Champions League · resolved market
Will Aston Villa beat Celtic?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x685cfe5dab22704f3fc55bfd0cf891704fd4f781633edf64539e7ca42a31c611
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Champions Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $27,089
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $28,464
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,089 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Champions League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Champions League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x40e3…0787backed No | 21c | 6,152$1,304 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,304.16 | 92 | 44.6%41 W · 51 L | +5.9wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x99c2…ef35backed Yes | 75c | 4,890$3,657 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,233.86 | 74 | 60.8%45 W · 29 L | +6.5wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +37.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x71cd…912dbacked No | 23c | 4,000$920 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$920 | 132 | 32.6%43 W · 89 L | +12.1wins | +0.09per pick | 23cpaid | +172.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe626…2fe6backed Yes | 66c | 3,047$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,046.8 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.12per pick | 65cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked No | 35c | 2,548$900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$899.6 | 449 | 55.7%250 W · 199 L | +5.4wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12d6…dbbcbacked No | 34c | 2,435$823 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$823.48 | 123 | 59.3%73 W · 50 L | +12.4wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +16%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf699…07e1backed Yes | 63c | 1,435$904 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$531.43 | 204 | 62.3%127 W · 77 L | +19.1wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed No | 35c | 825.7$293 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$292.68 | 469 | 56.5%265 W · 204 L | +8.4wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfdf…8e02backed No | 35c | 660.09$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231.03 | 78 | 44.9%35 W · 43 L | +5.9wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe306…d100backed Yes | 65c | 650$423 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$227.5 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.24per pick | 43cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…d8acbacked No | 25c | 430$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.76 | 307 | 54.1%166 W · 141 L | +11.9wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0269…cb2dbacked No | 36c | 415.58$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.58 | 170 | 53.5%91 W · 79 L | +7.7wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Yes | 64c | 400$256 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144 | 186 | 50.5%94 W · 92 L | -14.4wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -12%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xccff…e845backed No | 35c | 400$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.9 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf519…906bbacked Yes | 65c | 390$254 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.5 | 149 | 53%79 W · 70 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ea5…2af9backed Yes | 66c | 364.39$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.39 | 49 | 69.4%34 W · 15 L | +3.4wins | +0.07per pick | 62cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9e87…8befbacked Yes | 67c | 328.36$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.36 | 61 | 70.5%43 W · 18 L | +5.1wins | +0.08per pick | 62cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5e4d…5105backed Yes | 55c | 290.44$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.7 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 43cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5179…2b29backed No | 34c | 240.93$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.52 | 383 | 56.7%217 W · 166 L | +11.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf641…7b6fbacked Yes | 78c | 188$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.36 | 174 | 66.1%115 W · 59 L | +11.8wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +11%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x931f…d15dbacked Yes | 64c | 187.5$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.5 | 55 | 67.3%37 W · 18 L | +3.0wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Yes | 70c | 161.43$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.33 | 368 | 51.1%188 W · 180 L | +15.7wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Yes | 63c | 150$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56 | 244 | 55.7%136 W · 108 L | -7.9wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x551c…a9c2backed Yes | 64c | 150$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7bbf…2760backed Yes | 66c | 150$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 37 | 37.8%14 W · 23 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6c9…bb9ebacked Yes | 64c | 137.82$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.54 | 41 | 43.9%18 W · 23 L | -4.7wins | -0.11per pick | 55cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfb79…c2c6backed No | 32c | 120.88$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.68 | 87 | 48.3%42 W · 45 L | -4.4wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc288…98dbbacked Yes | 68c | 117.94$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.74 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.18per pick | 52cpaid | -51.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x92be…d717backed Yes | 64c | 110.2$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.67 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1f…30e8backed No | 38c | 105.26$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3b7…520dbacked No | 38c | 100$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 107 | 43%46 W · 61 L | +5.2wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x93b4…2486backed Yes | 67c | 100$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -2.5wins | -0.20per pick | 50cpaid | -49.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4c6c…b6d7backed Yes | 54c | 70$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.2 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -2.4wins | -0.13per pick | 52cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5652…ff34backed No | 38c | 52.63$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 100 | 40%40 W · 60 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…2858backed No | 35c | 49.98$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.49 | 78 | 46.2%36 W · 42 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c82…6150backed No | 35c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 344 | 49.7%171 W · 173 L | -15.3wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc33…16e5backed No | 38c | 39.47$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.26per pick | 46cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e23…5a2cbacked Yes | 64c | 35$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed No | 32c | 35$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xde5d…cb08backed No | 34c | 33.75$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.48 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc161…7bb2backed Yes | 64c | 32.92$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.85 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 57cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe049…ccfcbacked Yes | 64c | 32.53$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.71 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedb3…b3febacked Yes | 66c | 32.49$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.04 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8c7…29ecbacked No | 36c | 31.25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1276…6d30backed Yes | 65c | 30.77$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.77 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9c0…4583backed Yes | 53c | 29.41$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.82 | 31 | 74.2%23 W · 8 L | +4.7wins | +0.15per pick | 59cpaid | +28.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4a6f…6b82backed Yes | 55c | 29.41$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.23 | 34 | 64.7%22 W · 12 L | +3.5wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3c87…70d5backed Yes | 53c | 29.17$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.71 | 135 | 34.8%47 W · 88 L | -10.9wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x33e8…5683backed Yes | 66c | 26.44$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.99 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26c3…e248backed Yes | 64c | 23.64$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.51 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +2.7wins | +0.22per pick | 45cpaid | +48.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x44c5…41c4backed Yes | 67c | 17.1$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.64 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +46%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5769…a5dabacked Yes | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 70cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc509…205abacked Yes | 66c | 15.27$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.19 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 57cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Champions League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Aston Villa beat Celtic?this page
- Will Celtic beat Aston Villa?No won
- Will the match between Aston Villa and Celtic end in a draw?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.