Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: RisingRage vs Estar Backs - Game 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x687d2e9b7dbd8f81064ce9ec02078871bf9a7d6ea31c45bfa08797006d44f4c7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Estar Backsof RisingRage, Estar Backs
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $43,303
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $58,783
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $43,303 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6a24…3845backed RisingRage | 2c | 13,500$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270 | 80 | 35%28 W · 52 L | +5.2wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x324c…93d9backed RisingRage | 2c | 7,500$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135 | 104 | 0%0 W · 104 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d24…20b3backed Estar Backs | 67c | 1,427$959 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$467.92 | 542 | 46.7%253 W · 289 L | -2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…165bbacked RisingRage | 25c | 1,004$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.87 | 1,275 | 33.5%427 W · 848 L | -15.6wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ec9…1873backed RisingRage | 7c | 785$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.55 | 198 | 39.4%78 W · 120 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x25c6…dcacbacked RisingRage | 40c | 599.99$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 106 | 53.8%57 W · 49 L | +4.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf34b…bcb3backed RisingRage | 35c | 580$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.8 | 583 | 56.8%331 W · 252 L | +28.7wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x08b8…e7dabacked RisingRage | 35c | 572$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.2 | 310 | 55.2%171 W · 139 L | +12.0wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe59f…0d08backed RisingRage | 8c | 513.08$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.18 | 211 | 55.5%117 W · 94 L | +17.3wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0c67…d062backed RisingRage | 41c | 492.4$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1,137 | 42.3%481 W · 656 L | -27.5wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6eac…e409backed Estar Backs | 59c | 465.95$275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.04 | 109 | 61.5%67 W · 42 L | +11.6wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1ae1…c891backed RisingRage | 39c | 285.49$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.24 | 335 | 49.9%167 W · 168 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f19…77e3backed RisingRage | 10c | 220$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +1.7wins | +0.15per pick | 30cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x969f…cbdcbacked Estar Backs | 61c | 173.93$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.18 | 149 | 43%64 W · 85 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x904e…0becbacked Estar Backs | 75c | 170.08$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.85 | 1,458 | 48.5%707 W · 751 L | +27.0wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x589a…8dc5backed Estar Backs | 60c | 159.54$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.34 | 204 | 42.2%86 W · 118 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x880d…39bcbacked Estar Backs | 65c | 148.73$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.06 | 327 | 56.9%186 W · 141 L | +8.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x83c8…3b6cbacked Estar Backs | 79c | 102.29$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.34 | 913 | 56.1%512 W · 401 L | +16.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f40…c8ffbacked RisingRage | 41c | 100$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.7 | 310 | 52.6%163 W · 147 L | +15.3wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbb8e…08c1backed RisingRage | 39c | 96$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.15 | 645 | 47.8%308 W · 337 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc7d…8895backed RisingRage | 35c | 57.93$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 282 | 52.5%148 W · 134 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Estar Backs | 64c | 49.29$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.83 | 785 | 16.6%130 W · 655 L | -135.4wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xa8d1…cb84backed Estar Backs | 60c | 33.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 56 | 48.2%27 W · 29 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e4c…c8c6backed RisingRage | 56c | 26.57$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 80 | 50%40 W · 40 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: RisingRage vs Estar Backs - Game 1 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: RisingRage vs Estar Backs (BO3) - The International South America Closed Qualifier PlayoffsEstar Backs won
- Dota 2: RisingRage vs Estar Backs - Game 2 WinnerEstar Backs won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.