Serie A · resolved market
Will Inter win on 2025-10-04?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x684a9316720b526059f68278eb61a19a5da444234bd49b05bf2625282992815a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Serie Aevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $181,778
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $201,060
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $181,778 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Serie A is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet's whole record in Serie A | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked No | 9c | 46,418$4,178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,177.62 | 175 | 43.4%76 W · 99 L | -6.1wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc3c3…eec8backed No | 19c | 30,000$5,700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,700 | 114 | 53.5%61 W · 53 L | +9.9wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf519…906bbacked No | 18c | 15,000$2,700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,699.98 | 212 | 58.5%124 W · 88 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe38e…c29dbacked No | 16c | 10,000$1,600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,600 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.17per pick | 62cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked No | 16c | 9,000$1,440 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,440 | 160 | 45%72 W · 88 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…4f20backed No | 21c | 8,928$1,896 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,895.88 | 253 | 39.5%100 W · 153 L | -12.6wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1bbc…f458backed No | 12c | 6,119$734 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$734.28 | 38 | 36.8%14 W · 24 L | -5.9wins | -0.16per pick | 52cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4dbe…af34backed No | 16c | 5,000$800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$800 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd724…b805backed No | 8c | 4,618$374 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$373.57 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.22per pick | 42cpaid | -65.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x90ba…63f3backed No | 18c | 2,050$368 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$368 | 135 | 17%23 W · 112 L | -5.0wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Yes | 80c | 1,662$1,323 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$338.52 | 447 | 53.5%239 W · 208 L | +17.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c4…7385backed No | 17c | 1,500$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255 | 79 | 45.6%36 W · 43 L | +5.1wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd470…783ebacked No | 19c | 1,460$277 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$277.4 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +1,085.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd267…9dc6backed No | 18c | 825$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.5 | 70 | 28.6%20 W · 50 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked No | 16c | 500$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 68 | 38.2%26 W · 42 L | -3.1wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed No | 4c | 498.69$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.95 | 246 | 57.3%141 W · 105 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1947…94bcbacked No | 17c | 441.18$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 52 | 59.6%31 W · 21 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 4c | 414.97$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.97 | 2,023 | 39.4%798 W · 1,225 L | -10.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -24%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe797…2b36backed No | 16c | 374.99$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.25 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +1.4wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d01…0ab1backed No | 16c | 300$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 125 | 40%50 W · 75 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3112…7dc7backed No | 17c | 300$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked No | 19c | 263.16$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 55 | 60%33 W · 22 L | +3.6wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc864…97dfbacked No | 17c | 200$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed No | 12c | 176.21$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.62 | 43 | 46.5%20 W · 23 L | -3.3wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe1c9…c452backed No | 9c | 174.86$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.86 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x45d1…7017backed No | 15c | 171.48$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.72 | 48 | 54.2%26 W · 22 L | +6.9wins | +0.14per pick | 40cpaid | +41.1%equal weight | 61+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x11d7…52e1backed No | 48c | 165.63$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.87 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | -5.4wins | -0.15per pick | 55cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x48e3…c148backed No | 17c | 107.05$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.2 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea9e…d3fbbacked No | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 86 | 20.9%18 W · 68 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb27b…5d6bbacked Yes | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c95…ebecbacked No | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d03…369abacked Yes | 79c | 87.8$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.44 | 31 | 71%22 W · 9 L | +4.9wins | +0.16per pick | 55cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf142…57e7backed No | 17c | 81.43$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.84 | 230 | 51.7%119 W · 111 L | +6.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed No | 18c | 56$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 272 | 26.8%73 W · 199 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Serie A and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Inter win on 2025-10-04?this page
- Will Inter vs. US Cremonese end in a draw?No won
- Will US Cremonese win on 2025-10-04?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
- The position was at least $10.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.