Mls · resolved market
Will Atlanta United FC vs. Real Salt Lake end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x696fbb2797210c775278295730edc5421a8be651c9078ad1aeb4e10ce7c34a03
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,739
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,739 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbca0…d7a0backed Yes | 18c | 5,540$987 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$987.14 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -2.3wins | -0.19per pick | 36cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x30ce…fdcebacked No | 76c | 1,755$1,329 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$426.12 | 147 | 61.2%90 W · 57 L | +20.8wins | +0.14per pick | 47cpaid | +43.6%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x0336…4bb0backed Yes | 28c | 1,432$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b3d…8db7backed Yes | 7c | 1,200$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed Yes | 20c | 1,014$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.65 | 70 | 31.4%22 W · 48 L | -3.6wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 23c | 887.58$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.27 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Yes | 25c | 844.35$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.01 | 1,270 | 48%610 W · 660 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Yes | 28c | 645.31$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.69 | 429 | 47.1%202 W · 227 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab00…b2b1backed Yes | 25c | 356.82$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed No | 76c | 332.13$254 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.52 | 263 | 46.8%123 W · 140 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ecb…7645backed No | 80c | 276.28$221 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.52 | 198 | 47.5%94 W · 104 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5542…01cebacked No | 73c | 235.75$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.72 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.12per pick | 70cpaid | +16%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked No | 75c | 204$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 236 | 43.6%103 W · 133 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed Yes | 23c | 178.55$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.38 | 549 | 49%269 W · 280 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b1…242fbacked Yes | 28c | 142.86$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +2.0wins | +0.12per pick | 41cpaid | +45%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc498…ff07backed No | 76c | 129.74$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.14 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x955e…10c9backed No | 76c | 125.21$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.05 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Yes | 18c | 125$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.51 | 413 | 39%161 W · 252 L | -8.1wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa7be…ef59backed No | 76c | 101.87$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.45 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked Yes | 25c | 101.35$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 53 | 49.1%26 W · 27 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed No | 80c | 98.71$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.74 | 395 | 67.1%265 W · 130 L | +60.8wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +45.3%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x6f14…c845backed Yes | 28c | 89.29$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6580…6fa8backed Yes | 26c | 85$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.1 | 40 | 17.5%7 W · 33 L | -2.8wins | -0.07per pick | 24cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x870c…b899backed Yes | 28c | 84.14$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.56 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed No | 74c | 74$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.17 | 288 | 51.4%148 W · 140 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8405…2163backed Yes | 28c | 67.86$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 34 | 26.5%9 W · 25 L | -3.9wins | -0.11per pick | 38cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x287d…4867backed Yes | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -2.0wins | -0.25per pick | 38cpaid | -75%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Yes | 24c | 60.5$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.38 | 371 | 38.8%144 W · 227 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Yes | 26c | 47.87$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.45 | 259 | 34.4%89 W · 170 L | -28.1wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6073…d82fbacked Yes | 25c | 47.71$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c41…117bbacked Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73ed…06d5backed No | 73c | 29.18$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.88 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.25per pick | 58cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ba…c5d8backed No | 73c | 28.33$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.55 | 85 | 52.9%45 W · 40 L | -6.2wins | -0.07per pick | 60cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed No | 72c | 28.21$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.9 | 803 | 58%466 W · 337 L | +5.9wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26c8…c50abacked No | 73c | 27.4$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +64.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcf07…9c4fbacked No | 73c | 27.4$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.9wins | -0.31per pick | 65cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1455…e5cdbacked No | 75c | 27$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.75 | 124 | 51.6%64 W · 60 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dcf…4eb4backed No | 75c | 26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.5 | 44 | 59.1%26 W · 18 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa488…91c3backed No | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -3.5wins | -0.27per pick | 58cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x75e3…4bd5backed No | 73c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.05 | 20 | 75%15 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 72cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Atlanta United FC vs. Real Salt Lake end in a draw?this page
- Will Atlanta United FC win on 2026-03-07?No won
- Will Real Salt Lake win on 2026-03-07?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.