Premier League · resolved market
Norwich City FC vs. Stoke City FC: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x68a371dd6e2eec0535a7f4fc1069e2a07dadf898bb509fdeab584b128032e678
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,353
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,688
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,353 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Under | 40c | 2,092$839 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$839.42 | 2,661 | 45.5%1,210 W · 1,451 L | -11.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75dd…171dbacked Over | 77c | 1,935$1,485 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$449.02 | 48 | 81.3%39 W · 9 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 76cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x854d…deb0backed Over | 40c | 1,000$395 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$604.8 | 39 | 53.8%21 W · 18 L | +5.1wins | +0.13per pick | 41cpaid | +38.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6619…703ebacked Over | 76c | 660.34$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.34 | 321 | 64.5%207 W · 114 L | -9.1wins | -0.03per pick | 67cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x42b5…0dd9backed Under | 22c | 641.11$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.04 | 239 | 20.9%50 W · 189 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 54c | 566.39$305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$304.68 | 6,117 | 45.8%2,803 W · 3,314 L | -28.6wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3eff…ae12backed Under | 23c | 243.39$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.98 | 95 | 56.8%54 W · 41 L | +5.3wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3eb6…2abbbacked Under | 9c | 158.79$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.29 | 30 | 0%0 W · 30 L | -2.3wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4130…a35bbacked Under | 25c | 150$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.5 | 47 | 57.4%27 W · 20 L | +6.1wins | +0.13per pick | 45cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb81d…c6c0backed Under | 25c | 103$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.75 | 39 | 53.8%21 W · 18 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Under | 67c | 80$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.3 | 891 | 52.9%471 W · 420 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Under | 53c | 80$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.13 | 584 | 45.9%268 W · 316 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe3c…a835backed Over | 13c | 80$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.6 | 265 | 48.3%128 W · 137 L | +7.5wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Over | 75c | 65$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.25 | 201 | 50.2%101 W · 100 L | -6.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa49…949ebacked Under | 24c | 57$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.68 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f3a…9bdbbacked Over | 75c | 52$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 24 | 70.8%17 W · 7 L | +2.0wins | +0.08per pick | 63cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa48…9062backed Over | 75c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 32 | 56.3%18 W · 14 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x143d…5bc4backed Over | 75c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1313…866abacked Over | 75c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 65cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 46c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.29 | 4,744 | 41.8%1,983 W · 2,761 L | +28.2wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14c2…6070backed Over | 75c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b40…93f4backed Over | 75c | 22$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.5 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.13per pick | 57cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa2b5…694ebacked Over | 75c | 21$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.25 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5c…1f57backed Over | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | -2.0wins | -0.09per pick | 62cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7500…ae85backed Over | 75c | 19$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.75 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -2.5wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x711d…fe4bbacked Over | 76c | 19$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.56 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdee3…7b2ebacked Over | 76c | 18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.32 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Norwich City FC vs. Stoke City FC: O/U 1.5this page
- Norwich City FC vs. Stoke City FC: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Norwich City FC vs. Stoke City FC: O/U 2.5Under won
- Norwich City FC vs. Stoke City FC: O/U 3.5Under won
- Norwich City FC vs. Stoke City FC: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Norwich City FC (-1.5)Stoke City FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.