Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon post "Soccer" on X this week?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x66f09ed8083916a19dca038a917eb75ccd843112a1af95fb5738a86170de8832
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,879
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,334
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,879 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 9 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x75a7…21f7backed Yes | 1c | 871.65$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a4e…146fbacked Yes | 3c | 324.55$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.47 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26b2…6d5fbacked Yes | 26c | 235$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.8wins | +0.45per pick | 30cpaid | +340.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x726c…6bfdbacked No | 56c | 204.17$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.7 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +2.1wins | +0.21per pick | 59cpaid | +68.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 38c | 129.2$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.1 | 526 | 45.6%240 W · 286 L | -20.6wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3fbd…1760backed Yes | 39c | 38.8$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x347b…c9bcbacked Yes | 43c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfcc4…f3dabacked Yes | 46c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 47 | 53.2%25 W · 22 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x574b…8ee5backed Yes | 59c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon post "Soccer" on X this week?this page
- Will Elon post "Always" on X this week?Yes won
- Will Elon post "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" on X this week?No won
- Will Elon post "Football" on X this week?No won
- Will Elon post "IPO" on X this week?No won
- Will Elon post "Never" on X this week?No won
- Will Elon post "President" on X this week?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.