Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: summer bear vs Spirit Academy - Game 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x679ed6fb75480afc6cdab1ce57656f0ae13a78706a790924d665e3abbc5f519a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- summer bearof summer bear, Spirit Academy
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,444
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,485
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,444 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3413…8ff2backed summer bear | 54c | 5,428$2,926 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,502.09 | 476 | 46.4%221 W · 255 L | +27.2wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Spirit Academy | 46c | 1,496$688 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$688.16 | 1,901 | 47.6%905 W · 996 L | +4.6wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd22a…2a00backed Spirit Academy | 46c | 1,446$665 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$665.19 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfab…f067backed Spirit Academy | 42c | 1,124$468 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$467.83 | 480 | 57.1%274 W · 206 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Spirit Academy | 46c | 723.46$333 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$332.79 | 2,378 | 47.2%1,123 W · 1,255 L | +15.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb55…51ddbacked Spirit Academy | 10c | 617.8$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.18 | 359 | 60.4%217 W · 142 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x14f3…0796backed Spirit Academy | 46c | 587.22$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270.12 | 340 | 41.2%140 W · 200 L | -10.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -15%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd055…28d0backed Spirit Academy | 40c | 493.05$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.22 | 265 | 50.6%134 W · 131 L | +12.0wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0c67…d062backed summer bear | 60c | 493.05$296 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.22 | 1,137 | 42.3%481 W · 656 L | -27.5wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x31a4…7afcbacked Spirit Academy | 46c | 409.98$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.6 | 953 | 42.2%402 W · 551 L | -20.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe893…afaebacked Spirit Academy | 46c | 373.32$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.73 | 44 | 52.3%23 W · 21 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb67…fd46backed summer bear | 54c | 370$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.2 | 95 | 33.7%32 W · 63 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf66e…14b7backed Spirit Academy | 48c | 294$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.14 | 174 | 43.1%75 W · 99 L | -8.2wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb55b…c5b4backed summer bear | 54c | 277.98$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.87 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fc…b24ebacked Spirit Academy | 46c | 250$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115 | 404 | 42.3%171 W · 233 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3d…51b8backed Spirit Academy | 43c | 184.88$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79 | 64 | 51.6%33 W · 31 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e3c…08babacked summer bear | 77c | 166.55$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.34 | 1,702 | 41.2%701 W · 1,001 L | -44.0wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…165bbacked Spirit Academy | 43c | 163.95$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.5 | 1,275 | 33.5%427 W · 848 L | -15.6wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x130b…a733backed summer bear | 56c | 149.82$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.92 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.18per pick | 57cpaid | +38.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed Spirit Academy | 31c | 149.12$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.77 | 2,828 | 43.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L | -39.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x904e…0becbacked Spirit Academy | 29c | 116.36$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.3 | 1,458 | 48.5%707 W · 751 L | +27.0wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x505f…645ebacked summer bear | 78c | 112.99$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.76 | 1,280 | 45%576 W · 704 L | -12.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -15%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x483f…3683backed summer bear | 60c | 90$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +64%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x349e…867bbacked Spirit Academy | 46c | 88.5$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.71 | 153 | 42.5%65 W · 88 L | -8.5wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdc89…095cbacked Spirit Academy | 47c | 84$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.06 | 38 | 52.6%20 W · 18 L | +3.0wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8811…627cbacked summer bear | 67c | 74$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.52 | 79 | 64.6%51 W · 28 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4787…db20backed Spirit Academy | 46c | 49.85$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.93 | 39 | 64.1%25 W · 14 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b90…08e7backed summer bear | 55c | 40.11$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.05 | 382 | 44.5%170 W · 212 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc37d…e586backed summer bear | 55c | 33.69$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.16 | 387 | 59.4%230 W · 157 L | +26.6wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x08fa…f1e0backed summer bear | 58c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 813 | 45.1%367 W · 446 L | -26.7wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -20%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: summer bear vs Spirit Academy - Game 1 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: summer bear vs Spirit Academy (BO3) - European Pro League Playoffssummer bear won
- Dota 2: summer bear vs Spirit Academy - Game 2 Winnersummer bear won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.