NFL · resolved market
Spread: Saints (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7d2c4659b8d397b7ed8fa1ec0962a6c86e8540729fd57311526172864d0648e2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Falconsof Saints, Falcons
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,912
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,069
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,912 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1433…56a0backed Falcons | 51c | 8,248$4,206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,041.52 | 64 | 51.6%33 W · 31 L | +3.1wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a77…9d74backed Saints | 49c | 8,163$4,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,999.87 | 373 | 50.9%190 W · 183 L | +12.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ef5…325ebacked Falcons | 52c | 1,158$602 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$555.69 | 111 | 54.1%60 W · 51 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe5f…d795backed Saints | 48c | 1,000$480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$480 | 114 | 52.6%60 W · 54 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Falcons | 48c | 966.04$466 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500 | 1,196 | 49.9%597 W · 599 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8351…9bebbacked Saints | 53c | 566.04$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 163 | 46%75 W · 88 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Falcons | 49c | 520.63$254 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$266.41 | 865 | 47.9%414 W · 451 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x741c…73f3backed Saints | 51c | 390$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.9 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -2.0wins | -0.11per pick | 42cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb8d8…66a7backed Saints | 53c | 210$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.3 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc4d…f0b8backed Saints | 51c | 200$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.26 | 134 | 48.5%65 W · 69 L | -9.4wins | -0.07per pick | 56cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xabdf…3cbcbacked Saints | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 54 | 44.4%24 W · 30 L | -3.5wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x08b5…5a6ebacked Saints | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 36 | 58.3%21 W · 15 L | +3.1wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Falcons | 48c | 196.8$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.09 | 834 | 47.1%393 W · 441 L | +9.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Saints | 52c | 195$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.4 | 553 | 45%249 W · 304 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Falcons | 48c | 195$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.71 | 1,065 | 51.3%546 W · 519 L | +25.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Saints | 48c | 100$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 736 | 51.2%377 W · 359 L | +25.9wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Falcons | 47c | 71.92$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.1 | 414 | 50.5%209 W · 205 L | +5.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0b…cd84backed Falcons | 49c | 66.67$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 80 | 47.5%38 W · 42 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc660…bd28backed Saints | 48c | 57.69$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.69 | 67 | 64.2%43 W · 24 L | +9.7wins | +0.14per pick | 50cpaid | +35.3%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Saints | 52c | 41.67$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.67 | 206 | 61.2%126 W · 80 L | +12.3wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3552…f07bbacked Falcons | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.67 | 62 | 46.8%29 W · 33 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf1aa…6ed0backed Saints | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -2.6wins | -0.33per pick | 45cpaid | -76.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7af0…d9d5backed Falcons | 48c | 31.25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.25 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f6e…6a74backed Falcons | 49c | 30.61$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.61 | 121 | 48.8%59 W · 62 L | -10.7wins | -0.09per pick | 58cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3a45…36dcbacked Saints | 51c | 27.45$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 39 | 41%16 W · 23 L | -3.9wins | -0.10per pick | 51cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Falcons | 49c | 26$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.26 | 363 | 41.9%152 W · 211 L | -13.5wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Saints (-1.5)this page
- Falcons vs. SaintsFalcons won
- Falcons vs. Saints: 1H MoneylineFalcons won
- Falcons vs. Saints: 1H O/U 19.5Over won
- Falcons vs. Saints: 1H O/U 20.5Over won
- Falcons vs. Saints: O/U 38.5Under won
- Falcons vs. Saints: O/U 39.5Under won
- Falcons vs. Saints: O/U 40.5Under won
- Falcons vs. Saints: O/U 41.5Under won
- Spread: Falcons (-2.5)Falcons won
- Spread: Falcons (-3.5)Falcons won
- Spread: Saints (-2.5)Falcons won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.