NFL · resolved market
Spread: Saints (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x68f0239d2a461a9e13d68375dac8f46ba504bef22499b406fc25e9c4f406de7f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Falconsof Saints, Falcons
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $96,265
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $96,559
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $96,265 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcd36…a8acbacked Saints | 47c | 66,144$31,088 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31,087.56 | 66 | 45.5%30 W · 36 L | -4.4wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1117…3532backed Falcons | 53c | 40,000$21,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18,800 | 312 | 40.7%127 W · 185 L | -22.0wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Falcons | 53c | 30,535$16,184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14,351.41 | 865 | 47.9%414 W · 451 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3d6…34e3backed Saints | 48c | 14,257$6,843 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,843.43 | 48 | 37.5%18 W · 30 L | -3.9wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1d1a…0df6backed Falcons | 52c | 12,273$6,382 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,890.9 | 168 | 60.7%102 W · 66 L | +18.7wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f5…c669backed Falcons | 52c | 7,000$3,640 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,360 | 240 | 53.8%129 W · 111 L | +9.1wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda21…8646backed Saints | 47c | 3,989$1,880 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,879.74 | 41 | 43.9%18 W · 23 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4bb2…a656backed Saints | 48c | 2,083$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$999.84 | 140 | 35%49 W · 91 L | -12.0wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Saints | 48c | 1,843$885 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$884.64 | 1,065 | 51.3%546 W · 519 L | +25.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Saints | 49c | 1,633$800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$800.17 | 206 | 61.2%126 W · 80 L | +12.3wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Falcons | 52c | 1,486$768 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$718.39 | 533 | 48.4%258 W · 275 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe403…3d50backed Saints | 47c | 1,400$658 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$658 | 71 | 43.7%31 W · 40 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53e5…6177backed Saints | 46c | 1,185$545 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$544.93 | 144 | 50%72 W · 72 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Falcons | 53c | 500$265 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235 | 650 | 48.3%314 W · 336 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x502b…a1d5backed Saints | 48c | 500$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 187 | 44.9%84 W · 103 L | +5.7wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Falcons | 53c | 447.46$237 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.3 | 1,196 | 49.9%597 W · 599 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6036…d2ccbacked Saints | 47c | 434.61$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.29 | 121 | 51.2%62 W · 59 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1802…d00fbacked Falcons | 54c | 333.33$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.33 | 66 | 51.5%34 W · 32 L | +7.5wins | +0.11per pick | 40cpaid | +9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x387c…9188backed Falcons | 54c | 277.78$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.78 | 44 | 63.6%28 W · 16 L | +2.7wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc684…2228backed Falcons | 55c | 277.77$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125 | 281 | 51.6%145 W · 136 L | +20.1wins | +0.07per pick | 44cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8bdd…0cc1backed Saints | 47c | 212.77$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -2.4wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -50.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8351…9bebbacked Saints | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 163 | 46%75 W · 88 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Falcons | 52c | 203.3$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.59 | 834 | 47.1%393 W · 441 L | +9.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7681…ac03backed Falcons | 54c | 200$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92 | 105 | 37.1%39 W · 66 L | +4.3wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x12fe…38cfbacked Saints | 47c | 200$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94 | 315 | 40.6%128 W · 187 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x068f…4594backed Falcons | 54c | 185.19$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.19 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2203…e5a1backed Falcons | 54c | 185.19$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.19 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Falcons | 51c | 150$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.5 | 594 | 53.7%319 W · 275 L | +24.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Falcons | 51c | 130.06$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.73 | 473 | 48.4%229 W · 244 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe50b…c2a8backed Saints | 48c | 120$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.6 | 243 | 52.7%128 W · 115 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0078…bca0backed Falcons | 54c | 100$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 227 | 45.4%103 W · 124 L | -7.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0b…cd84backed Saints | 48c | 100$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 80 | 47.5%38 W · 42 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad95…c164backed Saints | 49c | 73.42$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.98 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +2.2wins | +0.36per pick | 47cpaid | +78.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf9bb…a884backed Saints | 47c | 70.85$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.3 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29c1…012cbacked Falcons | 54c | 60$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.6 | 67 | 53.7%36 W · 31 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1fa…f3bebacked Saints | 48c | 51.28$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.4 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41b7…f6babacked Saints | 46c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 297 | 51.5%153 W · 144 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8717…49a8backed Saints | 48c | 40.83$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 141 | 54.6%77 W · 64 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb12…f057backed Saints | 44c | 36$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.84 | 87 | 50.6%44 W · 43 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Falcons | 56c | 36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.84 | 356 | 48%171 W · 185 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Saints (-2.5)this page
- Falcons vs. SaintsFalcons won
- Falcons vs. Saints: 1H MoneylineFalcons won
- Falcons vs. Saints: 1H O/U 19.5Over won
- Falcons vs. Saints: 1H O/U 20.5Over won
- Falcons vs. Saints: O/U 38.5Under won
- Falcons vs. Saints: O/U 39.5Under won
- Falcons vs. Saints: O/U 40.5Under won
- Falcons vs. Saints: O/U 41.5Under won
- Spread: Falcons (-2.5)Falcons won
- Spread: Falcons (-3.5)Falcons won
- Spread: Saints (-1.5)Falcons won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.