 | 361 | 38.2%138 W · 223 L | -20.4wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5a…bf71backed Zero Tenacity | 68c | 17.09$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.47 | 466 | 49.8%232 W · 234 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3006…ae16backed Zero Tenacity | 76c | 15.26$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.7 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -26%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: VP.Prodigy vs Zero Tenacity - Game 1 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: VP.Prodigy vs Zero Tenacity (BO3) - European Pro League PlayoffsZero Tenacity won
- Dota 2: VP.Prodigy vs Zero Tenacity - Game 2 WinnerZero Tenacity won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.