Tennis · resolved market
Set Handicap: Musetti (-1.5) vs Faria (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x690defd8bb83d4fa0b614fa6baa04dfa4604ab2e6291fa1cc87d449a5435be6c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Musettiof Musetti, Faria
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,974
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,972
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,974 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x99f0…9495backed Faria | 49c | 3,067$1,516 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,516.19 | 2,174 | 36.9%802 W · 1,372 L | +39.5wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked Musetti | 51c | 1,901$970 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$931.49 | 4,241 | 52.6%2,232 W · 2,009 L | +65.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77d5…732ebacked Musetti | 50c | 1,500$750 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$750 | 345 | 55.1%190 W · 155 L | +19.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc60b…d9f7backed Musetti | 51c | 950.86$481 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$470.04 | 354 | 39.8%141 W · 213 L | -15.0wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc5ff…abd0backed Faria | 49c | 528.31$259 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$258.87 | 289 | 47.8%138 W · 151 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b14…3ca3backed Musetti | 44c | 444.43$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$248.88 | 494 | 47.2%233 W · 261 L | +12.6wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3308…f04bbacked Faria | 50c | 413.92$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.61 | 631 | 44.1%278 W · 353 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c99…8b23backed Faria | 52c | 384.62$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 161 | 60.2%97 W · 64 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb421…8856backed Faria | 56c | 248.04$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.9 | 1,776 | 48.6%863 W · 913 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a55…a82abacked Musetti | 51c | 147.22$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.22 | 327 | 47.7%156 W · 171 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9deb…536fbacked Faria | 51c | 120$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.2 | 146 | 56.2%82 W · 64 L | +10.1wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +16%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb06b…10fabacked Musetti | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 46 | 60.9%28 W · 18 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x272d…bc2fbacked Faria | 56c | 96.85$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.24 | 366 | 57.7%211 W · 155 L | +7.8wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69b9…a5d5backed Faria | 56c | 89.29$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 196 | 57.1%112 W · 84 L | +12.6wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa6db…3155backed Faria | 50c | 69.53$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.61 | 553 | 47.6%263 W · 290 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae63…9dcdbacked Musetti | 51c | 62.75$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.75 | 205 | 52.2%107 W · 98 L | -10.0wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2889…edcfbacked Faria | 51c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 147 | 57.8%85 W · 62 L | +8.9wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Faria | 48c | 47.48$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.79 | 2,375 | 51.1%1,213 W · 1,162 L | +8.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a4a…3026backed Musetti | 52c | 47.16$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.64 | 213 | 53.5%114 W · 99 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a6a…56bdbacked Faria | 49c | 40$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.49 | 603 | 41.1%248 W · 355 L | -26.8wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x36b3…e421backed Faria | 48c | 39.16$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.8 | 852 | 50%426 W · 426 L | +22.4wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc75b…3ea7backed Musetti | 52c | 26.52$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.73 | 1,226 | 52%637 W · 589 L | +44.7wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2810…6471backed Faria | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -20%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Set Handicap: Musetti (-1.5) vs Faria (+1.5)this page
- Cincinnati Open: Completed Match: Jaime Faria vs Lorenzo MusettiYes won
- Cincinnati Open: Jaime Faria vs Lorenzo MusettiLorenzo Musetti won
- Faria vs. Musetti: Match O/U 22.5Under won
- Jaime Faria vs. Lorenzo Musetti: Total Sets O/U 2.5Under 2.5 won
- Set 1 Winner: Faria vs MusettiMusetti won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.