Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: RisingRage vs Estar Backs - Game 2 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf405091df8d248ffe80d7a8679bb2e0976e5668aefcb618e01e69b41ac08fa2a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Estar Backsof RisingRage, Estar Backs
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,881
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,671
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,881 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6eac…e409backed Estar Backs | 59c | 3,927$2,306 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,620.42 | 109 | 61.5%67 W · 42 L | +11.6wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8430…3961backed RisingRage | 42c | 2,013$838 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$837.6 | 303 | 56.4%171 W · 132 L | +4.2wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe3f…0fcfbacked Estar Backs | 61c | 1,312$794 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$518.05 | 866 | 59.6%516 W · 350 L | -8.6wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d24…20b3backed RisingRage | 47c | 1,273$595 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$594.74 | 542 | 46.7%253 W · 289 L | -2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x958c…a328backed RisingRage | 40c | 1,160$464 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$464 | 283 | 47%133 W · 150 L | +10.9wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4eb3…6185backed RisingRage | 45c | 1,122$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -23%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x880d…39bcbacked Estar Backs | 63c | 1,088$683 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$404.72 | 327 | 56.9%186 W · 141 L | +8.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a24…3845backed RisingRage | 3c | 777.38$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.77 | 80 | 35%28 W · 52 L | +5.2wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5739…74a7backed Estar Backs | 51c | 766.72$388 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$378.58 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x703b…e371backed Estar Backs | 32c | 500$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$338 | 515 | 44.9%231 W · 284 L | +40.9wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…165bbacked RisingRage | 50c | 313.23$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.2 | 1,275 | 33.5%427 W · 848 L | -15.6wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3413…8ff2backed RisingRage | 32c | 285.76$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.44 | 476 | 46.4%221 W · 255 L | +27.2wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x589a…8dc5backed Estar Backs | 21c | 281$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$222.53 | 204 | 42.2%86 W · 118 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x969f…cbdcbacked Estar Backs | 20c | 241.64$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.82 | 149 | 43%64 W · 85 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf6a0…2212backed Estar Backs | 38c | 205.82$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.32 | 50 | 48%24 W · 26 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d16…e42bbacked Estar Backs | 59c | 166.54$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.28 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd154…9c74backed RisingRage | 41c | 150$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.5 | 168 | 39.9%67 W · 101 L | -9.1wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3066…693abacked RisingRage | 51c | 137.25$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 546 | 48.5%265 W · 281 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Estar Backs | 45c | 106.63$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.82 | 892 | 38.1%340 W · 552 L | -42.7wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed RisingRage | 41c | 103.56$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.46 | 915 | 53.3%488 W · 427 L | +48.0wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfa76…e588backed RisingRage | 72c | 100$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.5 | 22 | 77.3%17 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 73cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ae0…8661backed RisingRage | 42c | 83.89$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 159 | 40.9%65 W · 94 L | -9.4wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x904e…0becbacked Estar Backs | 69c | 82$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.42 | 1,458 | 48.5%707 W · 751 L | +27.0wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1863…6174backed Estar Backs | 65c | 80$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 304 | 60.2%183 W · 121 L | +10.2wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x91ac…5ff3backed Estar Backs | 50c | 67.78$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.79 | 213 | 44.1%94 W · 119 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x316f…795abacked RisingRage | 41c | 67$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.47 | 283 | 36.4%103 W · 180 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x90bb…531fbacked RisingRage | 41c | 67$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.47 | 43 | 37.2%16 W · 27 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99f7…1a59backed RisingRage | 41c | 67$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.47 | 253 | 51.4%130 W · 123 L | +23.3wins | +0.09per pick | 42cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9ca2…088ebacked RisingRage | 41c | 67$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.47 | 47 | 42.6%20 W · 27 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e99…2229backed RisingRage | 43c | 58.49$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 87 | 36.8%32 W · 55 L | -6.5wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5ec9…1873backed RisingRage | 62c | 56.77$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 198 | 39.4%78 W · 120 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe8c2…45b2backed RisingRage | 41c | 51.18$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.98 | 107 | 41.1%44 W · 63 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed RisingRage | 41c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 173 | 40.5%70 W · 103 L | +9.2wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd7d3…698bbacked Estar Backs | 64c | 44.65$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.07 | 480 | 53.1%255 W · 225 L | +25.4wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4270…6168backed RisingRage | 41c | 41.98$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.21 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6efa…a0a7backed Estar Backs | 59c | 40$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.4 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +1.9wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x26c2…0cdfbacked Estar Backs | 59c | 37.25$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.28 | 186 | 52.2%97 W · 89 L | +9.1wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x83c8…3b6cbacked Estar Backs | 59c | 36.89$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.05 | 913 | 56.1%512 W · 401 L | +16.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc7d…8895backed RisingRage | 52c | 28.85$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 282 | 52.5%148 W · 134 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6fbf…d227backed RisingRage | 41c | 26.95$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.05 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8b6f…aab3backed Estar Backs | 66c | 25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.5 | 426 | 60.1%256 W · 170 L | +19.0wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: RisingRage vs Estar Backs - Game 2 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: RisingRage vs Estar Backs (BO3) - The International South America Closed Qualifier PlayoffsEstar Backs won
- Dota 2: RisingRage vs Estar Backs - Game 1 WinnerEstar Backs won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.