Champions League · resolved market
Will Sporting CP beat Manchester City?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x67299e35a5bc897b954aef98a6b73ed7be39cbd23e1fea244c4650dc1177b87e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Champions Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $28,771
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $33,602
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,771 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Champions League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Champions League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa614…e553backed No | 28c | 10,416$2,916 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,916.48 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.25per pick | 42cpaid | -78.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff0…46e3backed Yes | 72c | 10,416$7,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,916.48 | 54 | 55.6%30 W · 24 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b74…a4f4backed Yes | 28c | 4,622$1,276 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,345.48 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.14per pick | 20cpaid | +81.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4aef…9337backed No | 73c | 4,000$2,930 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,929.98 | 247 | 42.5%105 W · 142 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x651f…c190backed Yes | 26c | 2,389$621 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,768.16 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.24per pick | 26cpaid | +63.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a64…4430backed Yes | 60c | 2,290$1,384 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$905.59 | 226 | 47.3%107 W · 119 L | +12.7wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0269…cb2dbacked No | 71c | 2,059$1,463 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,463.13 | 170 | 53.5%91 W · 79 L | +7.7wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6761…a94fbacked No | 73c | 1,597$1,166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,165.61 | 90 | 38.9%35 W · 55 L | -5.7wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4337…8882backed No | 72c | 1,524$1,097 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,097.11 | 138 | 43.5%60 W · 78 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50ef…3abdbacked Yes | 29c | 689.66$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$489.66 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x15df…9465backed No | 29c | 686.21$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -3.0wins | -0.18per pick | 47cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x306b…3ec5backed Yes | 74c | 600$445 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.2 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc9f…905bbacked No | 73c | 244.85$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.74 | 98 | 40.8%40 W · 58 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xddc3…a171backed No | 28c | 178.57$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 35 | 31.4%11 W · 24 L | -2.4wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca95…fc40backed Yes | 25c | 140.47$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.35 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7adc…7603backed No | 75c | 133.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.17per pick | 60cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a9c…b949backed Yes | 27c | 121.43$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.43 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed No | 73c | 100$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73 | 244 | 55.7%136 W · 108 L | -7.9wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1266…cd8cbacked No | 76c | 99.98$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.99 | 97 | 52.6%51 W · 46 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c46…be29backed Yes | 26c | 89$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.47 | 131 | 39.7%52 W · 79 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc1c4…bbfbbacked Yes | 24c | 79.15$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.15 | 49 | 44.9%22 W · 27 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x975e…3b74backed Yes | 28c | 71.43$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.43 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.72per pick | 28cpaid | +257.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5019…7930backed No | 75c | 66.67$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.5wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x108c…f99bbacked No | 75c | 40$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.4wins | -0.71per pick | 71cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d7…25e9backed Yes | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 93 | 50.5%47 W · 46 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Champions League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Sporting CP beat Manchester City?this page
- Will Manchester City beat Sporting CP?No won
- Will the match between Sporting CP and Manchester City end in a draw?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.