Dota2 · resolved market
Game Handicap: Liquid (-1.5) vs Virtus.pro (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x698a080934f51e469e026e33d96d7b3871d0f9c42ddca0e1de3787d9337c8c9e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Team Liquidof Team Liquid, Virtus.pro
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,221
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,453
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,221 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6111…4742backed Team Liquid | 46c | 1,080$502 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$578.2 | 49 | 57.1%28 W · 21 L | +3.7wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…a348backed Virtus.pro | 59c | 670.15$393 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$392.55 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.19per pick | 59cpaid | -42.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8052…1124backed Virtus.pro | 53c | 500$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$265 | 171 | 46.8%80 W · 91 L | -3.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b5f…3397backed Team Liquid | 42c | 330.2$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.51 | 237 | 46.8%111 W · 126 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x27b1…ed2bbacked Virtus.pro | 50c | 300.5$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.69 | 18 | 72.2%13 W · 5 L | +3.2wins | +0.18per pick | 54cpaid | +47.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2ca6…6a20backed Virtus.pro | 59c | 256.5$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151 | 174 | 43.7%76 W · 98 L | -11.2wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -13%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf6ee…0e41backed Team Liquid | 41c | 245.25$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.7 | 204 | 48%98 W · 106 L | +8.2wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Team Liquid | 53c | 230$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.7 | 1,164 | 47.2%549 W · 615 L | -29.1wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd4e3…d5f4backed Team Liquid | 49c | 204.49$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.49 | 166 | 41.6%69 W · 97 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -12%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked Team Liquid | 41c | 186.67$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.14 | 562 | 43.2%243 W · 319 L | +14.0wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9ea…706cbacked Virtus.pro | 55c | 154.55$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85 | 109 | 41.3%45 W · 64 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa965…7f73backed Virtus.pro | 53c | 110$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.3 | 261 | 54.8%143 W · 118 L | +11.6wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb0f…b652backed Team Liquid | 40c | 100.5$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.69 | 225 | 52.4%118 W · 107 L | +26.0wins | +0.12per pick | 41cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x75f3…0e78backed Virtus.pro | 58c | 86.21$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 412 | 48.8%201 W · 211 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3d…316cbacked Virtus.pro | 55c | 64$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.2 | 152 | 50%76 W · 76 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x25d6…2998backed Team Liquid | 47c | 42.66$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.66 | 49 | 55.1%27 W · 22 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83c8…3b6cbacked Virtus.pro | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 913 | 56.1%512 W · 401 L | +16.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6202…8872backed Virtus.pro | 60c | 35$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 120 | 54.2%65 W · 55 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x55e7…4fb9backed Virtus.pro | 55c | 33$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.15 | 78 | 51.3%40 W · 38 L | +5.1wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8b9d…9b0ebacked Virtus.pro | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 311 | 26%81 W · 230 L | -17.5wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x127e…cca1backed Team Liquid | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 461 | 50.8%234 W · 227 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f08…e919backed Team Liquid | 52c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 308 | 34.1%105 W · 203 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Game Handicap: Liquid (-1.5) vs Virtus.pro (+1.5)this page
- Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs Team Liquid (BO3) - DreamLeague Group ATeam Liquid won
- Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs Team Liquid - Game 1 WinnerTeam Liquid won
- Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs Team Liquid - Game 2 WinnerTeam Liquid won
- First Blood in Game 2?Team Liquid won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.