Asian League · resolved market
Beijing Guoan FC vs. Shanghai Shenhua FC: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x68b3defbe94ae0fa6e81e8f7dc442ed58bba079bad483ba1b3e6e2e6078726b8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Asian Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,063
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,429
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,063 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Asian League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Asian League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed Over | 25c | 1,267$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$319.52 | 105 | 22.9%24 W · 81 L | -7.4wins | -0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 77c | 1,240$953 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$287.27 | 5,946 | 46.1%2,743 W · 3,203 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2de6…e187backed Over | 19c | 586.42$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.18 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +2.1wins | +0.13per pick | 43cpaid | +101.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Over | 27c | 566.1$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.85 | 1,117 | 46.2%516 W · 601 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 13c | 506.97$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.24 | 2,522 | 42.3%1,067 W · 1,455 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Over | 26c | 434.38$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.8 | 225 | 55.1%124 W · 101 L | +10.4wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Over | 27c | 390.54$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.45 | 934 | 46.1%431 W · 503 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x20ad…a7c6backed Over | 21c | 351.59$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.3 | 194 | 36.6%71 W · 123 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66ca…6e5ebacked Under | 75c | 345$259 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.25 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Under | 73c | 192.98$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.1 | 117 | 42.7%50 W · 67 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9532…8315backed Over | 20c | 131.42$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.6 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10bd…cac5backed Over | 21c | 111.16$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.91 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Under | 73c | 106.34$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.71 | 267 | 49.4%132 W · 135 L | +7.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb4f…c738backed Under | 77c | 64.94$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.94 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 75cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Over | 25c | 63.07$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.77 | 1,970 | 54.4%1,071 W · 899 L | +32.9wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Over | 27c | 53.52$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.45 | 30 | 16.7%5 W · 25 L | -5.0wins | -0.17per pick | 33cpaid | -57.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdbe2…5981backed Under | 73c | 53.52$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.45 | 44 | 43.2%19 W · 25 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9310…5e55backed Over | 28c | 42.86$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 83 | 50.6%42 W · 41 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Over | 26c | 42.38$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.95 | 1,651 | 50.9%840 W · 811 L | +5.8wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e09…0901backed Over | 27c | 37.52$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.13 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Asian League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Beijing Guoan FC vs. Shanghai Shenhua FC: O/U 4.5this page
- Beijing Guoan FC vs. Shanghai Shenhua FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Beijing Guoan FC vs. Shanghai Shenhua FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Beijing Guoan FC vs. Shanghai Shenhua FC: O/U 2.5Under won
- Beijing Guoan FC vs. Shanghai Shenhua FC: O/U 3.5Under won
- Spread: Beijing Guoan FC (-1.5)Shanghai Shenhua FC won
- Spread: Beijing Guoan FC (-2.5)Shanghai Shenhua FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.