Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: RisingRage vs Estar Backs (BO3) - The International South America Closed Qualifier Playoffs
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb24b15da4a6f44fef672a8745cfd9d67b0b4e143cbb51ef33db510c10a83b468
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Estar Backsof RisingRage, Estar Backs
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,988
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,573
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,988 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x969f…cbdcbacked RisingRage | 15c | 351.11$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.99 | 149 | 43%64 W · 85 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed RisingRage | 4c | 335$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 691 | 32.6%225 W · 466 L | -26.8wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x88fa…b50bbacked RisingRage | 21c | 199.98$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 62 | 37.1%23 W · 39 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x904e…0becbacked Estar Backs | 73c | 187.47$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.48 | 1,458 | 48.5%707 W · 751 L | +27.0wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x589a…8dc5backed RisingRage | 24c | 149.56$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.8 | 204 | 42.2%86 W · 118 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77f2…eec6backed Estar Backs | 69c | 144.5$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.5 | 554 | 57.8%320 W · 234 L | +12.3wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e99…2229backed RisingRage | 21c | 143.26$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 87 | 36.8%32 W · 55 L | -6.5wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed RisingRage | 21c | 137.32$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.39 | 785 | 16.6%130 W · 655 L | -135.4wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x5672…7312backed Estar Backs | 77c | 112.57$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.12 | 520 | 46.5%242 W · 278 L | +12.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Estar Backs | 80c | 99.38$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.88 | 935 | 46.4%434 W · 501 L | -15.7wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ca8…7e67backed RisingRage | 27c | 89.21$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.14 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +1.8wins | +0.09per pick | 33cpaid | +41.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x91aa…c94abacked RisingRage | 34c | 73.53$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbfab…f067backed Estar Backs | 74c | 67.57$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.57 | 480 | 57.1%274 W · 206 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2119…1e8fbacked Estar Backs | 78c | 46.71$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.28 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 76cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3413…8ff2backed RisingRage | 34c | 44.4$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.1 | 476 | 46.4%221 W · 255 L | +27.2wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x83c8…3b6cbacked RisingRage | 26c | 43.91$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.49 | 913 | 56.1%512 W · 401 L | +16.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b6f…aab3backed RisingRage | 31c | 35.7$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 426 | 60.1%256 W · 170 L | +19.0wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb8e…08c1backed Estar Backs | 79c | 34$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 645 | 47.8%308 W · 337 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5430…fbbbbacked RisingRage | 40c | 32.63$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | -3.0wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Estar Backs | 74c | 32$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.39 | 892 | 38.1%340 W · 552 L | -42.7wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4713…4d21backed Estar Backs | 77c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.9 | 1,120 | 36.1%404 W · 716 L | -39.4wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b86…5552backed Estar Backs | 70c | 24.35$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.31 | 49 | 57.1%28 W · 21 L | -5.9wins | -0.12per pick | 69cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Estar Backs | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.7 | 793 | 41.7%331 W · 462 L | -13.3wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: RisingRage vs Estar Backs (BO3) - The International South America Closed Qualifier Playoffsthis page
- Dota 2: RisingRage vs Estar Backs - Game 1 WinnerEstar Backs won
- Dota 2: RisingRage vs Estar Backs - Game 2 WinnerEstar Backs won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.