Europa Conference League · resolved market
Will Motherwell FC win on 2026-07-30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x684047e1d5ab117de81da6840f9e4a7fad18ae4115d3b8459d8ecc094a699896
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,179
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,990
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,179 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Yes | 62c | 2,861$1,762 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,099.43 | 2,333 | 41.7%972 W · 1,361 L | +25.5wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ad5…62ffbacked No | 35c | 1,742$618 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$618.33 | 314 | 30.3%95 W · 219 L | -15.9wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x70a6…a2ebbacked Yes | 60c | 1,250$750 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ef…2864backed No | 39c | 1,231$480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$479.97 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked No | 38c | 789$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.82 | 880 | 48.2%424 W · 456 L | +17.9wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed No | 38c | 789$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.82 | 1,022 | 47.5%485 W · 537 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed No | 39c | 768.99$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.91 | 1,316 | 50.8%668 W · 648 L | +33.2wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 29c | 668.28$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.44 | 2,990 | 42.5%1,270 W · 1,720 L | +9.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 66c | 646.97$426 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$221.11 | 3,726 | 47%1,750 W · 1,976 L | +20.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5234…c3febacked Yes | 61c | 433.41$264 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.03 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -18%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7203…795abacked Yes | 59c | 416.8$245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.87 | 76 | 77.6%59 W · 17 L | +13.5wins | +0.18per pick | 60cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x587b…2622backed Yes | 73c | 405$295 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.15 | 136 | 66.2%90 W · 46 L | +12.2wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xaaca…f5d5backed No | 40c | 380$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152 | 174 | 43.1%75 W · 99 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Yes | 61c | 353.3$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.59 | 1,039 | 50%520 W · 519 L | +26.5wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked No | 39c | 335.8$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.88 | 694 | 48.8%339 W · 355 L | +18.5wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd93…56c0backed Yes | 47c | 187.31$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.27 | 116 | 74.1%86 W · 30 L | +18.9wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked No | 38c | 150$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 778 | 55%428 W · 350 L | +23.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Yes | 71c | 119.68$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.71 | 795 | 32.2%256 W · 539 L | -16.9wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Yes | 61c | 113$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.07 | 1,573 | 55.7%876 W · 697 L | +25.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f2…8c8dbacked Yes | 69c | 100$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 158 | 28.5%45 W · 113 L | -18.5wins | -0.12per pick | 40cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xecae…c544backed Yes | 71c | 99$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.81 | 64 | 59.4%38 W · 26 L | +3.1wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3d1…de26backed Yes | 61c | 98.36$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.36 | 53 | 56.6%30 W · 23 L | +2.7wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8859…89d6backed Yes | 61c | 81.97$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.97 | 47 | 63.8%30 W · 17 L | +2.6wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd96…11a3backed Yes | 62c | 80.7$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.7 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed No | 39c | 79.9$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.16 | 793 | 54.2%430 W · 363 L | +17.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4bf…60f8backed No | 39c | 76.6$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.87 | 393 | 57.5%226 W · 167 L | +17.0wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 61c | 63.98$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.95 | 1,114 | 35.8%399 W · 715 L | -13.0wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec1e…0d9cbacked Yes | 61c | 63.61$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.03 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +2.2wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x99f0…9495backed Yes | 62c | 62.87$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.14 | 381 | 44.1%168 W · 213 L | +12.4wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca9…424abacked Yes | 68c | 56.86$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.35 | 389 | 52.7%205 W · 184 L | -5.2wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed No | 38c | 39.82$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.13 | 555 | 45.8%254 W · 301 L | -12.1wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Yes | 80c | 36$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 359 | 44.8%161 W · 198 L | -7.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2568…ef92backed Yes | 60c | 35$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.9 | 108 | 63.9%69 W · 39 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5cc8…a0e4backed No | 40c | 27.91$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.05 | 83 | 66.3%55 W · 28 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d67…3667backed No | 41c | 25.06$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.3 | 318 | 56%178 W · 140 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb239…80b4backed No | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -1.8wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed Yes | 64c | 23.89$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.57 | 852 | 60.9%519 W · 333 L | +29.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7127…c7a2backed Yes | 70c | 21.25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 69cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Yes | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.65 | 270 | 39.3%106 W · 164 L | -7.4wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa1a7…ace4backed Yes | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 170 | 59.4%101 W · 69 L | +8.4wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x03dc…64fdbacked Yes | 61c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 57 | 66.7%38 W · 19 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9028…8608backed Yes | 66c | 19.3$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.58 | 580 | 61.9%359 W · 221 L | +22.5wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Motherwell FC win on 2026-07-30?this page
- Will HB vs. Motherwell FC end in a draw?No won
- Will HB win on 2026-07-30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.