Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: summer bear vs Spirit Academy (BO3) - European Pro League Playoffs
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6a1c09d5d2a026b6baa83f4279f1aa2c962db13c57e6c891650cf90a7cd4d1f5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- summer bearof summer bear, Spirit Academy
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,105
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,236
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,105 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x824b…8386backed Spirit Academy | 40c | 1,217$490 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$490 | 158 | 48.1%76 W · 82 L | -13.8wins | -0.09per pick | 57cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed Spirit Academy | 30c | 770.46$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229.69 | 2,828 | 43.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L | -39.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb877…4601backed summer bear | 67c | 705$474 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230.72 | 414 | 55.6%230 W · 184 L | +41.4wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8811…627cbacked summer bear | 65c | 375.91$243 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.96 | 79 | 64.6%51 W · 28 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x904e…0becbacked summer bear | 74c | 351.56$259 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.4 | 1,458 | 48.5%707 W · 751 L | +27.0wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf20b…e27dbacked summer bear | 54c | 299.99$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.83 | 117 | 46.2%54 W · 63 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x597d…b97dbacked Spirit Academy | 20c | 197.33$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 207 | 38.6%80 W · 127 L | -4.1wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe564…221abacked Spirit Academy | 21c | 186.09$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 93 | 22.6%21 W · 72 L | -7.1wins | -0.08per pick | 30cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xad2c…4eecbacked Spirit Academy | 46c | 159.37$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.26 | 134 | 35.8%48 W · 86 L | -9.5wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed summer bear | 52c | 134.61$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.34 | 713 | 42.5%303 W · 410 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Spirit Academy | 25c | 116.81$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.2 | 785 | 16.6%130 W · 655 L | -135.4wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x7243…942abacked Spirit Academy | 35c | 100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 138 | 50%69 W · 69 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4572…47e7backed summer bear | 57c | 100$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43 | 408 | 44.1%180 W · 228 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked Spirit Academy | 47c | 99.98$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.99 | 264 | 45.1%119 W · 145 L | -4.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5539…19f8backed summer bear | 63c | 79.79$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.79 | 56 | 62.5%35 W · 21 L | +5.4wins | +0.10per pick | 53cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4869…b7abbacked Spirit Academy | 18c | 75$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac06…f93dbacked summer bear | 69c | 72.46$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.46 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | +1.9wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3556…3fb4backed summer bear | 53c | 58.28$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.61 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.24per pick | 56cpaid | +69.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x505f…645ebacked Spirit Academy | 37c | 52.87$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.56 | 1,280 | 45%576 W · 704 L | -12.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -15%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab96…989fbacked summer bear | 53c | 50.37$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.67 | 46 | 34.8%16 W · 30 L | -8.2wins | -0.18per pick | 53cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x0a83…0be8backed Spirit Academy | 29c | 49.84$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.49 | 55 | 45.5%25 W · 30 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e99…2229backed summer bear | 60c | 33.38$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.38 | 87 | 36.8%32 W · 55 L | -6.5wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x83b3…c2d7backed summer bear | 60c | 33.08$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.08 | 45 | 66.7%30 W · 15 L | +4.6wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9991…36b8backed summer bear | 70c | 29.83$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.95 | 96 | 58.3%56 W · 40 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2578…bbb7backed Spirit Academy | 47c | 21.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.23per pick | 39cpaid | -51%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x08fa…f1e0backed summer bear | 80c | 18.77$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.75 | 813 | 45.1%367 W · 446 L | -26.7wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -20%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f2c…d0dfbacked summer bear | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: summer bear vs Spirit Academy (BO3) - European Pro League Playoffsthis page
- Dota 2: summer bear vs Spirit Academy - Game 1 Winnersummer bear won
- Dota 2: summer bear vs Spirit Academy - Game 2 Winnersummer bear won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.