Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 5°C on April 8?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6945067059ab5cac2ebece9d8147083f09f91777c1bfff3e61572efd317c2427
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,313
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,995
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,313 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x477f…9144backed Yes | 1c | 949.95$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.92 | 97 | 41.2%40 W · 57 L | +4.8wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x91ef…b0f2backed Yes | 1c | 925.84$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.53 | 168 | 32.7%55 W · 113 L | +8.8wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x938d…8674backed Yes | 26c | 592.33$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.15 | 467 | 33.4%156 W · 311 L | +21.4wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 77c | 423.08$326 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.68 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 19c | 324.82$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.28 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 18c | 314.54$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.84 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa7f3…d56cbacked Yes | 36c | 262.85$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.56 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 32c | 249.21$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.56 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x681b…8a5abacked Yes | 19c | 245.11$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.08 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa631…7651backed Yes | 34c | 191.32$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.39 | 102 | 25.5%26 W · 76 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed No | 66c | 160.46$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.94 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 64c | 159.8$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.1 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 12c | 142.02$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.52 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x2967…4ae7backed Yes | 26c | 137.42$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.72 | 257 | 25.7%66 W · 191 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Yes | 23c | 136.26$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.95 | 471 | 36.5%172 W · 299 L | -21.7wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe00f…abd9backed Yes | 38c | 121.64$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.74 | 121 | 47.9%58 W · 63 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd39…43a8backed Yes | 25c | 119.96$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.88 | 123 | 17.9%22 W · 101 L | -10.0wins | -0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -35%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 71c | 115.67$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.78 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbc80…56a7backed Yes | 27c | 98.79$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.67 | 164 | 12.2%20 W · 144 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 75c | 85.97$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.43 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 30c | 84.72$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.45 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x349d…155cbacked Yes | 35c | 80.81$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.04 | 43 | 34.9%15 W · 28 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7fa8…fd4ebacked Yes | 36c | 74.01$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.39 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb897…7007backed Yes | 30c | 72.22$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.67 | 110 | 38.2%42 W · 68 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc5eb…1e17backed Yes | 38c | 66.47$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.29 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed No | 68c | 54.44$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.46 | 590 | 21.7%128 W · 462 L | -24.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaff7…fb8bbacked Yes | 24c | 53.64$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.08 | 513 | 21.2%109 W · 404 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed Yes | 26c | 49.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2396…66d7backed No | 68c | 49.97$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.04 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -50.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed No | 70c | 49.34$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.76 | 985 | 71%699 W · 286 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 76c | 47.73$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.57 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4453…2b6bbacked No | 70c | 47.41$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.44 | 130 | 81.5%106 W · 24 L | +11.9wins | +0.09per pick | 72cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x01f6…b41fbacked Yes | 36c | 43.71$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.57 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5245…00c4backed Yes | 34c | 43.71$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.98 | 296 | 40.5%120 W · 176 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 66c | 42.12$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.2 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bc1…5f7bbacked No | 71c | 41.96$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.17 | 105 | 69.5%73 W · 32 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x487d…6813backed Yes | 25c | 40.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 61 | 42.6%26 W · 35 L | +3.4wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe1d2…0ecfbacked Yes | 32c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 205 | 46.8%96 W · 109 L | +9.1wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x99c4…0c89backed Yes | 42c | 39.36$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.53 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff18…da47backed Yes | 31c | 39$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.08 | 264 | 34.1%90 W · 174 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 72c | 37.16$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.57 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e8b…4639backed Yes | 40c | 34.85$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.11 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x036d…e888backed Yes | 32c | 34.46$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.19 | 78 | 71.8%56 W · 22 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 68cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 69c | 32.92$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.18 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0a…5f98backed Yes | 43c | 29.39$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.71 | 395 | 35.4%140 W · 255 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe233…c70bbacked No | 73c | 29.19$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.88 | 549 | 66.7%366 W · 183 L | -27.1wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2097…8063backed No | 69c | 28.57$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.77 | 96 | 68.8%66 W · 30 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 60c | 28$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.2 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe166…7227backed No | 75c | 25.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.49 | 97 | 79.4%77 W · 20 L | +8.9wins | +0.09per pick | 70cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x39fa…0b7dbacked No | 76c | 23.68$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.68 | 407 | 77.1%314 W · 93 L | +28.1wins | +0.07per pick | 70cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb1c4…293dbacked No | 69c | 23.16$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.25 | 39 | 71.8%28 W · 11 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 69cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b2…21f4backed No | 69c | 21.04$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.52 | 297 | 70.4%209 W · 88 L | +15.2wins | +0.05per pick | 65cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x12cc…275dbacked No | 79c | 21$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.41 | 54 | 63%34 W · 20 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…62cbbacked No | 78c | 18.84$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.17 | 118 | 74.6%88 W · 30 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 72cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea0d…c1b6backed No | 78c | 16.8$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.7 | 216 | 76.4%165 W · 51 L | +12.5wins | +0.06per pick | 71cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4e04…d367backed No | 69c | 16.42$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.06 | 89 | 69.7%62 W · 27 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6a9…2227backed No | 72c | 16.11$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.45 | 71 | 73.2%52 W · 19 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 74cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4c3…4613backed No | 77c | 15.28$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.56 | 77 | 77.9%60 W · 17 L | +5.1wins | +0.07per pick | 71cpaid | +8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1831…6c99backed No | 71c | 14.56$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.26 | 349 | 34.1%119 W · 230 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc52a…e37abacked No | 77c | 13.89$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.14 | 182 | 72%131 W · 51 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 73cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 5°C on April 8?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 10°C on April 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 2°C or below on April 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 3°C on April 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 4°C on April 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 6°C on April 8?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 7°C on April 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 8°C on April 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 9°C on April 8?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.