CS2 · resolved market
Counter-Strike: WATERMELON vs Misa Esports (BO3) - Exort Series Main Stage
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x67636b8d52edc8e56a45701ecb21a7e429f330f02ad3f9bccbe09dcc0e656838
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- WATERMELONof WATERMELON, Misa Esports
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,826
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,205
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,826 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked WATERMELON | 65c | 1,585$1,027 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$557.85 | 2,326 | 55.7%1,296 W · 1,030 L | +44.8wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d94…017dbacked Misa Esports | 42c | 1,109$470 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$469.56 | 2,221 | 41.3%917 W · 1,304 L | -22.6wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f81…5410backed Misa Esports | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 25 | 4%1 W · 24 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 1cpaid | +300%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd68e…8048backed WATERMELON | 79c | 893.68$703 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.17 | 42 | 73.8%31 W · 11 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked WATERMELON | 54c | 815.08$441 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$373.73 | 3,257 | 50.3%1,638 W · 1,619 L | +98.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1df4…0540backed Misa Esports | 50c | 810.84$402 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$401.92 | 79 | 58.2%46 W · 33 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e64…d421backed Misa Esports | 54c | 573.37$309 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$309.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf70f…3c97backed WATERMELON | 58c | 517.24$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$217.24 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6b5…9e0dbacked WATERMELON | 52c | 499.99$259 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$241 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5525…902cbacked Misa Esports | 11c | 363.64$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d9e…e0e3backed Misa Esports | 42c | 320.31$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.28 | 388 | 44.6%173 W · 215 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3eb6…2abbbacked Misa Esports | 4c | 300$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.46per pick | 4cpaid | +806.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5633…29e8backed Misa Esports | 43c | 232.56$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -4.2wins | -0.35per pick | 52cpaid | -74.3%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xd295…0fe6backed WATERMELON | 48c | 208.33$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.33 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8dde…b1aebacked Misa Esports | 19c | 204.21$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.41 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.9wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc85f…15f8backed WATERMELON | 69c | 179.99$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.51 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -41.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f35…514fbacked WATERMELON | 61c | 163.93$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.93 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.27per pick | 60cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf332…3c89backed Misa Esports | 57c | 163.16$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8f…3782backed Misa Esports | 34c | 157.52$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.85 | 291 | 28.5%83 W · 208 L | -30.2wins | -0.10per pick | 39cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xda1e…f6a4backed Misa Esports | 25c | 119.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa772…a28dbacked Misa Esports | 50c | 117$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.5 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2cc1…3e21backed Misa Esports | 21c | 111.82$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.43 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c21…c02bbacked Misa Esports | 25c | 110.72$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.48 | 117 | 34.2%40 W · 77 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1867…540bbacked WATERMELON | 43c | 102.79$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.09 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe64b…eeefbacked Misa Esports | 21c | 95.24$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74e2…89a5backed WATERMELON | 61c | 90.93$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.67 | 37 | 62.2%23 W · 14 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6fcd…42f2backed WATERMELON | 70c | 87.43$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.32 | 635 | 41.1%261 W · 374 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc995…3053backed Misa Esports | 23c | 86.96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa0a…8d66backed Misa Esports | 47c | 64.36$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 53cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb83d…3560backed WATERMELON | 62c | 50.81$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.31 | 34 | 76.5%26 W · 8 L | +4.7wins | +0.14per pick | 63cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x11cb…b931backed Misa Esports | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +1.8wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3aca…d156backed Misa Esports | 37c | 49.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.27 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3d4…6297backed Misa Esports | 23c | 49.33$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.49 | 202 | 43.6%88 W · 114 L | -8.1wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x42ae…ebcbbacked WATERMELON | 69c | 48.12$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.92 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +62.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Misa Esports | 28c | 47.4$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.04 | 698 | 63%440 W · 258 L | +65.3wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x34cd…3803backed WATERMELON | 46c | 44.73$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.21 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | -2.1wins | -0.08per pick | 35cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e9a…becbbacked WATERMELON | 67c | 43.82$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.49 | 42 | 54.8%23 W · 19 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb5…d35fbacked WATERMELON | 80c | 42.61$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.52 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0250…278ebacked WATERMELON | 61c | 40$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.71 | 15 | 80%12 W · 3 L | +1.9wins | +0.12per pick | 68cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8c76…477abacked WATERMELON | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 156 | 48.1%75 W · 81 L | +5.6wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2db3…667abacked WATERMELON | 60c | 39.55$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.82 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -3.0wins | -0.17per pick | 61cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb08b…1518backed Misa Esports | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2bc5…a45bbacked Misa Esports | 52c | 38.3$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.9wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1769…94efbacked WATERMELON | 55c | 38$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.96 | 916 | 48.9%448 W · 468 L | +4.4wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0133…64bcbacked WATERMELON | 58c | 37.82$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.87 | 32 | 65.6%21 W · 11 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x785f…e3d9backed Misa Esports | 34c | 29.74$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.07 | 69 | 49.3%34 W · 35 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9a2…b586backed WATERMELON | 68c | 29.41$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.41 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe9ed…9790backed WATERMELON | 70c | 28.57$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.57 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x418d…baf6backed WATERMELON | 73c | 27.4$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a11…de7cbacked WATERMELON | 76c | 26.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.36 | 30 | 73.3%22 W · 8 L | +2.3wins | +0.08per pick | 66cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x655b…ed37backed WATERMELON | 80c | 21.25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.25 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fbc…62a3backed WATERMELON | 70c | 20.57$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.17 | 244 | 57%139 W · 105 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2cc4…635ebacked Misa Esports | 55c | 18.85$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.37 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa399…4dcebacked WATERMELON | 68c | 16.74$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.36 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9a58…149dbacked WATERMELON | 79c | 13.18$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.82 | 76 | 25%19 W · 57 L | -6.0wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -56.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.