College Football · resolved market
Spread: Air Force (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x673b828b65d81bcaa4fb7920229902fd545cfd5462851d48cc8980b477e23832
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Air Forceof Air Force, Colorado State
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- College Footballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,050
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,060
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,050 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in College Football is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in College Football | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd38b…5029backed Air Force | 52c | 16,313$8,483 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,830.24 | 327 | 45.6%149 W · 178 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Colorado State | 48c | 15,191$7,291 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,290.74 | 588 | 50.2%295 W · 293 L | +23.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Colorado State | 48c | 937$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$449.76 | 485 | 46.8%227 W · 258 L | -2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfdf…8e02backed Colorado State | 48c | 495.19$238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$237.69 | 68 | 35.3%24 W · 44 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Air Force | 51c | 475.43$242 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$232.96 | 935 | 48.4%453 W · 482 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Air Force | 52c | 367$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.15 | 524 | 49.4%259 W · 265 L | -2.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf9fe…366bbacked Air Force | 52c | 300$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144 | 157 | 51%80 W · 77 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Colorado State | 48c | 250$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 1,090 | 41.7%455 W · 635 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a8a…b155backed Colorado State | 49c | 153.06$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 56 | 41.1%23 W · 33 L | -3.6wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -17%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e77…4505backed Air Force | 52c | 145$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.6 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Colorado State | 48c | 120$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.6 | 542 | 43.2%234 W · 308 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6239…c24fbacked Colorado State | 50c | 106.6$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.3 | 494 | 43.7%216 W · 278 L | -9.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd45…59b2backed Colorado State | 48c | 100.98$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.47 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -19%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe50b…c2a8backed Colorado State | 48c | 100$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 140 | 55.7%78 W · 62 L | +6.4wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4bdf…9652backed Colorado State | 49c | 76$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.24 | 117 | 52.1%61 W · 56 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c24…8c06backed Colorado State | 49c | 73.2$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.87 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf782…6849backed Colorado State | 48c | 66.44$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.89 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc89d…5909backed Air Force | 52c | 63$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.24 | 39 | 48.7%19 W · 20 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x681d…4cbfbacked Colorado State | 49c | 51.02$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 103 | 42.7%44 W · 59 L | -6.5wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7681…ac03backed Colorado State | 49c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 33 | 30.3%10 W · 23 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0974…003dbacked Air Force | 53c | 40.78$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.32 | 268 | 46.3%124 W · 144 L | +7.2wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d85…2560backed Colorado State | 49c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 63 | 38.1%24 W · 39 L | -3.3wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x698b…4426backed Air Force | 51c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.6 | 47 | 46.8%22 W · 25 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9930…2afcbacked Colorado State | 49c | 25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.15 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Colorado State | 48c | 24.4$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.71 | 659 | 45.2%298 W · 361 L | -13.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdaa9…bad5backed Air Force | 52c | 23.07$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.07 | 48 | 54.2%26 W · 22 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x097f…df92backed Colorado State | 49c | 22.45$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -1.7wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x434c…a1b7backed Colorado State | 49c | 22.45$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.14per pick | 59cpaid | +32.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in College Football and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Air Force (-2.5)this page
- Air Force vs. Colorado StateAir Force won
- Air Force vs. Colorado State: O/U 45.5Over won
- Air Force vs. Colorado State: O/U 46.5Over won
- Air Force vs. Colorado State: O/U 47.5Over won
- Air Force vs. Colorado State: O/U 49.5Over won
- Spread: Air Force (-3.5)Air Force won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.