Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 37°C on July 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6963336ab5d08123862d257fa46fa059a2694047585b9b5c8a9e18ebf26d7523
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,499
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,079
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,499 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 29c | 455.33$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.11 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3175…9bb2backed Yes | 36c | 388.98$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.27 | 166 | 42.8%71 W · 95 L | +7.0wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 60c | 268.93$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.71 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…1a00backed Yes | 40c | 250$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 361 | 50.4%182 W · 179 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 28c | 192.02$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.57 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed Yes | 37c | 171.28$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.63 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3a…3df7backed Yes | 34c | 156.84$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.74 | 452 | 53.3%241 W · 211 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed Yes | 39c | 151.28$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 73c | 149.08$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.35 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 33c | 106.61$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.47 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea7c…41f6backed Yes | 39c | 93.61$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.51 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 72c | 73.7$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.95 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b3a…3bb3backed Yes | 39c | 62.77$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.48 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.30per pick | 36cpaid | +90.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b1…79d7backed No | 66c | 62.25$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.86 | 889 | 73.2%651 W · 238 L | +20.3wins | +0.02per pick | 71cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked Yes | 36c | 60.15$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.66 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4455…6b2abacked Yes | 26c | 59.32$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.56 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.9wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 35c | 53.54$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.64 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x46e1…dc9dbacked Yes | 29c | 51.56$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf668…e47abacked Yes | 28c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 181 | 31.5%57 W · 124 L | -6.9wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x06f2…8798backed No | 64c | 49.9$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.97 | 165 | 66.1%109 W · 56 L | -8.4wins | -0.05per pick | 71cpaid | -8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 67c | 48.08$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.96 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 39c | 44.7$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.4 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 64c | 41.59$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.08 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 61c | 36.03$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.18 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb31…3952backed Yes | 31c | 34.94$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b73…174ebacked No | 64c | 30.98$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.15 | 172 | 47.7%82 W · 90 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 66c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.2 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b8e…aa69backed No | 66c | 29.41$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 308 | 49%151 W · 157 L | -8.3wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed No | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 1,043 | 62.9%656 W · 387 L | -11.9wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked No | 61c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 69c | 16.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.22 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc05…9a76backed No | 70c | 16.67$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 284 | 55.6%158 W · 126 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 73c | 14.2$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.83 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 79c | 14.1$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.96 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f12…59ddbacked No | 74c | 14$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.64 | 940 | 66.4%624 W · 316 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 37°C on July 15?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 35°C on July 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 36°C on July 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 38°C or higher on July 15?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.