Asian League · resolved market
Beijing Guoan FC vs. Shanghai Shenhua FC: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x83682962bae744663f2af8f8705e3bab6dd378421c0091810733bd985726466a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Asian Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $44,061
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $52,888
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $44,061 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 74 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Asian League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Asian League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0b22…ddcabacked Under | 37c | 7,699$2,844 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,854.49 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +29.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 46c | 5,642$2,591 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,051.03 | 6,028 | 46.1%2,778 W · 3,250 L | +50.9wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7879…3653backed Over | 59c | 4,999$2,949 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,949.41 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 53c | 2,839$1,511 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,510.63 | 2,566 | 42.1%1,081 W · 1,485 L | +52.1wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8de5…e8bbbacked Under | 76c | 1,896$1,446 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$450.67 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed Over | 37c | 1,200$440 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$439.84 | 106 | 23.6%25 W · 81 L | -6.9wins | -0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3242…0e0bbacked Over | 52c | 1,049$545 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$545.48 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa72e…3db9backed Over | 49c | 950$465 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$465 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa5a9…45ffbacked Over | 51c | 863.14$440 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$440 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd092…342abacked Over | 50c | 780$390 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$390 | 52 | 50%26 W · 26 L | -5.3wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x00a0…bf76backed Over | 33c | 750$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$247.5 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.22per pick | 37cpaid | -71.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f37…281bbacked Over | 40c | 750$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 151 | 19.2%29 W · 122 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e5a…154cbacked Over | 52c | 688.77$358 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$358.16 | 72 | 55.6%40 W · 32 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 78c | 606.43$473 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.41 | 1,337 | 56.5%756 W · 581 L | +64.2wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3880…ab7dbacked Over | 52c | 573.53$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 114 | 58.8%67 W · 47 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd91a…211cbacked Over | 57c | 438.6$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 146 | 29.5%43 W · 103 L | -8.4wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe220…f862backed Under | 48c | 427$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$222.04 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 45c | 344.84$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154 | 1,357 | 45.5%617 W · 740 L | +14.5wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2de6…e187backed Under | 50c | 323.86$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.3 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +2.1wins | +0.13per pick | 43cpaid | +101.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5773…ac11backed Over | 63c | 300$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -3.0wins | -0.13per pick | 50cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdcc0…6872backed Over | 57c | 291.34$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.38 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad18…0b4fbacked Over | 53c | 287.2$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.12 | 38 | 36.8%14 W · 24 L | -3.0wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7e90…be2bbacked Under | 46c | 278.41$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.34 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85d8…3cbebacked Over | 36c | 277.78$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 174 | 40.2%70 W · 104 L | -12.3wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5179…2b29backed Over | 62c | 250$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155 | 121 | 47.9%58 W · 63 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9381…9ae2backed Over | 50c | 250$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9013…e7e0backed Under | 43c | 232.56$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.56 | 106 | 40.6%43 W · 63 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeef3…0547backed Under | 43c | 231.69$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.06 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d4a…e7cabacked Under | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | -2.7wins | -0.11per pick | 59cpaid | -19%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Under | 35c | 189.49$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.2 | 937 | 46%431 W · 506 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49a1…41cbbacked Over | 63c | 177$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.06 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3b43…fae9backed Over | 54c | 146.55$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.68 | 35 | 37.1%13 W · 22 L | -2.5wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Over | 34c | 135$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.36 | 438 | 26%114 W · 324 L | -34.2wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -39%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2aa3…9b44backed Over | 67c | 119.4$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.18per pick | 55cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x763a…49a9backed Over | 67c | 115.54$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.41 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb792…fa38backed Under | 47c | 106.38$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.38 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0870…1e49backed Over | 66c | 101$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.66 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.4wins | -0.71per pick | 71cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa54d…deb8backed Under | 61c | 100.74$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.53 | 33 | 57.6%19 W · 14 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa60b…c728backed Over | 62c | 100$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 112 | 38.4%43 W · 69 L | -11.8wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xefff…c0efbacked Under | 49c | 100$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.9wins | -0.13per pick | 56cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8a81…a86bbacked Over | 59c | 84.75$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 213 | 67.6%144 W · 69 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3b7a…3ce8backed Over | 59c | 84.35$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 47 | 59.6%28 W · 19 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 64cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f71…9a06backed Under | 49c | 81.63$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.63 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Under | 33c | 70.33$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.05 | 1,143 | 46.5%531 W · 612 L | -4.7wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x70fb…d507backed Under | 55c | 67.98$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.6 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +2.7wins | +0.30per pick | 59cpaid | +61.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd179…361ebacked Over | 30c | 66.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -1.4wins | -0.11per pick | 34cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x134c…eeefbacked Over | 46c | 65.78$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 127 | 42.5%54 W · 73 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14b0…8d0ebacked Over | 65c | 64.62$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe08c…e03cbacked Over | 53c | 62$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.86 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Over | 67c | 60$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.2 | 301 | 49.5%149 W · 152 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x051b…09d4backed Under | 34c | 56.58$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.58 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd4a…1104backed Over | 53c | 56$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.68 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa97e…7753backed Over | 62c | 50$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 61 | 52.5%32 W · 29 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1f…f5eabacked Over | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 64 | 31.3%20 W · 44 L | -4.1wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe48c…163abacked Over | 55c | 47.27$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 82 | 54.9%45 W · 37 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf15…bc03backed Over | 62c | 40.43$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.93 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8bf2…0f0dbacked Over | 65c | 40$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.12per pick | 58cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Under | 48c | 38.76$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.15 | 141 | 53.2%75 W · 66 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e2a…a58dbacked Over | 62c | 38.14$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.56 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x20ad…a7c6backed Over | 45c | 37.11$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.87 | 194 | 36.6%71 W · 123 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x380c…1099backed Over | 43c | 35.17$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 83 | 63.9%53 W · 30 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5c…d8e6backed Over | 64c | 34.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.35 | 59 | 49.2%29 W · 30 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x94b6…2be5backed Over | 63c | 31.75$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +33.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c67…e838backed Under | 34c | 30.56$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.17 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d11…a8e1backed Over | 47c | 29.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50e0…776ebacked Under | 46c | 26.6$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.24 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked Over | 62c | 26.53$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.45 | 106 | 50.9%54 W · 52 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed Under | 50c | 23.24$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.71 | 42 | 59.5%25 W · 17 L | +2.9wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa146…1d57backed Under | 67c | 21.36$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.05 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9409…5b36backed Under | 50c | 21.18$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.68 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +14%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8de7…61c0backed Over | 52c | 20.79$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.91 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.1wins | -0.26per pick | 51cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4a83…635bbacked Over | 62c | 20.62$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.83 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Over | 64c | 17.64$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.35 | 2,036 | 54.2%1,104 W · 932 L | +32.8wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x011c…f943backed Over | 67c | 15.55$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.35 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.30per pick | 50cpaid | -50%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Asian League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Beijing Guoan FC vs. Shanghai Shenhua FC: O/U 2.5this page
- Beijing Guoan FC vs. Shanghai Shenhua FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Beijing Guoan FC vs. Shanghai Shenhua FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Beijing Guoan FC vs. Shanghai Shenhua FC: O/U 3.5Under won
- Beijing Guoan FC vs. Shanghai Shenhua FC: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Beijing Guoan FC (-1.5)Shanghai Shenhua FC won
- Spread: Beijing Guoan FC (-2.5)Shanghai Shenhua FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.