Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: summer bear vs Spirit Academy - Game 2 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7b1da003acb9c390a512e2fd6f136da8a6b484d687f6ed3774bee072a434ab07
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- summer bearof summer bear, Spirit Academy
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $34,031
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $39,173
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $34,031 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 66 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4e3c…d370backed Spirit Academy | 59c | 4,222$2,501 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,501.13 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 63cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…165bbacked summer bear | 44c | 3,844$1,697 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,146.76 | 1,275 | 33.5%427 W · 848 L | -15.6wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb55…51ddbacked Spirit Academy | 61c | 2,687$1,626 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,625.75 | 359 | 60.4%217 W · 142 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x703b…e371backed summer bear | 33c | 2,600$859 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,740.98 | 515 | 44.9%231 W · 284 L | +40.9wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ce…a57abacked summer bear | 61c | 2,373$1,457 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$916.31 | 1,202 | 59.3%713 W · 489 L | +64.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0890…0646backed Spirit Academy | 50c | 2,200$1,110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,109.99 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.23per pick | 48cpaid | -56%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x505f…645ebacked Spirit Academy | 47c | 1,796$840 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$840.25 | 1,280 | 45%576 W · 704 L | -12.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -15%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7d3…698bbacked summer bear | 42c | 1,150$481 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$669.05 | 480 | 53.1%255 W · 225 L | +25.4wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6e44…21bcbacked Spirit Academy | 48c | 1,040$503 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$503 | 798 | 59%471 W · 327 L | +16.1wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6eac…ed37backed Spirit Academy | 49c | 1,036$506 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$506.12 | 574 | 49%281 W · 293 L | +33.5wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x31a4…7afcbacked Spirit Academy | 42c | 988$411 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$410.73 | 953 | 42.2%402 W · 551 L | -20.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc746…3943backed summer bear | 34c | 861.76$293 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$568.76 | 64 | 40.6%26 W · 38 L | -5.5wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0c67…d062backed Spirit Academy | 56c | 860.58$479 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$479.44 | 1,137 | 42.3%481 W · 656 L | -27.5wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfab…f067backed Spirit Academy | 56c | 809.2$451 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450.88 | 480 | 57.1%274 W · 206 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x880d…39bcbacked summer bear | 51c | 800$405 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$395.1 | 327 | 56.9%186 W · 141 L | +8.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked summer bear | 50c | 724.18$363 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$361.67 | 2,378 | 47.2%1,123 W · 1,255 L | +15.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1fe…e21fbacked summer bear | 75c | 599.6$450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.9 | 81 | 53.1%43 W · 38 L | +3.3wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e19…d2b0backed summer bear | 80c | 542.24$434 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.45 | 125 | 47.2%59 W · 66 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd22a…2a00backed summer bear | 34c | 505.86$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$333.87 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x904e…0becbacked summer bear | 49c | 377.92$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.77 | 1,458 | 48.5%707 W · 751 L | +27.0wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x130b…a733backed summer bear | 53c | 375$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.12 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.18per pick | 57cpaid | +38.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x31cb…2442backed summer bear | 34c | 351$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$231.76 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3d…51b8backed summer bear | 43c | 350$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201 | 64 | 51.6%33 W · 31 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ade…fb15backed summer bear | 65c | 340.17$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.59 | 64 | 42.2%27 W · 37 L | -4.4wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xccec…1dfcbacked summer bear | 54c | 336.39$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.74 | 84 | 47.6%40 W · 44 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d44…49e6backed summer bear | 63c | 308.3$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.7 | 721 | 54%389 W · 332 L | -8.8wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed summer bear | 42c | 293.8$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.06 | 2,828 | 43.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L | -39.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked summer bear | 50c | 241.36$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.71 | 1,901 | 47.6%905 W · 996 L | +4.6wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec8c…3bcdbacked Spirit Academy | 21c | 240$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.4 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77f2…eec6backed Spirit Academy | 45c | 220.31$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 554 | 57.8%320 W · 234 L | +12.3wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e3c…08babacked Spirit Academy | 50c | 210.11$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.7 | 1,702 | 41.2%701 W · 1,001 L | -44.0wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc0f1…8680backed Spirit Academy | 54c | 200$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 280 | 44.3%124 W · 156 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6d3…bab9backed summer bear | 36c | 199.99$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.79 | 70 | 41.4%29 W · 41 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Spirit Academy | 39c | 182.04$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.14 | 785 | 16.6%130 W · 655 L | -135.4wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x8c8b…7a07backed Spirit Academy | 64c | 180$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116 | 48 | 58.3%28 W · 20 L | +3.7wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9688…fd45backed summer bear | 51c | 180$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.2 | 241 | 38.6%93 W · 148 L | -18.0wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xddbd…bcb5backed summer bear | 33c | 172.57$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.03 | 140 | 30.7%43 W · 97 L | -5.2wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec61…f8a1backed Spirit Academy | 31c | 171.32$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.43 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf120…ce3cbacked summer bear | 48c | 163.96$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.96 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ac…e2a8backed summer bear | 34c | 149.26$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.51 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3066…693abacked Spirit Academy | 51c | 137.25$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 546 | 48.5%265 W · 281 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc89…095cbacked summer bear | 54c | 123.7$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.83 | 38 | 52.6%20 W · 18 L | +3.0wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9d16…e42bbacked Spirit Academy | 64c | 121.4$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.5 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8811…627cbacked summer bear | 52c | 115$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.7 | 79 | 64.6%51 W · 28 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac06…f93dbacked summer bear | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | +1.9wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5ec9…1873backed summer bear | 35c | 100$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65 | 198 | 39.4%78 W · 120 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf66e…14b7backed summer bear | 51c | 94$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.43 | 174 | 43.1%75 W · 99 L | -8.2wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x83b3…c2d7backed summer bear | 56c | 89.13$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.13 | 45 | 66.7%30 W · 15 L | +4.6wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x08fa…f1e0backed Spirit Academy | 45c | 82.96$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.53 | 813 | 45.1%367 W · 446 L | -26.7wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -20%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x588d…3f41backed summer bear | 40c | 80$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 285 | 44.9%128 W · 157 L | -7.9wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x14c8…c192backed summer bear | 39c | 75$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.9 | 80 | 42.5%34 W · 46 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x050e…d92fbacked Spirit Academy | 68c | 73.53$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 36 | 58.3%21 W · 15 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb91c…ed66backed summer bear | 32c | 68.64$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.42 | 194 | 49%95 W · 99 L | +11.8wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0a83…0be8backed Spirit Academy | 60c | 66.3$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.02 | 55 | 45.5%25 W · 30 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cf5…6440backed summer bear | 45c | 60$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc7d…8895backed summer bear | 50c | 60$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 282 | 52.5%148 W · 134 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1dcb…9f08backed summer bear | 28c | 53.57$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.57 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 24cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x14f3…0796backed summer bear | 56c | 44.48$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.48 | 340 | 41.2%140 W · 200 L | -10.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -15%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc37d…e586backed Spirit Academy | 43c | 43.77$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.82 | 387 | 59.4%230 W · 157 L | +26.6wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6d28…ad7cbacked Spirit Academy | 50c | 40.23$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.08 | 39 | 20.5%8 W · 31 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9991…36b8backed summer bear | 45c | 36.22$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.02 | 96 | 58.3%56 W · 40 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77de…e67abacked summer bear | 47c | 29.26$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.39 | 148 | 48%71 W · 77 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad22…014abacked summer bear | 60c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 473 | 58.6%277 W · 196 L | +25.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x69fa…e259backed summer bear | 50c | 21.66$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.83 | 282 | 52.1%147 W · 135 L | -6.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12bc…bf2fbacked Spirit Academy | 72c | 18.06$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 178 | 53.4%95 W · 83 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8569…2267backed Spirit Academy | 71c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.65 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.09per pick | 67cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: summer bear vs Spirit Academy - Game 2 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: summer bear vs Spirit Academy (BO3) - European Pro League Playoffssummer bear won
- Dota 2: summer bear vs Spirit Academy - Game 1 Winnersummer bear won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.