Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 6°C on April 8?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe0a94c040cf9572a7f15507ecd28d777f364b80c49909ec5db0dd07006ab661d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $31,733
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $32,141
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $31,733 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 73 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xff9b…6a02backed No | 0c | 18,002$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 158 | 34.2%54 W · 104 L | +8.8wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 43c | 435.43$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.23 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 20c | 316.68$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$253.26 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 59c | 305.42$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.08 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd75…d07ebacked Yes | 52c | 290.18$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.6 | 154 | 33.8%52 W · 102 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 44c | 287.26$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.1 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 30c | 248.57$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 27c | 221.42$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.09 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x681b…8a5abacked No | 58c | 198.72$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.6 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 28c | 198.36$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.49 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2232…e889backed Yes | 44c | 179.8$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.69 | 165 | 29.1%48 W · 117 L | +12.9wins | +0.08per pick | 21cpaid | +62.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 50c | 168.96$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.88 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 30c | 166.67$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed No | 42c | 132.7$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.16 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd36…a832backed Yes | 32c | 131.89$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.61 | 650 | 43.4%282 W · 368 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb55c…04eabacked No | 80c | 119.65$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.2 | 201 | 72.6%146 W · 55 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 76cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5bbb…1928backed No | 13c | 114.22$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -5.2wins | -0.19per pick | 56cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 56c | 109.15$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.52 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed No | 16c | 107.07$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.59 | 590 | 21.7%128 W · 462 L | -24.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7fa8…fd4ebacked Yes | 40c | 103.41$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.99 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1831…6c99backed No | 11c | 101.42$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.61 | 349 | 34.1%119 W · 230 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa2fb…ae7bbacked Yes | 21c | 100$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79 | 90 | 28.9%26 W · 64 L | +6.8wins | +0.08per pick | 21cpaid | +35%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3a1d…55c4backed Yes | 42c | 96.43$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.4 | 33 | 39.4%13 W · 20 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5245…00c4backed Yes | 45c | 88.09$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.59 | 296 | 40.5%120 W · 176 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 53c | 71.88$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.23 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 47c | 70.85$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.34 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x1bc1…5f7bbacked No | 77c | 70.27$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.09 | 105 | 69.5%73 W · 32 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x349d…155cbacked Yes | 40c | 70.1$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.88 | 43 | 34.9%15 W · 28 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e41…5e0cbacked No | 53c | 67.73$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.81 | 1,061 | 47.9%508 W · 553 L | +32.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb897…7007backed Yes | 30c | 67.42$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.24 | 110 | 38.2%42 W · 68 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8bbc…1d9ebacked No | 80c | 60.76$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.61 | 115 | 69.6%80 W · 35 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 69cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd91…03cbbacked Yes | 48c | 60$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.5 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -2.0wins | -0.12per pick | 53cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 43c | 57.68$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.62 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 52c | 56.04$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.7 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0a…5f98backed Yes | 46c | 53.97$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.35 | 395 | 35.4%140 W · 255 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 31c | 53$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.83 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 55c | 43.12$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.47 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01f6…b41fbacked Yes | 44c | 43.02$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.16 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e8b…4639backed Yes | 46c | 41.13$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.21 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ee9…014bbacked No | 61c | 40$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.4 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 70cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x72ca…0269backed No | 62c | 40$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.8 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x407d…87b0backed No | 62c | 39.04$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.21 | 36 | 69.4%25 W · 11 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b1f…9ff2backed Yes | 44c | 38.29$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.29 | 323 | 52.9%171 W · 152 L | +19.6wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 46c | 37.31$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.22 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99c4…0c89backed Yes | 50c | 36.65$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.14 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9588…45b9backed No | 61c | 35$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.35 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -2.8wins | -0.21per pick | 68cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb13b…295abacked No | 62c | 35$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.7 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.12per pick | 68cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x63ac…3fc9backed No | 71c | 34.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 83 | 66.3%55 W · 28 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3506…ad95backed No | 69c | 32.37$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.3 | 43 | 55.8%24 W · 19 L | -3.2wins | -0.07per pick | 63cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 77c | 32.16$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.86 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7360…1848backed Yes | 60c | 31.98$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.79 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.18per pick | 46cpaid | -51.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a24…2015backed Yes | 57c | 30.19$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.13 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa448…f55dbacked No | 62c | 30$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.6 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -2.9wins | -0.19per pick | 66cpaid | -27%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x487d…6813backed Yes | 43c | 29.12$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.53 | 61 | 42.6%26 W · 35 L | +3.4wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb347…0b22backed Yes | 39c | 29.11$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.76 | 46 | 41.3%19 W · 27 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x477f…9144backed Yes | 47c | 27.45$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.64 | 97 | 41.2%40 W · 57 L | +4.8wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9bda…439fbacked No | 59c | 27.1$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.99 | 594 | 40.6%241 W · 353 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd865…4778backed No | 73c | 25.45$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.58 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed Yes | 59c | 24.53$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.14 | 1,026 | 64%657 W · 369 L | +49.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4453…2b6bbacked Yes | 70c | 23.66$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.19 | 130 | 81.5%106 W · 24 L | +11.9wins | +0.09per pick | 72cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfca1…c1bebacked Yes | 45c | 23.63$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.98 | 36 | 61.1%22 W · 14 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0043…dadebacked No | 63c | 23.08$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.44 | 39 | 23.1%9 W · 30 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c9…d2b8backed Yes | 50c | 22.68$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.24 | 535 | 47.5%254 W · 281 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3222…79ccbacked No | 67c | 22.18$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.86 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb537…14ccbacked No | 72c | 20.25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.58 | 414 | 60.1%249 W · 165 L | -21.5wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf899…0759backed Yes | 55c | 19.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 267 | 38.6%103 W · 164 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6793…1869backed No | 58c | 19.69$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 315 | 64.8%204 W · 111 L | -13.5wins | -0.04per pick | 69cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x422a…c395backed Yes | 55c | 19.57$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.78 | 93 | 49.5%46 W · 47 L | -7.2wins | -0.08per pick | 57cpaid | -22%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe9da…ed70backed No | 71c | 19.42$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.79 | 763 | 71.4%545 W · 218 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ae3…3401backed Yes | 70c | 19.4$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.82 | 274 | 63.9%175 W · 99 L | -15.0wins | -0.05per pick | 69cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 61c | 18.77$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.47 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f88…da69backed No | 68c | 18.49$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.58 | 179 | 49.2%88 W · 91 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 6°C on April 8?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 10°C on April 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 2°C or below on April 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 3°C on April 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 4°C on April 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 5°C on April 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 7°C on April 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 8°C on April 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 9°C on April 8?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.